Constraints on the Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Flux from Gamma-Ray Bursts from a Prototype Station of the Askaryan Radio Array

We report on a search for ultra-high-energy (UHE) neutrinos from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the data set collected by the Testbed station of the Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) in 2011 and 2012. From 57 selected GRBs, we observed no events that survive our cuts, which is consistent with 0.12 expected background events. Using NeuCosmA as a numerical GRB reference emission model, we estimate upper limits on the prompt UHE GRB neutrino fluence and quasi-diffuse flux from $10^{7}$ to $10^{10}$ GeV. This is the first limit on the prompt UHE GRB neutrino quasi-diffuse flux above $10^{7}$ GeV.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, Published in Astroparticle Physics Journa

First Constraints on the Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Flux from a Prototype Station of the Askaryan Radio Array

The Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) is an ultra-high energy ($>10^{17}$ eV) cosmic neutrino detector in phased construction near the South Pole. ARA searches for radio Cherenkov emission from particle cascades induced by neutrino interactions in the ice using radio frequency antennas ($\sim150-800$ MHz) deployed at a design depth of 200 m in the Antarctic ice. A prototype ARA Testbed station was deployed at $\sim30$ m depth in the 2010-2011 season and the first three full ARA stations were deployed in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons. We present the first neutrino search with ARA using data taken in 2011 and 2012 with the ARA Testbed and the resulting constraints on the neutrino flux from $10^{17}-10^{21}$ eV.Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures. Since first revision, added section on systematic uncertainties, updated limits and uncertainty band with improvements to simulation, added appendix describing ray tracing algorithm. Final revision includes a section on cosmic ray backgrounds. Published in Astropart. Phys.

Performance of two Askaryan Radio Array stations and first results in the search for ultra-high energy neutrinos

Ultra-high energy neutrinos are interesting messenger particles since, if detected, they can transmit exclusive information about ultra-high energy processes in the Universe. These particles, with energies above $10^{16}\mathrm{eV}$, interact very rarely. Therefore, detectors that instrument several gigatons of matter are needed to discover them. The ARA detector is currently being constructed at South Pole. It is designed to use the Askaryan effect, the emission of radio waves from neutrino-induced cascades in the South Pole ice, to detect neutrino interactions at very high energies. With antennas distributed among 37 widely-separated stations in the ice, such interactions can be observed in a volume of several hundred cubic kilometers. Currently 3 deep ARA stations are deployed in the ice of which two have been taking data since the beginning of the year 2013. In this publication, the ARA detector "as-built" and calibrations are described. Furthermore, the data reduction methods used to distinguish the rare radio signals from overwhelming backgrounds of thermal and anthropogenic origin are presented. Using data from only two stations over a short exposure time of 10 months, a neutrino flux limit of $3 \cdot 10^{-6} \mathrm{GeV} / (\mathrm{cm^2 \ s \ sr})$ is calculated for a particle energy of 10^{18}eV, which offers promise for the full ARA detector.Comment: 21 pages, 34 figures, 1 table, includes supplementary materia

The Minimum Detectable Difference (MDD) Concept for Establishing Trust in Nonsignificant Results: A Critical Review

Current regulatory guidelines for pesticide risk assessment recommend that nonsignificant results should be complemented by the minimum detectable difference (MDD), a statistical indicator that is used to decide whether the experiment could have detected biologically relevant effects. We review the statistical theory of the MDD and perform simulations to understand its properties and error rates. Most importantly, we compare the skill of the MDD in distinguishing between true and false negatives (i.e., type II errors) with 2 alternatives: the minimum detectable effect (MDE), an indicator based on a post hoc power analysis common in medical studies; and confidence intervals (CIs). Our results demonstrate that MDD and MDE only differ in that the power of the MDD depends on the sample size. Moreover, although both MDD and MDE have some skill in distinguishing between false negatives and true absence of an effect, they do not perform as well as using CI upper bounds to establish trust in a nonsignificant result. The reason is that, unlike the CI, neither MDD nor MDE consider the estimated effect size in their calculation. We also show that MDD and MDE are no better than CIs in identifying larger effects among the false negatives. We conclude that, although MDDs are useful, CIs are preferable for deciding whether to treat a nonsignificant test result as a true negative, or for determining an upper bound for an unknown true effect.Environ Toxicol Chem2020;00:1-15. (c) 2020 The Authors.Environmental Toxicology and Chemistrypublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC