A sárgaláz szúnyog populációk múltbeli, közelmúltbeli és jövőbeli éghajlati stabilitásának vizsgálata Európában = Investigation of the past, the recent and future climate stability of yellow fever mosquito populations in Europe

A sárgaláz szúnyog az egyik legjelentősebb ízeltlábú vektor. A 19. század és a 20. század fordulóján a Földközi-tenger partvidékén behurcolt formában elterjedt volt. Jelenleg Európában csak a Fekete-tenger mellékén lelhető fel. Jelen tanulmány a faj múltbeli, referenciaidőszakot illető és a várható jövőbeli elterjedésének modellezése volt a kontinensen. A múltra és a közelmúltra vonatkozó modellezett éghajlati alkalmasság-értékek összevetése alapján állítható, hogy a faj jelenlétének nincsen jelenleg klimatikus korlátja a Földközi-tenger partvidékén. A jövőben a faj számára Európa déli részének éghajlati körülményei jelentősen javulni fognak és akár a Kárpát-medence déli területeinek klímája is alkalmassá válhat a faj fennmaradása számára. = The yellow fever mosquito is one of the most significant arthropod vectors. This mosquito was widespread on the Mediterranean shores at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. It is currently found in Europe only on the Black Sea. The present study was performed to model the past, the reference period, and the expected future distribution of the species on the continent. A comparison of modelled climatic suitability values for the past and recent periods show that there is no climatic limit to the presence of the species on the Mediterranean coast. In the future, the climatic conditions of the Sothern regions of Europe will improve significantly for the Yellow fever mosquito, and even the climate in the southern parts of the Carpathian Basin may become suitable for the species

Klímaváltozás és az európai lepkeszúnyogok. Az areamodellezés módszertani kérdései

The future northward expansion of the arthropod vectors of leishmaniasis caused by climate change seems to be essential veterinary and medical problem. Our aim was to build and evaluate a Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to assess the potential effects of climate change on five European sandfly species. The studied species – Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., P. neglectus Tonn., P. papatasi Scop., P. perfiliewi Parrot, P. perniciosus Newst., P. sergenti Parrot, P. similis Perfiliev, P. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie – are important vectors of the parasite Leishmania infantum or other Leishmania species. The projections were based on REMO regional climate model with European domain. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Three types of climatic parameters were used for every month (averaged in the 30-years periods). The model was supported by VBORNET digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method). Iterative model evaluation was done by summarizing two types of model errors based on an aggregated distribution. The results show that the best model results can be achieved by leaving 5-5 percentiles from the two extrema of the mean temperature, 2-2 percentiles from the two extrema of the minimum temperature, 0 percentile from the minimum of and 8 percentiles from the maximum of the precipitation

Potential urban distribution of Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi and Phlebotomus neglectus Tonn. (Diptera: Psychodidae) in 2021–50 in Budapest, Hungary

Background & Objective: The most northern populations of two sand fly species (Phlebotomus mascittii and Phlebotomus neclectus) in the Carpathian Basin are known from Central Hungary. The most important limiting factor of the distribution of Phlebotomus species in the region is the annual minimum temperature which may be positively affected by the urban heat island and the climate change in the future. Method: Based on the latest case reports of the species, Climate Envelope Model was done for the period 1961-1990 and 2025-2050 to project the potential urban distribution of the species. The climatic data were obtained from RegCM regional climate model and MODIS satellite images. Results: The recent occurrence of the species in Central Hungary indicates that Phlebotomus species can overwinter in non-heated shelters in the built environment. Interpretation & Conclusion: Jointly heat island and future climate change seem to be able to provide suitable environment for the studied species in urban areas in a great extent