Multi-class cancer classification by total principal component regression (TPCR) using microarray gene expression data

DNA microarray technology provides a promising approach to the diagnosis and prognosis of tumors on a genome-wide scale by monitoring the expression levels of thousands of genes simultaneously. One problem arising from the use of microarray data is the difficulty to analyze the high-dimensional gene expression data, typically with thousands of variables (genes) and much fewer observations (samples), in which severe collinearity is often observed. This makes it difficult to apply directly the classical statistical methods to investigate microarray data. In this paper, total principal component regression (TPCR) was proposed to classify human tumors by extracting the latent variable structure underlying microarray data from the augmented subspace of both independent variables and dependent variables. One of the salient features of our method is that it takes into account not only the latent variable structure but also the errors in the microarray gene expression profiles (independent variables). The prediction performance of TPCR was evaluated by both leave-one-out and leave-half-out cross-validation using four well-known microarray datasets. The stabilities and reliabilities of the classification models were further assessed by re-randomization and permutation studies. A fast kernel algorithm was applied to decrease the computation time dramatically. (MATLAB source code is available upon request.

Investigation of reproducibility of differentially expressed genes in DNA microarrays through statistical simulation

Recent publications have raised concerns about the reliability of microarray technology because of the lack of reproducibility of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from highly similar studies across laboratories and platforms. The rat toxicogenomics study of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC) project empirically revealed that the DEGs selected using a fold change (FC)-based criterion were more reproducible than those derived solely by statistical significance such as P-value from a simple t-tests. In this study, we generate a set of simulated microarray datasets to compare gene selection/ranking rules, including P-value, FC and their combinations, using the percentage of overlapping genes between DEGs from two similar simulated datasets as the measure of reproducibility. The results are supportive of the MAQC's conclusion on that DEG lists are more reproducible across laboratories and platforms when FC-based ranking coupled with a nonstringent P-value cutoff is used for gene selection compared with selection based on P-value based ranking method. We conclude that the MAQC recommendation should be considered when reproducibility is an important study objective

Selecting a single model or combining multiple models for microarray-based classifier development? – A comparative analysis based on large and diverse datasets generated from the MAQC-II project

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Genomic biomarkers play an increasing role in both preclinical and clinical application. Development of genomic biomarkers with microarrays is an area of intensive investigation. However, despite sustained and continuing effort, developing microarray-based predictive models (i.e., genomics biomarkers) capable of reliable prediction for an observed or measured outcome (i.e., endpoint) of unknown samples in preclinical and clinical practice remains a considerable challenge. No straightforward guidelines exist for selecting a single model that will perform best when presented with unknown samples. In the second phase of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC-II) project, 36 analysis teams produced a large number of models for 13 preclinical and clinical endpoints. Before external validation was performed, each team nominated one model per endpoint (referred to here as 'nominated models') from which MAQC-II experts selected 13 'candidate models' to represent the best model for each endpoint. Both the nominated and candidate models from MAQC-II provide benchmarks to assess other methodologies for developing microarray-based predictive models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a simple ensemble method by taking a number of the top performing models from cross-validation and developing an ensemble model for each of the MAQC-II endpoints. We compared the ensemble models with both nominated and candidate models from MAQC-II using blinded external validation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For 10 of the 13 MAQC-II endpoints originally analyzed by the MAQC-II data analysis team from the National Center for Toxicological Research (NCTR), the ensemble models achieved equal or better predictive performance than the NCTR nominated models. Additionally, the ensemble models had performance comparable to the MAQC-II candidate models. Most ensemble models also had better performance than the nominated models generated by five other MAQC-II data analysis teams that analyzed all 13 endpoints.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that an ensemble method can often attain a higher average predictive performance in an external validation set than a corresponding “optimized” model method. Using an ensemble method to determine a final model is a potentially important supplement to the good modeling practices recommended by the MAQC-II project for developing microarray-based genomic biomarkers.</p

Construction and Characterization of an Infectious Murine Gammaherpesivrus-68 Bacterial Artificial Chromosome

Here we describe the cloning of a sequenced WUMS isolate of murine gammaherpesvirus-68 (MHV-68, γHV-68, also known as MuHV-4) as a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC). We engineered the insertion of the BAC sequence flanked by loxP sites into the left end of the viral genome before the M1 open reading frame. The infectious viruses were reconstituted following transfection of the MHV-68 BAC DNA into cells. The MHV-68 BAC-derived virus replicated indistinguishably from the wild-type virus in cultured cells. Excision of the BAC insert was efficiently achieved by coexpressing the Cre recombinase. Although the BAC insertion did not significantly affect acute productive infection in the lung, it severely compromised the ability of MHV-68 to establish splenic latency. Removal of the BAC sequence restored the wild-type level of latency. Site-specific mutagenesis was carried out by RecA-mediated recombination to demonstrate that this infectious BAC clone can be used for genetic studies of MHV-68

Evaluation of gene expression data generated from expired Affymetrix GeneChip® microarrays using MAQC reference RNA samples

BACKGROUND: The Affymetrix GeneChip(®) system is a commonly used platform for microarray analysis but the technology is inherently expensive. Unfortunately, changes in experimental planning and execution, such as the unavailability of previously anticipated samples or a shift in research focus, may render significant numbers of pre-purchased GeneChip(®) microarrays unprocessed before their manufacturer’s expiration dates. Researchers and microarray core facilities wonder whether expired microarrays are still useful for gene expression analysis. In addition, it was not clear whether the two human reference RNA samples established by the MAQC project in 2005 still maintained their transcriptome integrity over a period of four years. Experiments were conducted to answer these questions. RESULTS: Microarray data were generated in 2009 in three replicates for each of the two MAQC samples with either expired Affymetrix U133A or unexpired U133Plus2 microarrays. These results were compared with data obtained in 2005 on the U133Plus2 microarray. The percentage of overlap between the lists of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from U133Plus2 microarray data generated in 2009 and in 2005 was 97.44%. While there was some degree of fold change compression in the expired U133A microarrays, the percentage of overlap between the lists of DEGs from the expired and unexpired microarrays was as high as 96.99%. Moreover, the microarray data generated using the expired U133A microarrays in 2009 were highly concordant with microarray and TaqMan(®) data generated by the MAQC project in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrated that microarray data generated using U133A microarrays, which were more than four years past the manufacturer’s expiration date, were highly specific and consistent with those from unexpired microarrays in identifying DEGs despite some appreciable fold change compression and decrease in sensitivity. Our data also suggested that the MAQC reference RNA samples, stored at -80°C, were stable over a time frame of at least four years

Using Decision Forest to Classify Prostate Cancer Samples on the Basis of SELDI-TOF MS Data: Assessing Chance Correlation and Prediction Confidence

Class prediction using “omics” data is playing an increasing role in toxicogenomics, diagnosis/prognosis, and risk assessment. These data are usually noisy and represented by relatively few samples and a very large number of predictor variables (e.g., genes of DNA microarray data or m/z peaks of mass spectrometry data). These characteristics manifest the importance of assessing potential random correlation and overfitting of noise for a classification model based on omics data. We present a novel classification method, decision forest (DF), for class prediction using omics data. DF combines the results of multiple heterogeneous but comparable decision tree (DT) models to produce a consensus prediction. The method is less prone to overfitting of noise and chance correlation. A DF model was developed to predict presence of prostate cancer using a proteomic data set generated from surface-enhanced laser deposition/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (SELDI-TOF MS). The degree of chance correlation and prediction confidence of the model was rigorously assessed by extensive cross-validation and randomization testing. Comparison of model prediction with imposed random correlation demonstrated biologic relevance of the model and the reduction of overfitting in DF. Furthermore, two confidence levels (high and low confidences) were assigned to each prediction, where most misclassifications were associated with the low-confidence region. For the high-confidence prediction, the model achieved 99.2% sensitivity and 98.2% specificity. The model also identified a list of significant peaks that could be useful for biomarker identification. DF should be equally applicable to other omics data such as gene expression data or metabolomic data. The DF algorithm is available upon request

Shifting from Population-wide to Personalized Cancer Prognosis with Microarrays

The era of personalized medicine for cancer therapeutics has taken an important step forward in making accurate prognoses for individual patients with the adoption of high-throughput microarray technology. However, microarray technology in cancer diagnosis or prognosis has been primarily used for the statistical evaluation of patient populations, and thus excludes inter-individual variability and patient-specific predictions. Here we propose a metric called clinical confidence that serves as a measure of prognostic reliability to facilitate the shift from population-wide to personalized cancer prognosis using microarray-based predictive models. The performance of sample-based models predicted with different clinical confidences was evaluated and compared systematically using three large clinical datasets studying the following cancers: breast cancer, multiple myeloma, and neuroblastoma. Survival curves for patients, with different confidences, were also delineated. The results show that the clinical confidence metric separates patients with different prediction accuracies and survival times. Samples with high clinical confidence were likely to have accurate prognoses from predictive models. Moreover, patients with high clinical confidence would be expected to live for a notably longer or shorter time if their prognosis was good or grim based on the models, respectively. We conclude that clinical confidence could serve as a beneficial metric for personalized cancer prognosis prediction utilizing microarrays. Ascribing a confidence level to prognosis with the clinical confidence metric provides the clinician an objective, personalized basis for decisions, such as choosing the severity of the treatment

Maximum predictive power of the microarray-based models for clinical outcomes is limited by correlation between endpoint and gene expression profile

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microarray data have been used for gene signature selection to predict clinical outcomes. Many studies have attempted to identify factors that affect models' performance with only little success. Fine-tuning of model parameters and optimizing each step of the modeling process often results in over-fitting problems without improving performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose a quantitative measurement, termed consistency degree, to detect the correlation between disease endpoint and gene expression profile. Different endpoints were shown to have different consistency degrees to gene expression profiles. The validity of this measurement to estimate the consistency was tested with significance at a p-value less than 2.2e-16 for all of the studied endpoints. According to the consistency degree score, overall survival milestone outcome of multiple myeloma was proposed to extend from 730 days to 1561 days, which is more consistent with gene expression profile.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>For various clinical endpoints, the maximum predictive powers of different microarray-based models are limited by the correlation between endpoint and gene expression profile of disease samples as indicated by the consistency degree score. In addition, previous defined clinical outcomes can also be reassessed and refined more coherent according to related disease gene expression profile. Our findings point to an entirely new direction for assessing the microarray-based predictive models and provide important information to gene signature based clinical applications.</p