Data-Driven Analytic Differentiation via High Gain Observers and Gaussian Process Priors

The presented paper tackles the problem of modeling an unknown function, and its first $r-1$ derivatives, out of scattered and poor-quality data. The considered setting embraces a large number of use cases addressed in the literature and fits especially well in the context of control barrier functions, where high-order derivatives of the safe set are required to preserve the safety of the controlled system. The approach builds on a cascade of high-gain observers and a set of Gaussian process regressors trained on the observers' data. The proposed structure allows for high robustness against measurement noise and flexibility with respect to the employed sampling law. Unlike previous approaches in the field, where a large number of samples are required to fit correctly the unknown function derivatives, here we suppose to have access only to a small window of samples, sliding in time. The paper presents performance bounds on the attained regression error and numerical simulations showing how the proposed method outperforms previous approaches

Trade protection along supply chains

During the last decades, the United States has applied increasingly high trade protection against China. We combine detailed information on US antidumping (AD) duties— the most widely used trade barrier — with US input-output data to study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we propose a new instrument for AD protection, which combines exogenous variation in the political importance of industries with their historical experience in AD proceedings. We find that tariffs have large negative effects on downstream industries, decreasing employment, wages, sales, and investment. Our baseline estimates for 1988-2016 indicate that, due to AD protection against China, around 1.8 million US jobs were lost in downstream industries, with no significant job gains in protected sectors. When we extend the analysis to measures introduced under President Trump, we find that around 500,000 jobs were lost during the first two years of his term. We also provide evidence of the mechanisms behind the negative effects of protection along supply chains: AD duties decrease imports and raise production costs for downstream industries

Trade protection along supply chains: how antidumping measures against China hurt downstream industries

Production processes are often no longer confined to a single country; supply chains can be fragmented across great distances. By contrast, tariffs are often used by individual countries to protect certain industries. In new research, which studies the effects of US antidumping duties applied against China, Chad P. Bown, Paola Conconi, Aksel Erbahar and Lorenzo Trimarchi find that these protectionist [...

Suspiciously timed trade disputes

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Suspiciously timed trade disputes

This paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity

Echocardiographic assessment of subclinical left ventricular eccentric hypertrophy in adult-onset GHD patients by geometric remodeling: an observational case-control study

BACKGROUND: Most patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) show high body mass index. Overweight subjects, but GHD patients, were demonstrated to have high left ventricular mass index (LVMi) and abnormal LV geometric remodeling. We sought to study these characteristics in a group of GHD patients, in an attempt to establish the BMI-independent role of GHD. METHODS: Fifty-four patients, 28 F and 26 M, aged 45.9 ± 13.1, with adult-onset GHD (pituitary adenomas 48.2%, empty sella 27.8%, pituitary inflammation 5.5%, cranio-pharyngioma 3.7%, not identified pathogenesis 14.8%) were enrolled. To minimize any possible interferences of BMI on the aim of this study, the control group included 20 age- and weight-matched healthy subjects. The LV geometry was identified by the relationship between LVMi (cut-off 125 g/m(2)) and relative wall thickness (cut-off 0.45) at echocardiography. RESULTS: There was no significant between-group difference in resting cardiac morphology and function, nor when considering age-related discrepancy. The majority of patients had normal-low LVM/LVMi, but about one fourth of them showed higher values. These findings correlated to relatively high circulating IGF-1 and systolic blood pressure at rest. The main LV geometric pattern was eccentric hypertrophy in 22% of GHD population (26% of with severe GHD) and in 15% of controls (p = NS). CONCLUSION: Though the lack of significant differences in resting LV morphology and function, about 25% of GHD patients showed high LVMi (consisting of eccentric hypertrophy), not dissimilarly to overweight controls. This finding, which prognostic role is well known in obese and hypertensive patients, is worthy to be investigated in GHD patients through wider controlled trials

Primary growth hormone insensitivity (Laron syndrome) and acquired hypothyroidism: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Primary growth hormone resistance or growth hormone insensitivity syndrome, also known as Laron syndrome, is a hereditary disease caused by deletions or different types of mutations in the growth hormone receptor gene or by post-receptor defects. This disorder is characterized by a clinical appearance of severe growth hormone deficiency with high levels of circulating growth hormone in contrast to low serum insulin-like growth factor 1 values.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 15-year-old Caucasian girl who was diagnosed with Silver-Russell syndrome at the age of four and a half years. Recombinant growth hormone was administered for 18 months without an appropriate increase in growth velocity. At the age of seven years, her serum growth hormone levels were high, and an insulin-like growth factor 1 generation test did not increase insulin-like growth factor 1 levels (baseline insulin-like growth factor 1 levels, 52 μg/L; reference range, 75 μg/L to 365 μg/L; and peak, 76 μg/L and 50 μg/L after 12 and 84 hours, respectively, from baseline). The genetic analysis showed that the patient was homozygous for the R217X mutation in the growth hormone receptor gene, which is characteristic of Laron syndrome. On the basis of these results, the diagnosis of primary growth hormone insensitivity syndrome was made, and recombinant insulin-like growth factor 1 therapy was initiated. The patient's treatment was well tolerated, but unexplained central hypothyroidism occurred at the age of 12.9 years. At the age of 15 years, when the patient's sexual development was almost completed and her menstrual cycle occurred irregularly, her height was 129.8 cm, which is 4.71 standard deviations below the median for normal girls her age.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The most important functional tests for the diagnosis of growth hormone insensitivity are the insulin-like growth factor 1 generation test and genetic analysis. Currently, the only effective treatment is daily administration of recombinant insulin-like growth factor 1 starting from early childhood. However, these patients show a dramatically impaired final height. In our case, unexplained central hypothyroidism occurred during treatment.</p

Dupilumab in the treatment of severe uncontrolled chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP): A multicentric observational Phase IV real-life study (DUPIREAL)

Background Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) is associated with significant morbidity and reduced health-related quality of life. Findings from clinical trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of dupilumab in CRSwNP, although real-world evidence is still limited. Methods This Phase IV real-life, observational, multicenter study assessed the effectiveness and safety of dupilumab in patients with severe uncontrolled CRSwNP (n = 648) over the first year of treatment. We collected data at baseline and after 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of follow-up. We focused on nasal polyps score (NPS), symptoms, and olfactory function. We stratified outcomes by comorbidities, previous surgery, and adherence to intranasal corticosteroids, and examined the success rates based on current guidelines, as well as potential predictors of response at each timepoint. Results We observed a significant decrease in NPS from a median value of 6 (IQR 5–6) at baseline to 1.0 (IQR 0.0–2.0) at 12 months (p &lt; .001), and a significant decrease in Sino-Nasal Outcomes Test-22 (SNOT-22) from a median score of 58 (IQR 49–70) at baseline to 11 (IQR 6–21; p &lt; .001) at 12 months. Sniffin' Sticks scores showed a significant increase over 12 months (p &lt; .001) compared to baseline. The results were unaffected by concomitant diseases, number of previous surgeries, and adherence to topical steroids, except for minor differences in rapidity of action. An excellent-moderate response was observed in 96.9% of patients at 12 months based on EPOS 2020 criteria. Conclusions Our findings from this large-scale real-life study support the effectiveness of dupilumab as an add-on therapy in patients with severe uncontrolled CRSwNP in reducing polyp size and improving the quality of life, severity of symptoms, nasal congestion, and smell

Essays in International Trade and Banking

This thesis consists of three chapters. The first two are regarding the political economy of international trade, the third is about empirical banking.Chapter 1 is titled "Suspiciously Timed Trade Disputes" and it is the result a joint work with Paola Conconi, David DeRemer, Georg Kirchsteiger, and Maurzio Zanardi. This Chapter is already published in the Volume 105 of the Journal of International Economics and it shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity. The second chapter, titled "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome", analyzes how trade policy can be used to smooth the effects of trade liberalizations. The recent backlash against free trade is partially motivated by the decline in manufacturing employment due to rising import competition from China. Politicians in high-income countries have extensively used antidumping (AD) measures and other temporary trade barriers to protect their economies from rising Chinese imports. To estimate the causal effect of trade protection on industry outcomes, I construct a new instrument for AD measures based on the importance of an industry in swing states and the industry's experience at filing AD petitions. In this paper, I first show that trade policy contained the rise of Chinese imports in protected sectors, decreasing the annual growth rate of US imports from China in a range between 3% and 14% compared to the non-protected sectors. Second, I show that these protectionist measures have contained the "China Syndrome". In manufacturing sectors protected by AD measures, the annual growth rate of employment was between 2% and 24% higher compared to non-protected sectors. I find that previous studies that neglect the moderating impact of AD have underestimated the negative effects of Chinese import competition on US manufacturing employment by between 5% and 15%.The third chapter, titled "Bank Lending Standards and Credit to Firms during the Great Recession", is a joint work with Lorenzo Ricci and Giovanni Soggia. This chapter investigates the impact of unforeseen shifts in lending standards on firm credit in Italy on the onset of the Great Recession, using data from the Regional Bank Lending Survey to disentangle the effects of loan supply and demand.We combine our measure of change in bank supply with bank-firm loans retrieved from the credit register. Our proposed empirical strategy presents several benefits: it allows us to (i) estimate the impact of credit supply in the absence of an exogenous shock to banks, (ii) analyze credit policy throughout the sample period, and (iii) disentangle the effect of geographical heterogeneity within Italy using the rich information from our survey data. The effect of supply shocks differs across types of loans. A firm with a revocable credit line from a bank that tightens its lending standards suffers a reduction in credit growth more than if it had borrowed from a bank with unchanged lending standard. On the extensive margin, a supply shock decreases the acceptance probability of a new loan with a pronounced effect for term loans.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublishe

Trade Policy and the China Syndrome

The recent backlash against free trade is partially motivated by the decline in manufacturing employment due to rising import competition from China. Previous studies about the “China syndrome” neglect the role of trade policy. This is surprising, given that politicians in high-income countries have extensively used antidumping (AD) measures to protect their economies from rising Chinese imports. In this paper, I estimate the causal effect of trade protection on imports and employment, by constructing a new instrument for AD measures based on industries’ importance in swing states and experience in filing AD petitions. I show that AD duties have reduced import competition, decreasing the annual growth rate of US imports from China by 0.40 percentage points on average. They have also helped contain the China syndrome, by increasing the annual growth rate of employment in protected industries by 0.07 percentage points. These results show that protectionist instruments allowed under GATT/WTO rules can be used to attenuate the effects of import competition on employment.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe