Decentralization, economic development, and growth in Turkish provinces

There have been important developments in the decentralization of the government structure in Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic development and growth in Turkish provinces. Although there is a rich literature on the economic effects of government decentralization from both developed and developing countries, these effects have not been examined widely in the context of Turkish local governments. The authors first describe changes since the early 1980s and recent reform efforts. They then provide an empirical analysis of the effects of decentralization in Turkish provinces using cross-sectional and panel data approaches. The panel dataset consists of 67 provinces from 1976 to 2001. The analysis examines whether variations in local decentralization across these provinces and across time have had a significant impact on economic development and growth in those provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic effect of decentralization through a number of municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show any significant impact from the creation of new provinces by separation from the existing ones.Municipal Financial Management,Economic Theory&Research,Regional Governance,Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Local Finance Management,Public Sector Management and Reform

An Examination of the Relation between State Fiscal Health and Amnesty Enactment

Assuming a normal distribution of hazards, Dubin, Graetz, and Wilde (1992) analyze state tax amnesties in the 1980s and conclude that states run amnesties in response to revenue yield motive. Given the increased frequency with which states enacted amnesties during and after the 2001 recession, we investigate if there is a possible shift from revenue yield motive to fiscal stress motive. We find that the normal distribution of hazards assumption along with the multicollinearity problem led prior research to an erroneous conclusion, and that fiscal stress is indeed the main determinant of initial and repeated tax amnesties enacted by states between 1982 and 2005.Tax Amnesty; Fiscal Pressure; Duration Analysis

Centralization, Decentralization, and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper examines broadly the intergovernmental structure in the Middle East and North Africa region, which has one of the most centralized government structures in the world. The authors address the reasons behind this centralized structure by looking first at the history behind the tax systems of the region. They review the Ottoman taxation system, which has been predominantly influential as a model, and discuss its impact on current government structure. They also discuss the current intergovernmental structure by examining the type and degree of decentralization in five countries representative of the region: Egypt, Iran, West Bank/Gaza, Tunisia, and Yemen. Cross-country regression analysis using panel data for a broader set of countries leads to better understanding of the factors behind heavy centralization in the region. The findings show that external conflicts constitute a major roadblock to decentralization in the region.Fiscal decentralization; intergovernmental relations; Middle East and North Africa

Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks

This paper examines the transition effects of population aging in more developed regions that is also expected to occur in developing regions in the near future. We address these effects by exploring the influences of internationally mobile capital and a politically responsive fiscal policy in a two-country overlapping generations model. Our results show that the combination of capital mobility and endogenous fiscal policy play an important role in how economies respond to population aging. Capital mobility has consumption smoothing effects but endogenous fiscal policy is the key factor in creating asymmetries between countries. The interaction of the two may even account for a change in the pattern, in addition to a change in the size, of the effects of population aging on economic growth and welfare when compared to closed economy and exogenous fiscal policy models. We find that even when the demographic shock in the two regions is symmetric, reaction to this shock depends on the timing of the shock. Overall, the late, developing country demographic shock produces relatively more favorable economic outcomes worldwide. Finally, our analysis of the timing of developing country aging indicates that an early aging scenario is more beneficial for both regions

The Income Elasticity of Casino Revenues: Short-Run and Long-Run Estimates

In this paper we examine how casino gambling revenues differ from other major tax revenues in growth and variability. We estimate the long-run and short-run income elasticities using state-level casino revenue and state, regional and national income. Our empirical analysis includes eleven states that have significant casino gambling. To estimate income elasticities, we run separate time-series regressions for each of these states, controlling for supply-side industry effects. Our findings show that Nevada’s casino revenue base growth is more sensitive to national than state income, while such growth is more tied to state and regional income in riverboat states. Casino revenue base growth is generally faster than taxable sales, but slower than taxable income. Short-run (immediate) elasticity is, on average, lower than estimates for sales and income taxes, with an equal or more rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium. These estimates also reveal greater variability when regional or national income changes are taken into consideration. This suggests that states that depend heavily on out-of-state visitors in their gambling operations may be more susceptible to changes in regional or national economic activity.Trade openness; Gambling revenues; Income elasticity

Impact of Trade on Productivity of Skilled and Unskilled Intensive Industries: A Cross-Country Investigation

This paper examines the effect of trade openness on the productivity of skilled labor intensive and unskilled labor intensive industries in the group of 20 OECD countries. Using panel data and fixed effects approach, we find that skilled workers’ relative gains in productivity exceed those of their unskilled counterpart. Given this differential impact of trade openness on the relative productivity of the skilled and unskilled intensive industries, our findings lend support to the conclusions of past studies that skilled labor is likely to be more pro trade than unskilled labor.Trade openness; Skilled intensive industries; Unskilled intensive industries; Productivity

Population Aging, Elderly Migration and Education Spending: Intergenerational Conflict Revisited

Elderly have been increasingly targeted as a group to enhance economic development and the tax base in communities. A major factor in their rise in importance is the rapid increase in the number of retired elderly through aging of the U.S. population. While recent literature on elderly migration tends to focus on how elderly migration patterns are influenced by state fiscal variables, the reverse effect from elderly population on fiscal variables is very plausible as shown to be the case for estate, inheritance, and gift taxes by Conway and Rork (2006). In this paper, we reexamine the intergenerational conflict in education financing raised by Poterba (1997) using U.S. state and county level data that allows to analyze how preferences for education might vary across different elderly age groups, which has not been explored before. Moreover, this paper uses a variety of advanced econometric techniques to estimate the impact of elderly population and elderly migration on education spending. Our state and county regression results broadly support the presence of intergenerational conflict in education financing. We also find dramatic age heterogeneity in preferences for education spending among elderly migrants.Population aging, elderly migration, education spending, intergenerational conflict

Cross-Border Shopping and the Sales Tax: A Reexamination of Food Purchases in West Virginia

In this paper we present new evidence of cross-border shopping in response to sales taxation. While several instructive studies provide estimates of the cross-border shopping effect, we utilize a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of a large discrete change in sales tax policy. Using county level data on food income and sales tax data for West Virginia over the 1982-2000 period we estimate that for every one-percentage point increase in the county relative price ratio due to sales tax change, the per capita food income decreases by about 0.7 percent. Our estimates indicate that food sales fell in West Virginia border counties by about 4 percent as a result of the imposition of the 6 percent sales tax on food in 1989

Generational Conflict, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth

Worldwide, dependency ratios are forecast to increase dramatically in the next 50 years. A great deal of attention has been devoted to understanding the changes in fiscal policies that must take place to accommodate these changes. In contrast, less effort has been concentrated on studying the fiscal shifts that will endogenously result from demographic pressures. An example of particular interest is the degree to which a more elderly population will support public spending for education. We use an overlapping-generations model to investigate the effect of this demographic transition on the endogenous determination of public spending for education. A demographic transition alters the identity of the median voter, leading to a preference for less education spending. If the public sector is inefficiently small, demographic transition exacerbates the under provision of human capital. Alternatively, such a shift may trim an inefficiently large government, reduce tax rates, and raise capital per worker enough to raise education spending. Thus, there is no automatic link between demographic transition and reduced support for those programs whose benefits are concentrated among the young