The Method of Randomization for Cluster-Randomized Trials: Challenges of Including Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions

Cluster-randomized clinical trials (CRT) are trials in which the unit of randomization is not a participant but a group (e.g. healthcare systems or community centers). They are suitable when the intervention applies naturally to the cluster (e.g. healthcare policy); when lack of independence among participants may occur (e.g. nursing home hygiene); or when it is most ethical to apply an intervention to all within a group (e.g. school-level immunization). Because participants in the same cluster receive the same intervention, CRT may approximate clinical practice, and may produce generalizable findings. However, when not properly designed or interpreted, CRT may induce biased results. CRT designs have features that add complexity to statistical estimation and inference. Chief among these is the cluster-level correlation in response measurements induced by the randomization. A critical consideration is the experimental unit of inference; often it is desirable to consider intervention effects at the level of the individual rather than the cluster. Finally, given that the number of clusters available may be limited, simple forms of randomization may not achieve balance between intervention and control arms at either the cluster- or participant-level. In non-clustered clinical trials, balance of key factors may be easier to achieve because the sample can be homogenous by exclusion of participants with multiple chronic conditions (MCC). CRTs, which are often pragmatic, may eschew such restrictions. Failure to account for imbalance may induce bias and reducing validity. This article focuses on the complexities of randomization in the design of CRTs, such as the inclusion of patients with MCC, and imbalances in covariate factors across clusters

Patterns, Predictors, and Outcomes of Falls Trajectories in Older Adults: The MOBILIZE Boston Study with 5 Years of Follow-Up

Background: Falls may occur as unpredictable events or in patterns indicative of potentially modifiable risks and predictive of adverse outcomes. Knowing the patterns, risks, and outcomes of falls trajectories may help clinicians plan appropriate preventive measures. We hypothesized that clinically distinct trajectories of falls progression, baseline predictors and their coincident clinical outcomes could be identified. Methods: We studied 765 community-dwelling participants in the MOBILIZE Boston Study, who were aged 70 and older and followed prospectively for falls over 5 years. Baseline demographic and clinical data were collected by questionnaire and a comprehensive clinic examination. Falls, injuries, and hospitalizations were recorded prospectively on daily calendars. Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (GBTM) was used to identify trajectories. Results: We identified 4 distinct trajectories: No Falls (30.1%), Cluster Falls (46.1%), Increasing Falls (5.8%) and Chronic Recurring Falls (18.0%). Predictors of Cluster Falls were faster gait speed (OR 1.69 (95CI, 1.50–2.56)) and fall in the past year (OR 3.52 (95CI, 2.16–6.34)). Predictors of Increasing Falls were Diabetes Mellitus (OR 4.3 (95CI, 1.4–13.3)) and Cognitive Impairment (OR 2.82 (95CI, 1.34–5.82)). Predictors of Chronic Recurring Falls were multi-morbidity (OR 2.24 (95CI, 1.60–3.16)) and fall in the past year (OR 3.82 (95CI, 2.34–6.23)). Symptoms of depression were predictive of all falls trajectories. In the Chronic Recurring Falls trajectory group the incidence rate of Hospital visits was 121 (95% CI 63–169) per 1,000 person-years; Injurious falls 172 (95% CI 111–237) per 1,000 person-years and Fractures 41 (95% CI 9–78) per 1,000 person-years. Conclusions: Falls may occur in clusters over discrete intervals in time, or as chronically increasing or recurring events that have a relatively greater risk of adverse outcomes. Patients with multiple falls, multimorbidity, and depressive symptoms should be targeted for preventive measures

Association Between Frailty and Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults: The Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort

Background: Frailty is associated bidirectionally with cardiovascular disease. However, the relations between frailty and atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been fully elucidated. Methods and Results: Using the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) Offspring cohort, we sought to examine both the association between frailty (2005-2008) and incident AF through 2016 and the association between prevalent AF and frailty status (2011-2014). Frailty was defined using the Fried phenotype. Models adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for competing risk of death, assessed the association between prevalent frailty and incident AF. Logistic regression models assessed the association between prevalent AF and new-onset frailty. For the incident AF analysis, we included 2053 participants (56% women; mean age, 69.7+/-6.9 years). By Fried criteria, 1018 (50%) were robust, 903 (44%) were prefrail, and 132 (6%) were frail. In total, 306 incident cases of AF occurred during an average 9.2 (SD, 3.1) follow-up years. After adjustment, there was no statistically significant association between prevalent frailty status and incident AF (prefrail versus robust: hazard ratio [HR], 1.22 [95% CI, 0.95-1.55]; frail versus robust: HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.57-1.47]). At follow-up, there were 111 new cases of frailty. After adjustment, there was no statistically significant association between prevalent AF and new-onset frailty (odds ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.17-1.36]). Conclusions: Although a bidirectional association between frailty and cardiovascular disease has been suggested, we did not find evidence of an association between frailty and AF. Our findings may be limited by sample size and should be further explored in other populations

Self-Reported Head Trauma Predicts Poor Dual Task Gait in Retired National Football League Players

Symptomatic head trauma associated with American-style football (ASF) has been linked to brain pathology, along with physical and mental distress in later life. However, the longer-term effects of such trauma on objective metrics of cognitive-motor function remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that ASF-related symptomatic head trauma would predict worse gait performance, particularly during dual task conditions (ie, walking while performing an additional cognitive task), in later life. Sixty-six retired professional ASF players aged 29 to 75 years completed a health and wellness questionnaire. They also completed a validated smartphone-based assessment in their own homes, during which gait was monitored while they walked normally and while they performed a verbalized serial-subtraction cognitive task. Participants who reported more symptomatic head trauma, defined as the total number of impacts to the head or neck followed by concussion-related symptoms, exhibited greater dual task cost (ie, percentage increase) to stride time variability (ie, the coefficient of variation of mean stride time). Those who reported ≥1 hit followed by loss of consciousness, compared to those who did not, also exhibited greater dual task costs to this metric. Relationships between reported trauma and dual task costs were independent of age, body mass index, National Football League career duration, and history of musculoskeletal surgery. Symptomatic head trauma was not correlated with average stride times in either walking condition. Remote, smartphone-based assessments of dual task walking may be utilized to capture meaningful data sensitive to the long-term impact of symptomatic head trauma in former professional ASF players and other contact sport athletes. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:75-8

Late Status of Fontan Patients With Persistent Surgical Fenestration

ObjectivesThis study was undertaken to determine the effects of creating a systemic-to-pulmonary venous atrial-level communication (fenestration) at the time of the Fontan procedure on late outcomes.BackgroundFenestrations are frequently performed during Fontan procedures, but late consequences are not well described.MethodsPatient characteristics were compared between those with and without surgical fenestration among 536 subjects (mean age 11.9 years) enrolled in the Pediatric Heart Network Fontan Cross-Sectional Study. The status of the fenestration and the association of a currently patent fenestration with health status and measures of ventricular performance were investigated.ResultsFenestration was performed in 361 patients (67%), and frequency differed by year and center (p < 0.001 for each). After adjustment for center, age at Fontan, year of Fontan, and prior superior cavopulmonary surgery, the fenestrated group had shorter length of Fontan hospital stay. At the time of cross-sectional testing 8 ± 3 years after Fontan, the fenestration remained open in 19% of subjects. Among those with confirmed fenestration closure, 59% were by catheter intervention and 1% by surgical intervention, and 40% had apparent spontaneous closure. Compared with those without evidence of a fenestration, subjects with a current fenestration were taking more medications (p = 0.02) and had lower resting oxygen saturation (median 89% vs. 95%, p < 0.001). Functional health status, exercise performance, echocardiographic variables, prevalence of post-Fontan stroke or thrombosis, and growth did not differ by current fenestration status.ConclusionsSurgical fenestration is associated with well-demonstrated early post-operative benefits. This cross-sectional study found few associations between a persistent fenestration and deleterious later outcomes

Delirium Severity Post-Surgery and its Relationship with Long-Term Cognitive Decline in a Cohort of Patients without Dementia

Background: Delirium has been associated with more rapid cognitive decline. However, it is unknown whether increased delirium severity is associated with a higher rate of long-term cognitive decline. Objective: To evaluate delirium severity and the presence and rate of cognitive decline over 36 months following surgery. Methods: We examined patients from the Successful Aging after Elective Surgery Study, who were age ≥70 years undergoing major elective surgery (N=560). Delirium severity was determined by the peak Confusion Assessment Method-Severity (CAM-S) score for each patient’s hospitalization and grouped based on the sample distribution: scores of 0-2, 3-7, and 8-19. A neuropsychological composite, General Cognitive Performance (GCP), and proxy-reported Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Decline (IQCODE) were used to examine cognitive outcomes following surgery at 0, 1, 2 months, and every 6 months for up to 3 years. Results: No significant cognitive decline was observed for patients with peak CAM-S scores 0-2 (-0.17 GCP units/year, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.35, 0.01). GCP scores decreased significantly in the group with peak CAM-S scores 3-7 (-0.30 GCP units/year, 95% CI-0.51, -0.09), and decreased almost three times faster in the highest delirium severity group (peak CAM-S scores 8-19; -0.82 GCP units/year, 95% CI -1.28, -0.37). A similar association was found for delirium severity and the proportion of patients who developed IQCODE impairment over time. Conclusion: Patients with the highest delirium severity experienced the greatest rate of cognitive decline, which exceeds the rate previously observed for patients with dementia, on serial neuropsychological testing administered over 3 years, with a dose-response relationship between delirium severity and long-term cognitive decline

Clinical Meaningfulness of the Changes in Muscle Performance and Physical Function Associated With Testosterone Administration in Older Men With Mobility Limitation

Context. Testosterone in Older Men with Mobility Limitations Trial determined the effects of testosterone on muscle performance and physical function in older men with mobility limitation. Trial's Data and Safety Monitoring Board recommended enrollment cessation due to increased frequency of adverse events in testosterone arm. The changes in muscle performance and physical function were evaluated in relation to participant's perception of change. Methods. Men aged 65 years and older, with mobility limitation, total testosterone 100-350 ng/dL, or free testosterone less than 50 pg/mL, were randomized to placebo or 10 g testosterone gel daily for 6 months. Primary outcome was leg-press strength. Secondary outcomes included chest-press strength, stair-climb, 40-m walk, muscle mass, physical activity, self-reported function, and fatigue. Proportions of participants exceeding minimally important difference in study arms were compared. Results. Of 209 randomized participants, 165 had follow-up efficacy measures. Mean (SD) age was 74 (5.4) years and short physical performance battery score 7.7 (1.4). Testosterone arm exhibited greater improvements in leg-press strength, chest-press strength and power, and loaded stair-climb than placebo. Compared with placebo, significantly greater proportion of men receiving testosterone improved their leg-press and chest-press strengths (43% vs 18%, p = .01) and stair-climbing power (28% vs 10%, p = .03) more than minimally important difference. Increases in leg-press strength and stair-climbing power were associated with changes in testosterone levels and muscle mass. Physical activity, walking speed, self-reported function, and fatigue did not change. Conclusions. Testosterone administration in older men with mobility limitation was associated with patient-important improvements in muscle strength and stair-climbing power. Improvements in muscle strength and only some physical function measures should be weighed against the risk of adverse events in this populatio

Heritability of Thoracic Spine Curvature and Genetic Correlations With Other Spine Traits: The Framingham Study

Hyperkyphosis is a common spinal disorder in older adults, characterized by excessive forward curvature of the thoracic spine and adverse health outcomes. The etiology of hyperkyphosis has not been firmly established, but may be related to changes that occur with aging in the vertebrae, discs, joints, and muscles, which function as a unit to support the spine. Determining the contribution of genetics to thoracic spine curvature and the degree of genetic sharing among co-occurring measures of spine health may provide insight into the etiology of hyperkyphosis. The purpose of our study was to estimate heritability of thoracic spine curvature using T4–T12 kyphosis (Cobb) angle and genetic correlations between thoracic spine curvature and vertebral fracture, intervertebral disc height narrowing, facet joint osteoarthritis (OA), lumbar spine volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), and paraspinal muscle area and density, which were all assessed from computed tomography (CT) images. Participants included 2063 women and men in the second and third generation offspring of the original cohort of the Framingham Study. Heritability of kyphosis angle, adjusted for age, sex, and weight, was 54% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43% to 64%). We found moderate genetic correlations between kyphosis angle and paraspinal muscle area (math formulaG, –0.46; 95% CI, –0.67 to –0.26), vertebral fracture (math formulaG, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.61), vBMD (math formulaG, –0.23; 95% CI, –0.41 to –0.04), and paraspinal muscle density (math formulaG, –0.22; 95% CI, –0.48 to 0.03). Genetic correlations between kyphosis angle and disc height narrowing (math formulaG, 0.17; 95% CI, –0.05 to 0.38) and facet joint OA (math formulaG, 0.05; 95% CI, –0.15 to 0.24) were low. Thoracic spine curvature may be heritable and share genetic factors with other age-related spine traits including trunk muscle size, vertebral fracture, and bone mineral density

Genetic Determinants of Circulating Estrogen Levels and Evidence of a Causal Effect of Estradiol on Bone Density in Men.

CONTEXT: Serum estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1) levels exhibit substantial heritability. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the genetic regulation of serum E2 and E1 in men. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Genome-wide association study in 11,097 men of European origin from nine epidemiological cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Genetic determinants of serum E2 and E1 levels. RESULTS: Variants in/near CYP19A1 demonstrated the strongest evidence for association with E2, resolving to three independent signals. Two additional independent signals were found on the X chromosome; FAMily with sequence similarity 9, member B (FAM9B), rs5934505 (P = 3.4 × 10-8) and Xq27.3, rs5951794 (P = 3.1 × 10-10). E1 signals were found in CYP19A1 (rs2899472, P = 5.5 × 10-23), in Tripartite motif containing 4 (TRIM4; rs17277546, P = 5.8 × 10-14), and CYP11B1/B2 (rs10093796, P = 1.2 × 10-8). E2 signals in CYP19A1 and FAM9B were associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Mendelian randomization analysis suggested a causal effect of serum E2 on BMD in men. A 1 pg/mL genetically increased E2 was associated with a 0.048 standard deviation increase in lumbar spine BMD (P = 2.8 × 10-12). In men and women combined, CYP19A1 alleles associated with higher E2 levels were associated with lower degrees of insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that CYP19A1 is an important genetic regulator of E2 and E1 levels and strengthen the causal importance of E2 for bone health in men. We also report two independent loci on the X-chromosome for E2, and one locus each in TRIM4 and CYP11B1/B2, for E1

Symptomatic benefits of testosterone treatment in patient subgroups : a systematic review, individual participant data meta-analysis, and aggregate data meta-analysis

Acknowledgments This work was supported by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR)'s Health Technology Assessment Programme (project number 17/68/01). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. The Health Services Research Unit at the University of Aberdeen is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The Section of Endocrinology and Investigative Medicine at Imperial College London is funded by grants from the Medical Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, NIHR, an Integrative Mammalian Biology Capacity Building Award, and an FP7-HEALTH-2009-241592 EuroCHIP grant, and is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre Funding Scheme. WSD is funded by an NIHR Research Professorship. CNJ is funded by an NIHR Post-Doctoral Fellowship. ShB receives NIH research grant funding. The authors are grateful to the clinical and methodological experts and patient partners who contributed to the advisory group for this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD