A tale of two coal regimes: An actor-oriented analysis of destabilisation and maintenance of coal regimes in Germany and Japan

Phasing out coal-fired electricity is an urgent global task, critical to efforts to mitigate climate change and air pollution. Despite the growth and increasing competitiveness of renewable energy, phase-out progress is slow, with coal-fired power even reaching an all-time global high in 2021. A key factor blocking or delaying this energy transition is the active resistance of coal regime actors with vested interests. However, there is still a lack of a systemic understanding of why some actors are more influential in shaping transition processes such as changes in policies or institutions. In this article, we present a comparative case study of the political struggle around the coal policy in Germany and Japan. We use the Endowment-Practice-Institutions (EPI) framework to analyse how actors try to destabilise or maintain the institutional arrangements underpinning the coal regimes in these countries and why some are more influential in shaping the policy outcomes. Our findings show that while actors' strategies are largely determined by the socio-political context they are embedded in, there are also certain patterns and common sequences of practices. These include commissioning a study, disseminating it through various networks and social media channels, mobilising the public through demonstrations, and engaging in advocacy with the aim of increasing the political bargaining power. Our analytical framework, which can be applied to various settings, helps to understand why certain policy outcomes occur amidst efforts to spur or stall energy transitions, and why regimes are destabilised in some case - but not in others

Top-down sustainability transitions in action: How do incumbent actors drive electric mobility diffusion in China, Japan, and California?

In explaining how socio-technical transitions occur, prevailing theories focus on bottom-up processes driven by new entrants, diverse actors and open-ended exploration in small, protected niches. Incumbent firms are frequently portrayed as hampering change, while managerial strategies using traditional public policy instruments remain understudied. Addressing this bias, we examine strategies used by networks of incumbent state and industry actors in China, Japan and California to accelerate the production and diffusion of battery-electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. We build a comprehensive framework that systematically marries mechanisms of industrial transformation described in developmental-state literature with theories of socio-technical change from transitions scholarship. We then use a vast dataset of secondary documents and interviews to examine the principal strategies employed in each country, identifying variations over two phases of technological diffusion. Findings reveal that the incumbent actor networks in each country have collectively employed multiple but similar strategies. Yet closer inspection of specific policy instruments, such as regulations and performance-based incentives, along with ambitions to phase out vehicles with internal combustion engines, reveals differences across cases. We explain these by considering different motivations for each country’s transition and influencing socio-political conditions. Our study contributes to the enrichment of future transitions research in at least two ways. Theoretically, by integrating literature on transitions and developmental states, we deepen understanding of how incumbent state and market actors can attempt to drive socio-technical change. Empirically, our analysis provides important evidence for understanding the strategies driving top-down transitions outside northern Europe, and the conditions affecting instrument choice

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages

University partnerships for co-designing and co-producing urban sustainability

Universities are playing an increasingly central role in advancing sustainability at the local, regional and national scale through cross-sector collaborations. Accompanying the launch of Future Earth, interest is mounting in the co-design and co-production of knowledge and solutions for advancing global sustainability, particularly in urban areas. Place-based university partnerships appear as particularly significant vehicles for enacting co-design and co-production in the context of urban sustainability. However, the nature and role of these partnerships are not well understood, in part due to the absence of systematic analyses across multiple cases. To fill this gap, the objectives of this paper were to conduct a large-scale international survey focusing on university partnerships for urban sustainability in industrialised Europe, Asia and North America to (1) determine defining features such as focus areas, geographical scales, mechanisms, actors and motivations, and (2) identify commonly encountered drivers, barriers and potential impacts. Results indicate that partnerships most typically target energy, buildings, governance and social systems, unfold at local or city-scales, and involve collaborations with local or regional government. Our analysis shows that potential outcomes of university initiatives to co-design and co-produce urban sustainability are not limited to knowledge and policy. They also encompass the creation of new technological prototypes, businesses and new socio-technical systems, in addition to transformations of the built and natural environment. Findings also suggest that individual partnerships are making strong social, environmental and sustainability impacts, with less evidence of economic contributions. Strategies are required to enhance project management and ensure that projects address contrasting priorities and time horizons in academia and local government. Implications for policy include findings that targeted funding programmes can play a key role in fostering partnerships. Measures are also required to challenge academic norms and incentive structures that, in some cases, hinder university efforts to engage in place-based initiatives to co-design and co-produce urban sustainability

Architectural and spatial changing of university complexes and buildings in the reformation stage of higher education in Russia

The article investigates modern home tendencies of transformation of university complexes. This transformation is based on the carcass of interactions built in the structure of innovative activity and is a prerequisite of the development of the forming university clusters. The main prerequisites of transformations in architectural and spatial environment of universities against the background of the reforms in higher education in Russia are examined. A project experiment grounding the necessity of architectural and spatial changes of university buildings and complexes is described

Innovative policy practices to advance building energy efficiency and retrofitting: Approaches, impacts and challenges in ten C40 cities

This study examines ten programmes to advance energy efficiency and retrofitting of existing, private sector buildings in C40 cities in Asia-Pacific and USA. We set out to identify differing policy approaches, together with potential impacts and implementation challenges for each. Findings unearthed six policy models – both mandatory and voluntary – with unique impacts and challenges. We demonstrate that innovation occurs without new policy inventions and largely by necessity, as new features are added and generic models are adapted to local circumstances. Our sample demonstrated experimentation with benchmarking in the USA, comprehensive regulation in Asia, and voluntary approaches in Australia. Overall, environmental impacts are particularly slow to emerge and plagued with attribution challenges. We found limited evidence of benchmarking programme effectiveness in reducing energy consumption in the short-term, but some indication of mid-term outcomes. Driven by unique local circumstances, the cap-and-trade model stood out by fostering large, sustained and attributable GHG emission reductions and retrofitting. Market and social impacts are highly significant across all programmes, highlighting needs to consider non-environmental impacts in policy evaluation. We emphasise the complementary potential of voluntary and regulatory approaches to advancing energy efficiency and climate resilience. We also underscore the potential for reporting or benchmarking programmes to later transition to models mandating performance improvements, such as cap-and-trade

サステイナビリティに向けた都市の転換のための大学の共創的パートナーシップ : 技術移転を通じた第三のミッションを超えて

学位の種別:課程博士University of Tokyo(東京大学

Implementing sustainability co-creation between universities and society: A typology-based understanding

Universities are under mounting pressure to partner with societal stakeholders and organizations to collaboratively create and implement sustainability-advancing knowledge, tools, and societal transformations. Simultaneously, an increasing number of societal organizations are reaching out to partner with universities to achieve organizational objectives and increase the effectiveness of strategies to further societal sustainability. Using a conceptual framework of "sustainability co-creation", this study empirically examines the historical and ongoing experiences of five organizations in Japan that actively partner with universities to enhance sustainability activities and strategies to transform society. We examine motivations for partnering with universities, innovative models of practice, factors hampering the co-creative potential of the university, and desired changes to overcome these. Our empirical study leads to the proposal of a typology that might assist in categorizing and understanding key attributes of differing types of sustainability co-creation. We build our typology from two perspectives: First, in terms of the primary objective of the co-creation (ranging from knowledge production to the transformation of society), and second, in terms of the approach taken (ranging from either socially or technologically-centered). We then reflect on the organizations' experiences to offer several strategies that could increase the effectiveness of the university when partnering with stakeholders in sustainability co-creation. We also highlight several factors effecting the university's capacity to move beyond knowledge production towards implementation measures to transform society with external stakeholders

Understanding the Multi-Faceted Drivers of Increasing Coal Consumption in Indonesia

To meet the Paris Agreement’s climate mitigation objectives, there is an urgent global need to reduce coal combustion. Yet coal usage, particularly in the power sector, is rising in many developing countries. Indonesia is a notable example. While government policy is widely considered as the principle driver of Indonesia’s increasing coal consumption, studies have largely overlooked the influence of socioeconomic forces. To understand these effects, we utilize a decomposition analysis to capture the individual effect of five drivers of coal consumption in Indonesia over 1965 to 2017: (1) the energy mix, (2) energy intensity of GDP, (3) population, (4) urbanization, and (5) urban incomes. Results show the energy mix has exerted the largest effect on coal consumption. In addition, by accounting for other socio-economic influences, we found that other less appreciated factors have contributed to rising coal consumption. In order of contribution these were the urban economic effect, the growing relative share of urban population, and the population increase itself in absolute terms. We thus demonstrate that the drivers of growing coal consumption are multi-faced, complex and intertwined. Our findings show that developing nations such as Indonesia share a need to decouple urban population growth and increasing per capita wealth from fossil fuel (and coal) emissions

Future sustainability scenarios for universities: moving beyond the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development

As achievements of the completed United Nations Decade (2005–2014) of Education for Sustainable Development are contemplated globally, along with potential steps forward for the future, Member States have urged that this decade continue after 2014 through “The Future We Want”; the outcome document of the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. More recently, commitments to furthering the advancement of sustainable development through education have also been re-enforced in the recently adopted post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. This study systematically analyzed the implications of sustainable development trends and future directions universities might take under a potential second decade (2015–2024). For this purpose, a model for generating “trend-based scenarios” is proposed, based upon a combination of various futures studies methods. Results suggest that the advancement of sustainability through societal collaboration and various functions such as education, research and outreach will increasingly constitute a core mission for universities. Projecting this trend out into the following decade, the authors frame possible future orientations through three unique scenarios; namely, a socially-, environmentally- and economically-oriented university. Pursuit of sustainable development through each of these would see unique and fundamental changes. These would affect the principle university mission, focus areas, emphasized disciplines, view of Education for Sustainable Development, core external partners, projects and outputs with external stakeholders, geographical focus, and main functions involved. The authors then examine how one or more of these scenarios might be actualized through various external and internal policy and incentive measures. The depiction of these three scenarios, along with potential measures to guide universities to either of these, provides scholars, university leaders and government policy makers with some conceptual and practical instruments to consider strategically how any of these futures might be realized