54 research outputs found

    Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators

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    This study predicts numerical demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points in the growth rate using the single input leading indicator model and assesses its forecasting performance with the ARIMA model and the no-change model. To assess the forecasting performance from the March quarter of 2004 to the December quarter of 2006, models are fitted to the growth rates of Hong Kong inbound tourism demand from selected tourism markets (Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA). Composite leading indicators for the single input leading indicator model are constructed from selected national leading and lagged indicators. To avoid false signals in turning points, a method is specified to identify the correct turning points in tourism demand growth rates. The prediction performance of these models is then examined, based on the mean absolute percentage error, directional change error and turning point error. A statistical procedure is considered to determine whether the actual and predicted directional changes and turning points are independent or associated

    Sexual risk taking in a community sample of international backpackers visiting Brisbane, Australia

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    We sought to examine correlations between international backpackers' alcohol consumption and sexual behaviors and determine the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoea in this population. A cross-sectional study design consisting of a convenience sample (N = 168) of non-treatment-seeking international backpackers visiting Brisbane, Australia was recruited. Participants were asked to self-complete a questionnaire on sexual behavior and to undertake a urine-based polymerase chain reaction test for C trachomatis and N gonorrhoea. Since arriving in Australia, 73.2% reported having had sex, with a median number of 2 different sex partners (range = 0-21). Most participants had consumed alcohol (53.7%) and used condoms (46.3%) the last time they had sex. In our sample, there was a 4.3% prevalence of C trachomatis and a 0% prevalence of N gonorrhoea. This study identified a variable pattern of risk among backpackers, with those spending longer periods in the country more likely to have sex with Australians

    Comparison of Destination Competitiveness Ranking in the European Union Using a Non-Parametric Approach

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    International audienceThis paper seeks to improve accuracy when presenting the tourism performance of European countries and, in particular, the position of destination management organizations, which play a central role in the tourism development of their countries. The paper measures the performance of European countries and endeavours to explain the dispersion of the efficiency ranking scores in the European Union (EU). Three types of methodology are applied to establish the tourism performance of the destinations. The study covers 27 large and small countries in the EU, but excludes Malta. In addition, two representative indicators of output are used: destination attractiveness and annual data on bed-nights and nights spent. Therefore, the paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA), super-efficiency DEA and the non-radial Nerlove-Luenberger super-efficiency DEA model to narrow down the partition between efficiency and inefficiency scores in large and small countries in terms of development
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