INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL GEOGRAPHY

This dissertation explores the impact of international trade on the geographic location of manufacturing activities and on regional productivity growth patterns within countries. This study develops models of trade with monopolistic competition in the context of a two-region country. It also provides empirical estimates of the e ect of tari policy on the distribution of industrial activities and on productivity growth di erentials across Colombia\u27s regions. The rst essay investigates the consequences of trade liberalization for the distribution of manufacturing activities between large and small cities. It presents an extension of the Melitz (2003) model of trade with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous rms where producers\u27 location and export market participation decisions depend on their productivity. As a country\u27s exposure to trade shifts, rms and output are reallocated between large and small urban areas. Data from Colombia\u27s manufacturing sector lend support to theoretical predictions concerning tari reduction\u27s impact on the repartition of industrial activities between metro- and nonmetropolitan areas in this country. The second essay extends the New Economic Geography, Footloose-Capital model to examine the e ect of commercial policy on the distribution of industrial activities between regions within a country. This study aims at distinguishing theoretical cases with regard to the nature of the trade policy change or to the source of asymmetry between regions. It shows that trade liberalization can have adverse consequences for the manufacturing sector of a small or isolated region under bilateral liberalization, but a positive impact under unilateral trade liberalization. The third essay adapts the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model of trade with monopolistic competition, heterogeneous rms, and variable mark-ups to analyze the relationship between trade openness, regional market size, and regional aggregate industry performance. It demonstrates that the impact of trade liberalization on aggregate industry productivity growth varies across regions as a function of regional market size and proximity to foreign markets. A larger region experiences a greater increase in aggregate productivity through intra-industry reallocation of market shares. Similarly, a region with better access to international markets enjoys a higher productivity growth from tari reduction. Empirical evidence is obtained from the Colombian manufacturing sector

Supply Chain Management and the Changing Structure of U.S. Organic Produce

Replaced with revised version of paper 08/31/06.supply chain, produce, organic, vertical coordination, Agribusiness,

Impact of El Niño on Staple Food Prices in East and Southern Africa

Demand and Price Analysis,

IS THE THINLY-TRADED BUTTER FUTURES CONTRACT PRICED EFFICIENTLY?

After over eight years of trading, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange butter futures contract remains thinly traded, possibly impeding price discovery. Pricing efficiency was assessed using cointegration techniques and error correction models. Results suggest that market efficiency could not be rejected up to a two-month forecast horizon. Illiquid markets reduce hedging performance, which in turn discourage liquidity growth.Marketing,

The Impact of Trade and Investment Liberalization on Rural Manufacturing

Rural areas in the United States, like in other OECD countries, rely heavily on manufacturing as a source of income. Taking stock of previous studies on the impact of trade and FDI liberalization on manufacturing industries, this study presents a model with heterogeneous firms in the context of a country consisting of an urban and a rural regions. We examine how a manufacturing industry responds differently in the urban and the rural regions when the domestic economy becomes open to trade and investment with a foreign partner.Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade,

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises

IS THE THINLY-TRADED BUTTER FUTURES CONTRACT PRICED EFFICIENTLY?

After over eight years of trading, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange butter futures contract remains thinly traded, possibly impeding price discovery. Pricing efficiency was assessed using cointegration techniques and error correction models. Results suggest that market efficiency could not be rejected up to a two-month forecast horizon. Illiquid markets reduce hedging performance, which in turn discourage liquidity growth

Supply Chain Management and the Changing Structure of U.S. Organic Produce

We present the results of a survey of the organic produce supply chain in the U.S., focusing on supply chain dynamics and firm behavior with a view to changing market forces. The survey suggests firms are projecting increased activity with organic products, but they are changing the way they are sourcing from their suppliers. Shippers and wholesalers are using fewer, larger suppliers to provide a greater proportion of their produce. There is an increasing prevalence of contracting for both organic and conventional produce. The expanding presence of the mass merchandisers in organic produce is expected to actually stimulate demand, but it also leads to an increased competition for suppliers. There is significant effort to coordinate business functions between shippers and suppliers