Hierarchical elimination-by-aspects and nested logit models of stated preferences for alternative fuel vehicles

1. INTRODUCTION Since the late 1960s, transport demand analysis has been the context for significant developments in model forms for the representation of discrete choice behaviour. Such developments have adhered almost exclusively to the behavioural paradigm of Random Utility Maximisation (RUM), first proposed by Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960). A common argument for the allegiance to RUM is that it ensures consistency with the fundamental axioms of microeconomic consumer theory and, it follows, permits interface between the demand model and the concepts of welfare economics (e.g. Koppelman and Wen, 2001). The desire to better represent observed choice, which has driven developments in RUM models, has been somewhat at odds, however, with the frequent assault on the utility maximisation paradigm, and by implication RUM, from a range of literatures. This critique has challenged the empirical validity of the fundamental axioms (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky, 2000; Mclntosh and Ryan, 2002; Saelensmide, 1999) and, more generally, the realism of the notion of instrumental rationality inherent in utility maximisation (e.g. Hargreaves-Heap, 1992; McFadden, 1999; Camerer, 1998). Emanating from these literatures has been an alternative family of so-called non-RUM models, which seek to offer greater realism in the representation of how individuals actually process choice tasks. The workshop on Methodological Developments at the 2000 Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research concluded: 'Non-RUM models deserve to be evaluated side-by-side with RUM models to determine their practicality, ability to describe behaviour, and usefulness for transportation policy. The research agenda should include tests of these models' (Bolduc and McFadden, 2001 p326). The present paper, together with a companion paper, Batley and Daly (2003), offer a timely contribution to this research priority. Batley and Daly (2003) present a detailed account of the theoretical derivation of RUM, and consider the relationships of two specific RUM forms; nested logit [NL] (Ben-Akiva, 1974; Williams, 1977; Daly and Zachary, 1976; McFadden, 1978) and recursive nested extreme value [RNEV] (Daly, 2001 ; Bierlaire, 2002; Daly and Bierlaire, 2003); to two specific non-RUM forms; elimination-by-aspects [EBA] (Tversky, 1972a, 1972b) and hierarchical EBA [HEBA] (Tversky and Sattath, 1979). In particular, Batley and Daly (2003) establish conditions under which NL and RNEV derive equivalent choice probabilities to HEBA and EBA, respectively. These findings would seem to ameliorate the concern that the application of RUM models to data generated by non-RUM choice processes could introduce significant biases. That aside, substantive issues remain as to how non-RUM models can best be specified so as to yield useful and robust information in both estimation and forecasting contexts, and how their empirical performance compares with RUM models. Such issues are the focus of the present paper, which applies non-RUM models to a real empirical context

The latest results from the MINOS oscillation experiment

The MINOS experiment is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment, which utilizes neutrinos from the Fermilab NuMI muon neutrino beam. The neutrino flux from this beamline is studied before and after oscillation with two separate magnetized tracking calorimeter detectors. MINOS has recently carried out several studies in the field of neutrino oscillations, using 7.2×1020 protons on target of neutrino data, and 1.71 × 1020 protons on target of antineutrino data. These studies include a precision study of the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters sin2(2θ23) and |Δm223|, a comparative study of the atmospheric antineutrino oscillation parameters sin2(2¯θ23) and |Δ¯m223|, an attempt to measure θ13 by looking for νμ → νe oscillations, and a search for oscillations to an additional sterile state

Anomalous Elasticity of Polymer Cholesterics

We show that polymer cholesterics have much longer pitches than comparable short molecule cholesterics, due to their anomalous elasticity. The pitch $P$ of a chiral mixture with concentration $c$ near the racemic (non-chiral) concentration $c^*$ diverges like $\vert c-c^*\vert^{-\nu}$ with $\nu=1.43 \pm 0.04$ (for short molecule cholesterics $\nu=1$). The short molecule law is recovered for polymers of finite molecular length $\ell$ once the pitch is longer than a length that diverges like $\ell^\gamma$ with $\gamma=0.67 \pm 0.01$. Our predictions could be tested by measurements of the pitch in DNA.Comment: 12 pages, Plain TeX, (1 postscript figure, compressed, uuencoded and appended to paper), minor corrections, IASSNS-HEP-94/4

Putting livelihoods thinking into practice: implications for development management.

YesThe failure of `blueprint¿ development interventions to deliver substantive improvements in poverty reduction has been well recognised over the last twenty years. Process approaches seek to overcome the rigidity and top-down operation of much aid-funded intervention. Sustainable livelihoods approaches (SLA) are one of the latest additions to this family of approaches. As a theoretical framework and as a set of principles for guiding intervention, sustainable livelihoods thinking has implications for development management. Drawing on research exploring the application of sustainable livelihoods principles in ten development interventions, this paper considers how these principles have evolved from continuing debates surrounding process and people-centred (bottom-up) approaches to development management. This research suggests that whilst these principles can improve the impact made by interventions, the effective application of sustainable livelihoods and other process approaches are fundamentally restricted by unbalanced power relationships between development partners

Clash of symmetries on the brane

If our 3+1-dimensional universe is a brane or domain wall embedded in a higher dimensional space, then a phenomenon we term the ``clash of symmetries'' provides a new method of breaking some continuous symmetries. A global $G_{\text{cts}} \otimes G_{\text{discrete}}$ symmetry is spontaneously broken to $H_{\text{cts}} \otimes H_{\text{discrete}}$, where the continuous subgroup $H_{\text{cts}}$ can be embedded in several different ways in the parent group $G_{\text{cts}}$, and $H_{\text{discrete}} < G_{\text{discrete}}$. A certain class of topological domain wall solutions connect two vacua that are invariant under {\it differently embedded} $H_{\text{cts}}$ subgroups. There is then enhanced symmetry breakdown to the intersection of these two subgroups on the domain wall. This is the ``clash''. In the brane limit, we obtain a configuration with $H_{\text{cts}}$ symmetries in the bulk but the smaller intersection symmetry on the brane itself. We illustrate this idea using a permutation symmetric three-Higgs-triplet toy model exploiting the distinct $I-$, $U-$ and $V-$spin U(2) subgroups of U(3). The three disconnected portions of the vacuum manifold can be treated symmetrically through the construction of a three-fold planar domain wall junction configuration, with our universe at the nexus. A possible connection with $E_6$ is discussed.Comment: 30 pages, 9 embedded figure

Flocking Regimes in a Simple Lattice Model

We study a one-dimensional lattice flocking model incorporating all three of the flocking criteria proposed by Reynolds [Computer Graphics vol.21 4 (1987)]: alignment, centring and separation. The model generalises that introduced by O. J. O' Loan and M. R. Evans [J. Phys. A. vol. 32 L99 (1999)]. We motivate the dynamical rules by microscopic sampling considerations. The model exhibits various flocking regimes: the alternating flock, the homogeneous flock and dipole structures. We investigate these regimes numerically and within a continuum mean-field theory.Comment: 24 pages 7 figure

The illusion of community ownership: community-based water management in Uchira, Kilimanjaro region

Water resource managementSocial participationWater users’ associationsWater policyWater shortagePricingWater costsWater supplyLabor

The illusion of community ownership: community-based water management in Uchira, Kilimanjaro region

Water resource managementWater governanceSocial participationWater users’ associationsWater policyWater shortagePricingWater costsWater supplyLabor

A New Phase of Tethered Membranes: Tubules

We show that fluctuating tethered membranes with {\it any} intrinsic anisotropy unavoidably exhibit a new phase between the previously predicted ``flat'' and ``crumpled'' phases, in high spatial dimensions $d$ where the crumpled phase exists. In this new "tubule" phase, the membrane is crumpled in one direction but extended nearly straight in the other. Its average thickness is $R_G\sim L^{\nu_t}$ with $L$ the intrinsic size of the membrane. This phase is more likely to persist down to $d=3$ than the crumpled phase. In Flory theory, the universal exponent $\nu_t=3/4$, which we conjecture is an exact result. We study the elasticity and fluctuations of the tubule state, and the transitions into it.Comment: 4 pages, self-unpacking uuencoded compressed postscript file with figures already inside text; unpacking instructions are at the top of file. To appear in Phys. Rev. Lett. November (1995

An experimental study investigating the ability of volunteers to identify squirrel species from tail–hair samples

Un estudio experimental sobre la capacidad de los voluntarios de reconocer las especies de ardilla a partir de muestras de pelo de la cola Las trampas de pelo, que permiten recoger los pelos de la nuca, se utilizan ampliamente para establecer la presencia de la ardilla común (Sciurus vulgaris) y la ardilla gris (Sciurus carolinensis). No obstante, es un método que requiere mucho tiempo y se presta a errores de identificación. Una alternativa es recoger pelos de la cola mediante cintas adhesivas colocadas en postes que sostienen un cebo en la parte superior. Sin embargo, no existen datos sobre la precisión de la identificación del pelo de la cola. En este estudio se informa de un experimento en que se ofreció una breve sesión formativa a las personas antes de que identificaran las muestras de pelo de las cuatro especies. El índice de identificación correcta fue del 96,5% para los pelos de la ardilla gris y del 77,5% para los de la ardilla común, lo que sugiere que los pelos de la cola pueden proporcionar un método rápido, fácil y preciso de identificar ambas especies.Hair–tubes, collecting nape hairs, are widely used for establishing the presence of red (Sciurus vulgaris) and grey (Sciurus carolinensis) squirrels. However it is time–consuming and prone to identification errors. An alternative is to collect tail hairs from sticky pads on baited poles. However, there is no evidence concerning identification accuracy of tail hairs. This study reports an experiment in which subjects underwent a short training session before identifying hair samples from four species. There was a 96.5% correct identification rate for grey squirrel hairs, and 77.5% for red squirrels, which suggests that tail hairs collection may provide a quick, easy and accurate method of identification for both species.Un estudio experimental sobre la capacidad de los voluntarios de reconocer las especies de ardilla a partir de muestras de pelo de la cola Las trampas de pelo, que permiten recoger los pelos de la nuca, se utilizan ampliamente para establecer la presencia de la ardilla común (Sciurus vulgaris) y la ardilla gris (Sciurus carolinensis). No obstante, es un método que requiere mucho tiempo y se presta a errores de identificación. Una alternativa es recoger pelos de la cola mediante cintas adhesivas colocadas en postes que sostienen un cebo en la parte superior. Sin embargo, no existen datos sobre la precisión de la identificación del pelo de la cola. En este estudio se informa de un experimento en que se ofreció una breve sesión formativa a las personas antes de que identificaran las muestras de pelo de las cuatro especies. El índice de identificación correcta fue del 96,5% para los pelos de la ardilla gris y del 77,5% para los de la ardilla común, lo que sugiere que los pelos de la cola pueden proporcionar un método rápido, fácil y preciso de identificar ambas especies