Bede-Fazekas, Ákos

Trájer, Attila János

Corvinus Research Archive

   - 2 -  Talks Waning immunity and state-dependent delays Maria Vittoria Barbarossa and Gergely Röst University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary When the body gets infected by a virus (e.g., measles, rubella, ...), the immune system develops a certain resistance against it. As a matter of fact disease-induced immunity tends to wane and, long time after recovery, an individual might become again susceptible to the virus. Exposure to the pathogen boosts the immune system, thus prolonging the time in which the individual is immune. In this work we focus on the feedback mechanism which makes possible for certain individuals to have lifelong immunity, being regularly exposed to the infection. The mathematical model is based on a system of differential equations with state-dependent delay. We shall consider the effects of waning immunity and immune system boosting on epidemics outbreaks.  Modeling the climate envelope of some European vector species Ákos Bede-Fazekas and Attila Trájer Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, Hungary Climate Envelope Modeling (CEM) – also known as correlative modeling – is a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) method assuming that the climatic envelope of the studied species, calculated in the reference period from the species distribution, is static. This assumption enables the extrapolation in temporal terms. By statistical methods or Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms, the model can find the correspondence between the climatic environment and the species distribution and draw the potential distribution in the reference period or in the future. A simple Climate Envelope Model was run to examine whether the climate of Europe in the 21st century will be suitable for some important Diptera vectors. Several Phlebotomus species (sand flies) are able to transmit the Leishmania infantum protozoa, causative agent of the zoonosis called leishmaniasis. Aedes albopictus (tiger mosquito) is one vector of the Dirofilaria immitis nematode (roundworm), agent of the zoonosis called dirofilariasis. The distribution map of these species were obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and REMO regional climate model (RCM) was used for acquiring the climatic data of the reference and prediction periods. The model results showed remarkable future potential expansion. The future (and in some case the present) climate of Southern Hungary seems to be suitable for Phlebotomus ariasi, Ph. neglectus, Ph. perfiliewi, Ph. perniciosus, Ph. tobbi, and Aedes albopictus. The model proved the first lethal canine dirofilariasis case in Southern Hungary (Pécs, April 2013). 

Modeling the climate envelope of some European vector species

  
 
- 2 - 
 
Talks 
Waning immunity and state-dependent delays 
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa and Gergely Röst 
University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary 
When the body gets infected by a virus (e.g., measles, rubella, ...), the immune system develops a 
certain resistance against it. As a matter of fact disease-induced immunity tends to wane and, long 
time after recovery, an individual might become again susceptible to the virus. Exposure to the 
pathogen boosts the immune system, thus prolonging the time in which the individual is immune. 
In this work we focus on the feedback mechanism which makes possible for certain individuals to 
have lifelong immunity, being regularly exposed to the infection. The mathematical model is based 
on a system of differential equations with state-dependent delay. We shall consider the effects of 
waning immunity and immune system boosting on epidemics outbreaks.  
Modeling the climate envelope of some European vector species 
Ákos Bede-Fazekas and Attila Trájer 
Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, Hungary 
Climate Envelope Modeling (CEM) – also known as correlative modeling – is a Species Distribution 
Modeling (SDM) method assuming that the climatic envelope of the studied species, calculated in 
the reference period from the species distribution, is static. This assumption enables the 
extrapolation in temporal terms. By statistical methods or Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms, the 
model can find the correspondence between the climatic environment and the species 
distribution and draw the potential distribution in the reference period or in the future. A simple 
Climate Envelope Model was run to examine whether the climate of Europe in the 21st century will 
be suitable for some important Diptera vectors. Several Phlebotomus species (sand flies) are able 
to transmit the Leishmania infantum protozoa, causative agent of the zoonosis called 
leishmaniasis. Aedes albopictus (tiger mosquito) is one vector of the Dirofilaria immitis nematode 
(roundworm), agent of the zoonosis called dirofilariasis. The distribution map of these species 
were obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and REMO 
regional climate model (RCM) was used for acquiring the climatic data of the reference and 
prediction periods. The model results showed remarkable future potential expansion. The future 
(and in some case the present) climate of Southern Hungary seems to be suitable for Phlebotomus 
ariasi, Ph. neglectus, Ph. perfiliewi, Ph. perniciosus, Ph. tobbi, and Aedes albopictus. The model 
proved the first lethal canine dirofilariasis case in Southern Hungary (Pécs, April 2013). 


http://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/1680/1/BFA_TA_Szeged_abs_201311.pdf

Modeling the climate envelope of some European vector species

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