Bayesian Data-Driven Models for Irrigation Water Management

A crucial decision in the real-time management of today’s irrigation systems involves the coordination of diversions and delivery of water to croplands. Since most irrigation systems experience significant lags between when water is diverted and when it should be delivered, an important technical innovation in the next few years will involve improvements in short-term irrigation demand forecasting. The main objective of the researches presented was the development of these critically important models: (1) potential evapotranspiration forecasting; (2) hydraulic model error correction; and (3) estimation of aggregate water demands. These tools are based on statistical machine learning or data-driven modeling. These, of wide application in several areas of engineering analysis, can be used in irrigation and system management to provide improved and timely information to water managers. The development of such models is based on a Bayesian data-driven algorithm called the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and an extension of it, the Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM). The use of these types of learning machines has the advantage of avoidance of model overfitting, high robustness in the presence of unseen data, and uncertainty estimation for the results (error bars). The models were applied in an irrigation system located in the Lower Sevier River Basin near Delta, Utah. For the first model, the proposed method allows for estimation of future crop water demand values up to four days in advance. The model uses only daily air temperatures and the MVRVM as mapping algorithm. The second model minimizes the lumped error occurring in hydraulic simulation models. The RVM is applied as an error modeler, providing estimations of the occurring errors during the simulation runs. The third model provides estimation of future water releases for an entire agricultural area based on local data and satellite imagery up to two days in advance. The results obtained indicate the excellent adequacy in terms of accuracy, robustness, and stability, especially in the presence of unseen data. The comparison provided against another data-driven algorithm, of wide use in engineering, the Multilayer Perceptron, further validates the adequacy of use of the RVM and MVRVM for these types of processes

Vicarious Calibration of sUAS Microbolometer Temperature Imagery for Estimation of Radiometric Land Surface Temperature.

In recent years, the availability of lightweight microbolometer thermal cameras compatible with small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) has allowed their use in diverse scientific and management activities that require sub-meter pixel resolution. Nevertheless, as with sensors already used in temperature remote sensing (e.g., Landsat satellites), a radiance atmospheric correction is necessary to estimate land surface temperature. This is because atmospheric conditions at any sUAS flight elevation will have an adverse impact on the image accuracy, derived calculations, and study replicability using the microbolometer technology. This study presents a vicarious calibration methodology (sUAS-specific, time-specific, flight-specific, and sensor-specific) for sUAS temperature imagery traceable back to NIST-standards and current atmospheric correction methods. For this methodology, a three-year data collection campaign with a sUAS called AggieAir , developed at Utah State University, was performed for vineyards near Lodi, California, for flights conducted at different times (early morning, Landsat overpass, and mid-afternoon ) and seasonal conditions. From the results of this study, it was found that, despite the spectral response of microbolometer cameras (7.0 to 14.0 μm), it was possible to account for the effects of atmospheric and sUAS operational conditions, regardless of time and weather, to acquire accurate surface temperature data. In addition, it was found that the main atmospheric correction parameters (transmissivity and atmospheric radiance) significantly varied over the course of a day. These parameters fluctuated the most in early morning and partially stabilized in Landsat overpass and in mid-afternoon times. In terms of accuracy, estimated atmospheric correction parameters presented adequate statistics (confidence bounds under ±0.1 for transmissivity and ±1.2 W/m²/sr/um for atmospheric radiance, with a range of RMSE below 1.0 W/m²/sr/um) for all sUAS flights. Differences in estimated temperatures between original thermal image and the vicarious calibration procedure reported here were estimated from -5 °C to 10 °C for early morning, and from 0 to 20 °C for Landsat overpass and mid-afternoon times

Multispectral Remote Sensing for Yield Estimation Using High-Resolution Imagery From an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Satellites and autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are two major platforms for acquiring remotely-sensed information of the earth’s surface. Due to the limitations of satellite-based imagery, such as coarse spatial resolution and fixed schedules, applications of UAVs as low-cost remote sensing systems are rapidly expanding in many research areas, particularly precision agriculture. UAVs can provide imagery with high spatial resolution (finer than 1 meter) and acquire information in visible, near infrared, and even thermal bands. In agriculture, vegetation characteristics such as health, water stress, and the amount of biomass, can be estimated using UAV imagery. In this study, three sets of high-resolution aerial imagery have been used for yield estimation based on vegetation indices. These images were captured by the Utah State University AggieAir™ UAV system flown in June 2017, August 2017, and October 2017 over a field experiment pasture site located in northern Utah. The pasture study area is primarily tall fescue. The field experiment includes 20 50 x 20-m plots, with 4 replications of 5 irrigation levels. Approximately 60 yield samples were harvested after each flight. Sample locations were recorded with high-accuracy real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS. In addition, the leaf area index (LAI) for each sample plot was measured using an optical sensor (LAI2200C) before harvesting. The relationship of yield for each sample versus vegetation indices (VIs) was explored. The VIs include the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), calculated using AggieAir imagery, and LAI measured using a ground-based sensor. The results of this study reveal the correlation between vegetation indices and the amount of biomass

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation and Effective Rainfall Using Gauge Observations, Satellite, and Gridded Climate Data for Agricultural Water Management in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Accurate spatial and temporal precipitation estimates are important for hydrological studies of irrigation depletion, net irrigation requirement, natural recharge, and hydrological water balances in defined areas. This analysis supports the verification of water savings (reduced depletion)from deficit irrigation of pastures in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The study area has diverse topography with scattered fields and few precipitation gauges that are not representative of the basin.Gridded precipitation products from TRMM-3B42, PRISM, Daymet, and gauge observations were evaluated on two case studies located in Colorado and Wyoming during the 2014–2016 irrigation seasons. First, the resolution at the farm level is discussed. Next, bias occurrence at different timescales (daily to monthly) is evaluated and addressed. Then, the coverage area of the gauge station, along with the impact of the dominant wind direction on the shape of the coverage area, is evaluated. Ultimately, available actual ET maps derived from the METRIC model are used to estimate spatial effective rainfall. The results show that the spatial resolutions of TRMM and PRISM are not adequate at the farm level, while Daymet is a better fit but lacks the adequate latency versus TRMM andPRISM. When compared against local weather station records, all three spatial datasets were found to have a bias that decreases at coarser temporal intervals. However, the performance of Daymet andPRISM at the monthly time step is acceptable, and they can be used for water resource management at the farm level. The adequacy of an existing gauge station for a given farm location depends on the willingness to accept the risk of the bias associated with a non-persistent, non-symmetric gauge coverage area that is highly correlated with the dominant wind direction. Among all goodness off it statistics considered in the study, the interpretation of the summation of error makes more sense for quantifying the rainfall bias and risk for the user. Finally, based on the USDA-SCS model and actual spatial ET, overall, seasonal effective rainfall tends to be less than 60% of total rainfall for agricultural lands

Estimation of Surface Soil Moisture in Irrigated Lands by Assimilation of Landsat Vegetation Indices, Surface Energy Balance Products, and Relevance Vector Machines

Spatial surface soil moisture can be an important indicator of crop conditions on farmland, but its continuous estimation remains challenging due to coarse spatial and temporal resolution of existing remotely-sensed products. Furthermore, while preceding research on soil moisture using remote sensing (surface energy balance, weather parameters, and vegetation indices) has demonstrated a relationship between these factors and soil moisture, practical continuous spatial quantification of the latter is still unavailable for use in water and agricultural management. In this study, a methodology is presented to estimate volumetric surface soil moisture by statistical selection from potential predictors that include vegetation indices and energy balance products derived from satellite (Landsat) imagery and weather data as identified in scientific literature. This methodology employs a statistical learning machine called a Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to identify and relate the potential predictors to soil moisture by means of stratified cross-validation and forward variable selection. Surface soil moisture measurements from irrigated agricultural fields in Central Utah in the 2012 irrigation season were used, along with weather data, Landsat vegetation indices, and energy balance products. The methodology, data collection, processing, and estimation accuracy are presented and discussed. © 2016 by the authors

Implications of Sensor Inconsistencies and Remote Sensing Error in the Use of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems for Generation of Information Products for Agricultural Management

Small, unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for remote sensing represent a relatively new and growing technology to support decisions for agricultural operations. The size and power limitations of these systems present challenges for the weight, size, and capability of the sensors that can be carried, as well as the geographical coverage that is possible. These factors, together with a lack of standards for sensor technology, its deployment, and data analysis, lead to uncertainties in data quality that can be difficult to detect or characterize. These, in turn, limit comparability between data from different sources and, more importantly, imply limits on the analyses that can be accomplished with the data that are acquired with sUAS. This paper offers a simple statistical examination of the implications toward information products of an array of sensor data uncertainty issues. The analysis relies upon high-resolution data collected in 2016 over a commercial vineyard, located near Lodi, California, for the USDA Agricultural Research Service Grape Remote sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX) Program. A Monte Carlo analysis is offered of how uncertainty in sensor spectral response and/or orthorectification accuracy can affect the estimation of information products of potential interest to growers, as illustrated in the form of common vegetation indices

Spatial Scale Gap Filling Using an Unmanned Aerial System: A Statistical Downscaling Method for Applications in Precision Agriculture

Applications of satellite-borne observations in precision agriculture (PA) are often limited due to the coarse spatial resolution of satellite imagery. This paper uses high-resolution airborne observations to increase the spatial resolution of satellite data for related applications in PA. A new variational downscaling scheme is presented that uses coincident aerial imagery products from “AggieAir”, an unmanned aerial system, to increase the spatial resolution of Landsat satellite data. This approach is primarily tested for downscaling individual band Landsat images that can be used to derive normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and surface soil moisture (SSM). Quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate promising capabilities of the downscaling approach enabling effective increase of the spatial resolution of Landsat imageries by orders of 2 to 4. Specifically, the downscaling scheme retrieved the missing high-resolution feature of the imageries and reduced the root mean squared error by 15, 11, and 10 percent in visual, near infrared, and thermal infrared bands, respectively. This metric is reduced by 9% in the derived NDVI and remains negligibly for the soil moisture products

Assessment of Surface Soil Moisture Using High-Resolution Multi-Spectral Imagery and Artificial Neural Networks

Many crop production management decisions can be informed using data from high-resolution aerial images that provide information about crop health as influenced by soil fertility and moisture. Surface soil moisture is a key component of soil water balance, which addresses water and energy exchanges at the surface/atmosphere interface; however, high-resolution remotely sensed data is rarely used to acquire soil moisture values. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to quantify the effectiveness of using spectral images to estimate surface soil moisture. The model produces acceptable estimations of surface soil moisture (root mean square error (RMSE) = 2.0, mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.8, coefficient of correlation (r) = 0.88, coefficient of performance (e) = 0.75 and coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.77) by combining field measurements with inexpensive and readily available remotely sensed inputs. The spatial data (visual spectrum, near infrared, infrared/thermal) are produced by the AggieAir™ platform, which includes an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that enables users to gather aerial imagery at a low price and high spatial and temporal resolutions. This study reports the development of an ANN model that translates AggieAir™ imagery into estimates of surface soil moisture for a large field irrigated by a center pivot sprinkler system

Estimation of Soil Moisture at Different Soil Levels Using Machine Learning Techniques and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Multispectral Imagery

Soil moisture is a key component of water balance models. Physically, it is a nonlinear function of parameters that are not easily measured spatially, such as soil texture and soil type. Thus, several studies have been conducted on the estimation of soil moisture using remotely sensed data and data mining techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). However, all models developed based on these techniques are limited to site-specific applications where they are trained and their parameters are tuned. Moreover, since the system of non-linear equations produced by and conducted in the machine learning process are not accessible to researchers, each application of these machine learning approaches must repeat these training steps for any new study area. The fact that the results of this machine learning, black box approach cannot be easily transferred to different locations for extraction of soil moisture estimates is frustrating, and it can lead to inaccurate comparisons between methods or model performance. To overcome the Black-box issue, this study employed a powerful technique called genetic programming (GP), which is a combination of an evolutionary algorithm and artificial intelligence, to simulate soil moisture at different levels using high-resolution, multispectral imagery acquired with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The output of this approach is either a linear or nonlinear empirical equation that can be used by others. The performance of GP was compared with ANN and SVM modeling results. Several sets of high-resolution aerial imagery captured by the Utah State University AggieAir UAV system over two experimental pasture sites located in northern and southern Utah were used for this soil moisture estimation approach. The inputs used to train these models include the reflectance for the visible, near-infrared (NIR), and thermal bands. The results show (1) the performance of GP versus ANN and SVM and (2) the master equation provided by GP, which can be used in other locations and applications