MANAGING THE INCONCEIVABLE: PARTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS OF IMPACTS AND RESPONSES TO EXTREME CLIMATE CHANGE

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 meter sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.sea level rise, West Antarctic ice sheet, climate change

Biochemical composition of red, green and brown seaweeds on the Swedish west coast

Seaweed biomass has the potential to become an important raw material for bio-based production. The aim of this study was to screen the overall composition of several seaweed species on the Swedish west coast, including some scarcely studied species, to provide fundamentals for evaluation of biorefining potential and to benchmark with already potentially industrially relevant species and commercially important land-based biomasses. Twenty-two common seaweed species (green, red, brown) were collected and the carbohydrate, ash, protein, water and metal contents were measured. Carbohydrate content varied between 237 and 557\ua0g\ua0kg−1 dry weight (dw), making it the largest constituent, on a dry weight basis, of most species in the study. Ash, which is considered unwanted in biorefining, ranged between 118 and 419\ua0g\ua0kg−1 dw and was the largest constituent in several seaweeds, which were therefore considered unsuitable for biorefining. Protein content was most abundant in the red seaweeds but was generally low in all species (59–201\ua0g\ua0kg−1 dw). High contents of several unwanted metals for processing or human consumption were found (e.g. aluminium, arsenic, copper, chromium and nickel), which need to be considered when utilizing seaweeds for certain applications. Potential targets for further biorefinery development mostly include species already known for their potential (Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata and Chondrus crispus) while some, such as Halidrys siliquosa and Dilsea carnosa, have not been previously noted. However, more detailed studies are required to explore biorefinery processes for these seaweeds, as well as how to potentially cultivate them

Distinct higher-order alpha-synuclein oligomers induce intracellular aggretation

Misfolding and aggregation of alpha-synuclein (α-syn) into Lewy bodies (LB) is associated with a range of neurological disorders, including Parkinson's disease (PD). The cell to cell transmission of α-syn pathology has been linked to soluble amyloid oligomer populations that preceded LB formation. Oligomers produced in vitro under certain conditions have been demonstrated to induce intracellular aggregation in cell culture models. Here we characterize, by electrospray ionisation - ion mobility spectrometry - mass spectrometry (ESI-IMS-MS), a specific population of α-syn oligomers. These mass spectrometry compatible oligomers were compared with oligomers with known seeding and pore forming capabilities and were shown to have the ability to induce intracellular aggregation. Each oligomer type was shown to have distinct epitope profiles that correlated with their toxic gain of function. Structurally the mass spectrometry compatible oligomers populated a range of species from dimers through to hexamers. Lower order oligomers were structurally diverse and consistent with unstructured assemblies. Higher order oligomers were shown to be compact with ring-like structures. The observation of this compact state may explain how this natively disordered protein is able to transfer pathology from cell to cell and avoid degradation by cellular proteases

Closed life-cycle aquaculture of sea lettuce (Ulva fenestrata): performance and biochemical profile differ in early developmental stages

Sea lettuce (Ulva) aquaculture has increased the last decade due to high productivity, wide environmental tolerance, and interesting functional and nutritional properties of the crop. Research focus has mainly been on adult biomass production, but knowledge of performance and biochemical content of early developmental stages – which are the basis to any large-scale production - is still limited. The life-history of Ulva alternates between a diploid sporophytic life-stage and a haplontic gametophytic life-stage. Whereas the sporophyte give raise to recombinant gametophytes through zoids, gametophytes can give raise to parthenogenetically developing, clonal gametes in absence of a mating partner. This study shows that recombinant gametophytes have a faster ontogenetic development, higher growth rate, as well as higher protein, fatty acid, and pigment contents compared to clonal gametophytes of the crop Ulva fenestrata. Nutrient addition is required for a normal development, but temperature and swarmer density have relatively small effects on the hatchery success, relative growth rate and biochemical profile of the juvenile biomass. Our study reveals that the selection of the life-history-phase in novel sea lettuce crop strains could largely contribute to the emerging seaweed aquaculture sector

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

A guideline-based computerised decision support system (CDSS) to influence general practitioners management of chronic heart failure

Objectives To explore the influence of a guidelinebased computerised decision support system (CDSS) on general practitioners' (GPs') management of patient cases of chronic heart failure in a pragmatic clinical situation. We assessed changes in the GPs' confidence in the diagnosis, their considerations about investigations and medications and the support they perceived from using the CDSS. Study design Five GPs assessed the medical records of 48 of their own authentic patient cases using a guideline-based CDSS accessible on the internet for the diagnosis and treatment of chronic heart failure, and completed a questionnaire for each case. Outcome measures Number of cases where the GP reported a change in confidence in the diagnosis, where the GP considered further investigations or changes in medication and the perceived support marked on a visual analogue scale. Results The GPs' confidence in the diagnosis changed in 25% of the cases, with equal numbers of increases and decreases in confidence. The GPs considered further investigations in 31% of the cases and medication changes in 19%. Fourteen of the 31 considered investigations and four of the ten considered changes in medications which were in agreement with the CDSS's suggestions. The GPs tended to consider further investigations more often in cases when the CDSS found the diagnosis uncertain. There was a wide range in the values for perceived support, but it could be described as substantial in 35% of the cases. Conclusion Using a guideline-based CDSS for the GPs' own patient cases had an impact on the GPs' confidence in the diagnosis of chronic heart failure and their considerations about investigations and medications: they also perceived substantial support in every third case. Applying a CDSS developed using evidence-based guidelines for chronic heart failure in primary care could have a significant influence on GPs' disease management