Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.Conflict, expectations, war, welfare

Activity Choices of Internally Displaced Persons and Returnees: Quantitative Survey Evidence from Post-War Northern Uganda

We study the effect of living in an internally displaced people's (IDP) camp on economic activity choices in post war northern Uganda. As the decision to relocate from a camp is voluntary, camp residents may be different from returnees. We merge household data with micro-level conflict data to control for endogeneity (selection of households out from camps). We find a strong effect of camp residence on activity choices. Particularly, individuals in IDP camps are more inclined to cultivate and engage in trading, than those who returned. However they are less likely to make handicrafts and participate in any of the wide range of activities. The observation that individuals living in camps strive to ensure self-reliance underscores the need for livelihood interventions and other recovery programmes to target not only returnee households but also create opportunities for households still in displacement. This should be coupled with improvement of security around camps to foster increased economic activity. Results also point to the need to fast-track infrastructure development and stimulate local demand that allows returnees to self-sustain.Activity choice, camp residents, conflict, Internally Displaced Persons, northern Uganda, returnees

Smallholder food crop commercialization in Uganda: panel survey evidence from Uganda

A number of policy initiatives in Uganda’s agriculture sector have been tailored towards transforming the sector from subsistence to commercial production. Owing to this background, this study examines the drivers of food crop commercialization in Uganda. The unique feature of this study is threefold: one, we exploit the seasonal component of the surveys to examine the seasonality of participation; two, we provide results of two different measures to proxy commercialization, namely; the likelihood of participation, and intensity of participation, in the market for selected crops; and finally, we investigate these issues using a new panel dataset for Uganda. Findings reveal that different household and community level characteristics pose varying impacts on commercialization across seasons. Of particular interest is evidence that self-sufficiency needs override household decisions during the second season. This finding underscores the need to design interventions that target increased production in this season, characterized by short rains and less production activity

Conflict Experiences and Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Activity Choices of Internally Displaced Persons and Returnees: Quantitative Survey Evidence from Post-War Northern Uganda

We study the effect of living in an internally displaced people’s (IDP) camp on economic activity choices in post war northern Uganda. As the decision to relocate from a camp is voluntary, camp residents may be different from returnees. We merge household data with micro-level conflict data to control for endogeneity (selection of households out from camps). We find a strong effect of camp residence on activity choices. Particularly, individuals in IDP camps are more inclined to cultivate and engage in trading, than those who returned. However they are less likely to make handicrafts and participate in any of the wide range of activities. The observation that individuals living in camps strive to ensure self-reliance underscores the need for livelihood interventions and other recovery programmes to target not only returnee households but also create opportunities for households still in displacement. This should be coupled with improvement of security around camps to foster increased economic activity. Results also point to the need to fast-track infrastructure development and stimulate local demand that allows returnees to self-sustain.