Assessment of vulnerability to climate change: theoretical and methodological developments with applications to infrastructure and built environment

Assessing vulnerability to climate change can help policymakers in incorporating climate futures in planning and in better allocating adaptation resources. Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment (IBVA) has been widely used because it is relatively simple to design, implement and communicate. However, this approach faces significant difficulties from conceptual, theoretical and methodological points of view. A number of assumptions are typically made in methods used for aggregation of indicators—a linear, monotonic relationship between indicator and vulnerability; complete compensation between indicators; precise knowledge of vulnerable systems by stakeholders who provide input data for the assessment exercise—none of which usually hold in reality. Following a meta-analysis of the IBVA literature, the thesis proposes a) a general mathematical framework for vulnerability assessment that better identifies sources of uncertainty and non-linearity; b) a new IBVA assessment methodology, and associated computer tool, based on a pair-wise outranking approach borrowed from decision science; the methodology can represent various sources of uncertainty, different degree of compensation between indicators and different types of non-linearity in the relationship between indicators and vulnerability and; c) a system dynamics model, integrated in the above framework, for studying vulnerability of infrastructure systems and better representing the mechanistic interdependency of their components. These methods are applied to a real-life assessment of the vulnerability to sea-level rise of communities and infrastructure systems in Shoalhaven, south of Sydney, at local scale. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the Shoalhaven council and includes an analysis of the sensitivity of vulnerability rankings to community preferences. In addition, the effect of using an outranking framework on the way vulnerability is conceptualized by stakeholders is critically appraised

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change: theoretical and methodological developments with applications to infrastructure and built environment

Assessing vulnerability to climate change can help policymakers in incorporating climate futures in planning and in better allocating adaptation resources. Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment (IBVA) has been widely used because it is relatively simple to design, implement and communicate. However, this approach faces significant difficulties from conceptual, theoretical and methodological points of view. A number of assumptions are typically made in methods used for aggregation of indicators—a linear, monotonic relationship between indicator and vulnerability; complete compensation between indicators; precise knowledge of vulnerable systems by stakeholders who provide input data for the assessment exercise—none of which usually hold in reality. Following a meta-analysis of the IBVA literature, the thesis proposes a) a general mathematical framework for vulnerability assessment that better identifies sources of uncertainty and non-linearity; b) a new IBVA assessment methodology, and associated computer tool, based on a pair-wise outranking approach borrowed from decision science; the methodology can represent various sources of uncertainty, different degree of compensation between indicators and different types of non-linearity in the relationship between indicators and vulnerability and; c) a system dynamics model, integrated in the above framework, for studying vulnerability of infrastructure systems and better representing the mechanistic interdependency of their components. These methods are applied to a real-life assessment of the vulnerability to sea-level rise of communities and infrastructure systems in Shoalhaven, south of Sydney, at local scale. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the Shoalhaven council and includes an analysis of the sensitivity of vulnerability rankings to community preferences. In addition, the effect of using an outranking framework on the way vulnerability is conceptualized by stakeholders is critically appraised

Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise Of 8 Beaches In Shoalhaven: A New Multi-Dimensional Assessment Methodology

Coastal councils around the world are likely to be affected by future climatic impacts such as sea level rise and extreme flooding. Shoalhaven City Council is responsible for the sustainable management of 165 kilometres of open coast, the longest of any local government area in New South Wales. In order to prepare a comprehensive coastal zone management plan, Council investigated present and expected future coastal risks on its beaches. Detailed studies identified eight beaches where coastal hazards would significantly impact private properties and public assets. In order to help decision-makers in prioritising management actions for the eight areas, an analytical tool is needed that would not only quantify the physical risks to infrastructure but would also be able to integrate social and environmental considerations towards a holistic assessment of the vulnerability of each beach area. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conceptualisation, the vulnerability of a community to a climate hazard can be seen as determined by the degree of physical exposure to the hazard, as well as the community’s sensitivity to its impacts and its ability to cope with, or adapt to, these impacts. Hence, vulnerability assessment presents a number of theoretical and methodological challenges, the most important of which are epitomized by the following questions: 1. how to determine, say whether a community with high exposure and high adaptive capacity is more vulnerable or less vulnerable than a community with lower exposure but lower adaptive capacity? (problem of compensation). 2. how to incorporate the imprecision and value-judgments inevitably present in multistakeholder vulnerability assessments while maintaining a consistent and robust scientific process? (problem of fuzziness). A new methodology has been developed at the University of Sydney that addresses these questions and offers a clear and consistent approach for conducting vulnerability assessments. The paper describes the application of this methodology to the ranking of vulnerabilities to sea level rise of eight beaches in Shoalhaven

Trails of Media Trial: Impacts on Judiciary and Society in Bangladesh

The media is supposed to be a light bearer of truth and justice as people tend to trust the circulations of media. However, using this as an advantage, the media often brings delicate judicial issues on a trial which results in the suffering of the victim. The key objective of this research was to explore the impacts of the trials of media on the justice system and society of Bangladesh. Primary data were collected using qualitative tools like In-Depth Interviews to understand the rigor of the research problem. At the same time, secondary data such as several case studies were collected to depict the history of media trials in Bangladesh. The research found the capability of media trials to impact the judicial system and society of Bangladesh adversely through indirect influence on the juror, evasion of privacy of the personnel associated with the cases, and misuse of social media. The research opted for effective policies to be formed by the government to regulate media influence on judicial cases so that media trials cannot impact the system. Keywords: Media trial, Press, Judiciary, Justice System, Impact, Society. DOI: 10.7176/NMMC/106-0

An investigation of coastal climate change risk assessment practice in Australia

Local government organisations in coastal Australia have historically commissioned studies aimed at understanding risks in their locality to future sea level rise as a starting point for developing adaptation strategies to climate change. Therefore, the success of the overall adaptation activities of local government are strongly influenced by the way those initial risk studies are scoped and conducted, and how the outputs of those studies underpin subsequent adaptation planning activities within the organization. Mainstreaming of adaptation planning activities within local government is critical in terms of getting stakeholder support and required resources for its implementation. This paper analyses a sample of these coastal risk assessment studies across seven states and territories in Australia, with an aim to critically investigate the current state of practice among coastal local governments. First, we develop a typology of studies that have been undertaken by or for practitioners to understand coastal climate change risks, and discuss the applicability of the studies within the policy making context of local government. Second, we identify a set of sample studies from the 'grey literature' through a systematic process and investigate to what extent they adhere to best practice risk management guidelines and principles, such as IS031000. Third, we interview stakeholders from top performing studies to identify how/if the risk studies helped their organization in progressing their adaptation planning. We find that there is a significant inconsistency among terminologies in the coastal climate change risk assessment unpublished literature as studies use "risk", vulnerability" and "hazard" concepts interchangeably despite their separate objectives and aims. Most studies perform poorly in evaluating risk against broader organizational criteria. Subsequently, it is difficult to integrate the findings of such studies into a broader organizational risk register, limiting opportunities for identified coastal climate change risks to be integrated into councils' long-term strategic decision making. Conversely, the follow up interviews of studies that performed well in scoping and consultation in our assessment demonstrate that these aspects were beneficial to stakeholders in terms of informing adaptation planning. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper confirm the need for a consistent risk assessment approach for local councils in the coastal zone to underpin successful adaptation planning. This is a critical issue, not only for Australia, but for local government organisations globally given that sea level rise is a projected threat for all populated coastal regions worldwide

Optimization of Thermal Comfort and Energy Consumption in Bangladesh Ready-Made Garment Factories: An Approach towards the Path to Net Zero Energy Buildings

RMG workers in Bangladesh are facing scorching heat due to regional climatic conditions and increasing temperatures due to climate change. This research investigates the indoor thermal condition of a ready-made garment (RMG) factory and develops strategies to improve the comfort of workers. Energy optimization is carried out and design features are identified (e.g. window, shading and skylight configurations) that achieve the best energy performance. Eight simulation steps are also carried out to accomplish the process towards the path to net zero energy building (NZEB). Simulation analysis is carried out to measure energy use intensity (EUI) over the year for the base case building. By changing various features, a further seven steps of simulation are carried out to reduce the EUI value and turn it into zero energy building. The EUI value is gradually decreased at each step. The research shows that nearly 750,000 kWh energy can be saved per year in the case RMG factory. The incorporation of photovoltaic (PV) panels can harvest approximately 40,000 kWh over the year