Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

When building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and consequent forecasting of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. While the short-term seasonal components (daily, weekly) are more regular and less important for valuation of typical power derivatives, the long-term seasonal components (LTSC; seasonal, annual) are much more difficult to tackle. Surprisingly, in many academic papers dealing with electricity spot price modeling the importance of the seasonal decomposition is neglected and the problem of forecasting it is not considered. With this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the LTSC of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that all considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than all considered sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on sinusoidal long-term seasonal components

Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

When building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and consequent forecasting of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. While the short-term seasonal components (daily, weekly) are more regular and less important for valuation of typical power derivatives, the long-term seasonal components (LTSC; seasonal, annual) are much more difficult to tackle. Surprisingly, in many academic papers dealing with electricity spot price modeling the importance of the seasonal decomposition is neglected and the problem of forecasting it is not considered. With this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the LTSC of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that all considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than all considered sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on sinusoidal long-term seasonal components

Flower power:Finding optimal plant cutting strategies through a combination of optimization and data mining

We study a problem that plays an important role in the flower industry: we must determine how many mother plants are required to be able to produce a given demand of cuttings per week. This sounds like an easy problem, but working with living material (plants) introduces complications that are rarely encountered in optimization problems: there is no list with possible cutting patterns, describing the average number of cuttings taken from a mother plant per week. More importantly, there is no easy way to find out whether a cutting pattern is feasible, that is, whether the mother plants can keep up delivering the number of cuttings required by the cutting pattern each week: the only alternative to asking for an 'expert's opinion' is to apply a field-test, which takes a lot of time (and there are very many options to check).We have tackled this problem by a combination of data mining and linear programming. We apply data mining to infer constraints that a feasible cutting pattern should obey, and we use these constraints in a linear programming formulation to determine the minimum number of mother plants that are needed to supply the demand. Due to the linearity of the constraints obtained by data mining, this formulation can be reformulated such that it becomes trivially solvable. Next, we look at the problem of finding the optimal number of mother plants for the case that we can sell a given number of the remaining cuttings on the market for a given price; we show that this problem can be solved efficiently through linear programming

Intoxication-related teenagers' suicide attempts - an analysis of the issue

Introduction and Aim:  Adolescent suicide attempts are a significant clinical and social issue. Often, young people resort to medications, alcohol, or psychoactive substances in their suicide attempts. The aim of this study was to analyze the factors contributing to suicidal behaviors and the characteristics of substances used by adolescents for suicidal purposes.Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, medical documentation analysis was used. The study included the medical records of 45 individuals up to 18 years of age who were admitted to the Clinical Toxicology-Cardiology Department due to poisoning for the purpose of suicide in the year 2022.Results: The study group consisted of 45 individuals aged 15 to 18 years. Suicide attempts accounted for 37.5% of toxicology hospitalizations in the under 18 age group. The dominant group consisted of females (82.2%) and urban residents (62.2%). Those hospitalized following a suicide attempt primarily used medications, often over-the-counter analgesics. The majority (71.1%) suffered from mental disorders, predominantly depressive disorders (81.2%).Conclusions: Among suicide attempts involving intoxication, those utilizing medications are dominant. A concerning phenomenon is the use of over-the-counter (OTC) medications, commonly considered safe. Girls are particularly vulnerable to emotional difficulties that can lead to suicide. Mental disorders pose a suicidal risk, and patients with such disorders have access to psychiatric medications that can become tools for self-harm

Why should we restrain the availability of paracetamol - an analysis of acetaminophen intoxication in adolescents

Introduction and aim: Paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a commonly used analgesics and antipyretics and it is a nonprescription medicine. Improper use of it may lead to accidental or intentional poisoning. The aim of the study was to analyse paracetamol poisonings in children and adolescents admitted to the Clinical Department of Toxicology and Cardiology in Stefan Wyszyński Regional Specialist Hospital in Lublin in 2022. Material and methods: The research was retrospective. Medical records of poisoning cases in patients up to the age of 18 were analysed specifically emphasizing acetaminophen poisonings.Results: In the studied period 120 adolescents were hospitalized due to intoxication, 65 of them due to medications intake, the most commonly used medicine was acetaminophen. There were 20 cases of hospitalization because of acetaminophen intake, 17 (85%) patients were female and 3 (15%) of them were male. Patients were from 15 to 17 years old. In 12 cases (60%) patients came from urban areas. The intentional intoxications were found in 18 (90%) cases, 13 of them were suicide attempt. Majority of cases of attempted suicide were female (92%). The other intoxications were accidental, where patients took acetaminophen as a painkiller. In the researched group there were no deaths.Conclusions: Paracetamol overdosing is always associated with the risk of liver damage.This medicament as a potentially hepatotoxic drug should not be sold over the counter. The availability of paracetamol is too widespread, which poses a risk especially to children and adolescents. The ubiquitous advertising of acetaminophen products as well as their popular use, for example, in menstrual pain, favor their presence in almost every Polish home. Parents and guardians should be educated about the dangers of uncontrolled use of so-called OTC drugs - incorrectly commonly considered safe

Poisoning and suicide attempts in adolescent girls - a problem we need to be aware of

Introduction and purpose: Poisoning among children and adolescents is occurring on an ever-increasing scale. Women are particularly susceptible to intentional poisoning, and they predominate in the statistics of self-poisoning. The aim of the study is to analyze cases of poisoning in girls under 18 years of age hospitalized in the Clinical Toxicology and Cardiology Department of the Stefan Cardinal Wyszynski Regional Hospital in Lublin in 2022, taking into account the type of substance ingested, the place of residence of the patients and comorbidities.Material and methods: The study was retrospective in nature. It used the analysis of medical records of 84 cases of intoxication in girls under 18 years of age.Results: During the time period studied, 84 girls aged 13-18 were hospitalized for poisoning. Most of the cases were urban residents (64.3%). The toxic substances causing poisoning were mainly drugs (63.1%), narcotics (17.9%) and ethanol (17.8%). Poisoning of an intentional nature involved 80 (95.2%) cases, 37 (44%) cases were suicide attempts. In 54 (64.3%) cases, the patient was burdened with a mental illness, the most common being depressive disorders. There were no deaths in the study group.Conclusions: Due to the increasing phenomenon of mental disorders, as well as intentional poisoning among adolescent girls, special emphasis should be placed on psychological care, pedagogical care, of girls in adolescence. This is the time when girls have problems with acceptance of their bodies, with acceptance among peers. Parents and teachers should be made aware of this

Poisoning with methanol and other non-beverage alcohols - an analysis of the issue based on hospitalizations in department of toxicology

Introduction: Poisonings with non-beverage alcohols remain a significant problem in contemporary toxicology. Due to the large quantity and severe course of intoxications with methanol, the authors of this study focused primarily on poisonings with this substance. Methanol is widely used in industry. Its toxicity is attributed to its metabolites - formaldehyde and formic acid. Poisonings with methanol often lead to the patient's death due to a wide range of complications associated with progressive metabolic acidosis. Material and Methods: The study is of a retrospective nature. It involved the analysis of medical records of patients admitted to the department of toxicology in 2022 after the consumption of non-beverage alcohols, with a particular focus on methanol. Data on the number of individuals admitted due to non-beverage alcohol intoxication between 2018 and 2022 was also analyzed. Results: Over the last 5 years (2018-2022), 36 individuals were hospitalized in the Clinical Toxicological-Cardiological Department due to non-beverage alcohol poisoning, with 16 (44.4%) cases involving methanol. In the year 2022, the department admitted 10 individuals aged 18 to 68, and 5 (50%) of them consumed methanol. Among the hospitalized, 90% were male, and 60% came from rural areas. Deliberate intoxications accounted for 70% of the cases. Four hospitalizations (40%) resulted in patient death. All deaths were associated with methanol intoxication. Conclusions: Non-beverage alcohol is often used by people with alcohol dependence syndrome. Among non-beverage alcohols, patients most often reached for methanol. Its consumption is associated with a high mortality rate and should be taken very seriously and treated immediately.&nbsp

Detergents - useful or dangerous. Discussion of the toxic effects of detergents based on studies

Introduction and purpose: Detergents are compounds that constitute the main component of cleaning products. Due to their varied chemical structure, they have different functions and a wide range of applications. The aim of this study is to draw attention to the problem of toxic effects of detergents on the basis of analysis of cases of detergent poisoning by patients of the Toxicology and Cardiology Ward of the Stefan Cardinal Wyszyński Provincial Hospital in Lublin. Material and methods: The study was retrospective in nature. It used an analysis of the medical records of 11707 intoxications in patients between 01.01.2013 and 31.12.2022, from which a group of individuals with a diagnosis of T55 according to the ICD 10 classification "Toxic effects of soaps and detergents" consisting of 36 cases was selected. Results: The study population consisted of 18 (50%) women and 18 (50%) men. The majority- 19 patients (52.78%) were exposed to the toxic effects of detergents accidentally. 10 patients (27.78%) were suicide attempts. Accompanying medical conditions were mostly psychiatric disorders, with alcohol dependence syndrome predominating - 9 cases (25%). The majority - 33 patients (91.67%) intoxified themselves with detergents in the form of liquids and solids by the oral route . Conclusions: Despite their usefulness in households and industry, detergents contribute to adverse health effects in situations of accidental exposure or intentional intake. In order to reduce the number of complications, preventive measures should be implemented - such as storing detergents in less accessible areas, in original boxes with retained labels, and increasing funding for psychological-psychiatric care in a crisis situation

Analysis of poisonings in patients up to 18 years old hospitalized in the Clinical Department of Toxicology and Cardiology in Stefan Wyszyński Regional Specialist Hospital in Lublin in 2022

Introduction and purpose: Poisoning in children and adolescents remain a serious medical, psychological and social problem. The aim of the study was to analyse poisonings in patients up to 18 years old admitted to the Clinical Department of Toxicology and Cardiology in Stefan Wyszyński Regional Specialist Hospital in Lublin in 2022. Material and method: The research was retrospective. Medical records of 120 cases of poisoning in patients up to the age of 18 were analysed. Results: In the studied period 120 patients from 13 to 18 years old were hospitalized due to intoxication,  84 (70%) of them were female and 36 (30%) of them were male.  Majority of  cases came from urban areas (69,2%). The most frequent causes of poisonings were medicaments (55%), drugs (29,2%) and alcohol (28,3%). The intentional intoxications were found in 113 (94,2%) cases, 45 (39,8%) of them were suicide attempt. Mental diseases were found in 71 (59,1%) cases, the most common one was depressive disorder. There were no deaths in the researched group. Conclusions: Because of the relevance of child patients poisoning young people should be provided with psychological care. Female teenagers must get special kind of support. The availability of child psychiatrists and psychologists is still too poor. Prohibition of selling alcohol to minors should be enforced stricly. It seems that acces to OTC drugs is way much too easy for people. There is a necessity of parents’education about children poisoning

Alcohol in minors - a harmless fad or a serious problem?

Introduction and purpose: Alcohol has been known for centuries. In recent years, awareness of the effects of its consumption has been growing and acceptance of the drink has been declining. Despite this, there is an increase in young alcohol consumption and a decrease in the age of alcohol initiation. In this work, the problem of alcohol consumption by minors will be reviewed based on the evaluation of hospitalizations in the Clinical Department of Toxicology and Cardiology of the Stefan Cardinal Wyszynski Regional Hospital in Lublin in 2022. The aim of the study is to draw attention to this important, although often downplayed, problem. Material and method: The study was retrospective in nature. It used an analysis of the records of 120 intoxications in people under the age of 18, from which a group of alcohol-poisoned people was distinguished, consisting of 37 cases. Results: Hospitalization of 7 patients aged 13 to 18 years was reported due to alcohol intoxication. Of these, 22 (59.5%) female and 15 (40.5%) male patients were singled out. Most were urban residents 29 (78.4%). Isolated alcohol intoxication was the cause of 18 hospitalizations(48.6%). The remaining cases were accompanied by drug intoxication 11 hospitalizations (29.7%) and drug intoxication 8 hospitalizations (21.6%). All analyzed intoxications were intentional, of which 9 (24.3%) were suicide attempts. In 14 cases (37.9%), patients were burdened with mental illness, the most common of which was depressive disorders. There were no deaths in the study group. Conclusions: Alcohol should be forbidden and unacceptable in the family and young people's environment. Parents and young people should be made aware of the harmful effects, psychological, social and health consequences of its consumption