"Refsdal" meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223

Supernova "Refsdal," multiply imaged by cluster MACS1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a timescale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of supernova "Refsdal." A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one-third as bright as the brightest known image (i.e., H_(AB) ≈ 25.7 mag at peak and H_(AB) ≈ 26.7 mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct

The Cosmic Evolution of Faint Satellite Galaxies as a Test of Galaxy Formation and the Nature of Dark Matter

The standard cosmological model based on cold dark matter (CDM) predicts a large number of subhalos for each galaxy-size halo. It is well known that matching the subhalos to the observed properties of luminous satellites of galaxies in the local universe poses a significant challenge to our understanding of the astrophysics of galaxy formation. We show that the cosmic evolution and host mass dependence of the luminosity function of satellites provides a powerful new diagnostic to disentangle astrophysical effects from variations in the underlying dark matter mass function. We illustrate this by comparing the results of recent observations of satellites out to $z=0.8$ based on Hubble Space Telescope images with the predictions of three different sets of state-of-the art semi-analytic models with underlying CDM power spectra and one semi-analytic model with an underlying Warm Dark Matter (WDM) power spectrum. We find that even though CDM models provide a reasonable fit to the local luminosity function of satellites around galaxies comparable or slightly larger than the Milky Way, they do not reproduce the data as well for different redshift and host galaxy stellar mass. This tension indicates that further improvements are likely to be needed in the description of star formation if the models are to be reconciled with the data. The WDM model matches the observed mass dependence and redshift evolution of satellite galaxies more closely than any of the CDM models, indicating that a modification of the underlying power spectrum may offer an alternative solution to this tension. We conclude by presenting predictions for the color magnitude relation of satellite galaxies to demonstrate how future observations will be able to further distinguish between these models and help constrain baryonic and non-baryonic physics.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, revised to incorporate referee comment

The Structure & Dynamics of Massive Early-type Galaxies: On Homology, Isothermality and Isotropy inside one Effective Radius

Based on 58 SLACS strong-lens early-type galaxies with direct total-mass and stellar-velocity dispersion measurements, we find that inside one effective radius massive elliptical galaxies with M_eff >= 3x10^10 M_sun are well-approximated by a power-law ellipsoid with an average logaritmic density slope of = -dlog(rho_tot)/dlog(r)=2.085^{+0.025}_{-0.018} (random error on mean) for isotropic orbits with beta_r=0, +-0.1 (syst.) and sigma_gamma' <= 0.20^{+0.04}_{-0.02} intrinsic scatter (all errors indicate the 68 percent CL). We find no correlation of gamma'_LD with galaxy mass (M_eff), rescaled radius (i.e. R_einst/R_eff) or redshift, despite intrinsic differences in density-slope between galaxies. Based on scaling relations, the average logarithmic density slope can be derived in an alternative manner, fully independent from dynamics, yielding =1.959 +- 0.077. Agreement between the two values is reached for =0.45 +- 0.25, consistent with mild radial anisotropy. This agreement supports the robustness of our results, despite the increase in mass-to-light ratio with total galaxy mass: M_eff ~ L_{V,eff}^(1.363+-0.056). We conclude that massive early-type galaxies are structurally close-to homologous with close-to isothermal total density profiles (<=10 percent intrinsic scatter) and have at most some mild radial anisotropy. Our results provide new observational limits on galaxy formation and evolution scenarios, covering four Gyr look-back time.Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJL; 4 pages, 2 figure

The Sloan Lens ACS Survey. IX. Colors, Lensing and Stellar Masses of Early-type Galaxies

We present the current photometric dataset for the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) Survey, including HST photometry from ACS, WFPC2, and NICMOS. These data have enabled the confirmation of an additional 15 grade `A' (certain) lens systems, bringing the number of SLACS grade `A' lenses to 85; including 13 grade `B' (likely) systems, SLACS has identified nearly 100 lenses and lens candidates. Approximately 80% of the grade `A' systems have elliptical morphologies while ~10% show spiral structure; the remaining lenses have lenticular morphologies. Spectroscopic redshifts for the lens and source are available for every system, making SLACS the largest homogeneous dataset of galaxy-scale lenses to date. We have developed a novel Bayesian stellar population analysis code to determine robust stellar masses with accurate error estimates. We apply this code to deep, high-resolution HST imaging and determine stellar masses with typical statistical errors of 0.1 dex; we find that these stellar masses are unbiased compared to estimates obtained using SDSS photometry, provided that informative priors are used. The stellar masses range from 10^10.5 to 10^11.8 M$_\odot$ and the typical stellar mass fraction within the Einstein radius is 0.4, assuming a Chabrier IMF. The ensemble properties of the SLACS lens galaxies, e.g. stellar masses and projected ellipticities, appear to be indistinguishable from other SDSS galaxies with similar stellar velocity dispersions. This further supports that SLACS lenses are representative of the overall population of massive early-type galaxies with M* >~ 10^11 M$_\odot$, and are therefore an ideal dataset to investigate the kpc-scale distribution of luminous and dark matter in galaxies out to z ~ 0.5.Comment: 20 pages, 18 figures, 5 tables, published in Ap

Can dry merging explain the size evolution of early-type galaxies?

The characteristic size of early-type galaxies (ETGs) of given stellar mass is observed to increase significantly with cosmic time, from redshift z>2 to the present. A popular explanation for this size evolution is that ETGs grow through dissipationless ("dry") mergers, thus becoming less compact. Combining N-body simulations with up-to-date scaling relations of local ETGs, we show that such an explanation is problematic, because dry mergers do not decrease the galaxy stellar-mass surface-density enough to explain the observed size evolution, and also introduce substantial scatter in the scaling relations. Based on our set of simulations, we estimate that major and minor dry mergers increase half-light radius and projected velocity dispersion with stellar mass (M) as M^(1.09+/-0.29) and M^(0.07+/-0.11), respectively. This implies that: 1) if the high-z ETGs are indeed as dense as estimated, they cannot evolve into present-day ETGs via dry mergers; 2) present-day ETGs cannot have assembled more than ~45% of their stellar mass via dry mergers. Alternatively, dry mergers could be reconciled with the observations if there was extreme fine tuning between merger history and galaxy properties, at variance with our assumptions. Full cosmological simulations will be needed to evaluate whether this fine-tuned solution is acceptable.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Inference of the Cold Dark Matter substructure mass function at z=0.2 using strong gravitational lenses

We present the results of a search for galaxy substructures in a sample of 11 gravitational lens galaxies from the Sloan Lens ACS Survey. We find no significant detection of mass clumps, except for a luminous satellite in the system SDSS J0956+5110. We use these non-detections, in combination with a previous detection in the system SDSS J0946+1006, to derive constraints on the substructure mass function in massive early-type host galaxies with an average redshift z ~ 0.2 and an average velocity dispersion of 270 km/s. We perform a Bayesian inference on the substructure mass function, within a median region of about 32 kpc squared around the Einstein radius (~4.2 kpc). We infer a mean projected substructure mass fraction $f = 0.0076^{+0.0208}_{-0.0052}$ at the 68 percent confidence level and a substructure mass function slope $\alpha$ < 2.93 at the 95 percent confidence level for a uniform prior probability density on alpha. For a Gaussian prior based on Cold Dark Matter (CDM) simulations, we infer $f = 0 .0064^{+0.0080}_{-0.0042}$ and a slope of $\alpha$ = 1.90$^{+0.098}_{-0.098}$ at the 68 percent confidence level. Since only one substructure was detected in the full sample, we have little information on the mass function slope, which is therefore poorly constrained (i.e. the Bayes factor shows no positive preference for any of the two models).The inferred fraction is consistent with the expectations from CDM simulations and with inference from flux ratio anomalies at the 68 percent confidence level.Comment: Accepted for publication on MNRAS, some typos corrected and some important references adde

The Lenses Structure & Dynamics Survey: The internal structure and evolution of E/S0 galaxies and the determination of H_0 from time-delay systems

The Lenses Structure & Dynamics (LSD) Survey aims at studying the internal structure of luminous and dark matter - as well as their evolution - of field early-type (E/SO) galaxies to z~1. In particular, E/S0 lens galaxies are studied by combining gravitational lensing, photometric and kinematic data obtained with ground-based (VLA/Keck/VLT) and space-based telescopes (HST). Here, we report on preliminary results from the LSD Survey, in particular on (i) the constraints set on the luminous and dark-matter distributions in the inner several R_eff of E/S0 galaxies, (ii) the evolution of their stellar component and (iii) the constraints set on the value of H_0 from time-delay systems by combining lensing and kinematic data to break degeneracies in gravitational-lens models.Comment: 4 pages; Proceeding for the "Multi-Wavelength Cosmology" conference, Mykonos, Greece, June 17-20, 200