14 research outputs found

    Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model

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    Hana Tomaskova,1 Jitka Kuhnova,2 Richard Cimler,1,3 Ondrej Dolezal,1 Kamil Kuca3 1Faculty of Informatics and Management, 2Faculty of Science, 3Center for Basic and Applied Research (CZAV), University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Introduction: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled.Aim: The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation.Methods: For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat.Results: Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million.Conclusion: System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions. Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, population modeling, system dynamics, prediction mode

    PM10 and children's respiratory symptoms and lung function in the PATY study

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    Studies of the impact of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on prevalence of respiratory symptoms and lung function in children have yielded mixed results, partly related to differences in study design, exposure assessment, confounder selection and data analysis.We assembled respiratory health and exposure data for more than 45,000 children from comparable cross-sectional studies in 12 countries. Eleven respiratory symptoms were selected for which comparable questions were asked. Spirometry was performed in about half of the children. Exposure to air pollution was mainly characterized by annual average concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 10 mum (PM10) measured at fixed sites within the study areas.Positive associations were found between the average PM10 concentration and the prevalence of phlegm (Odds Ratio per 10 mug.m(-3) 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.02-1.30), hay fever (1.20 (0.99-1.46)), bronchitis (1.08 (0.98-1.19)), morning cough (1.15 (1.02-1.29)) and nocturnal cough (1.13 (0.98-1.29)). There were no associations with diagnosed asthma and asthma symptoms. PM10 was not associated with lung function across all studies combined.Our study adds to the evidence that long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution, characterized by the concentration of PM10, is associated with increased respiratory symptom

    Parental education and lung function of children in the PATY study

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    Studies of the relationships between low socio-economic status and impaired lung function were conducted mainly in Western European countries and North America. East–West differences remain unexplored. Associations between parental education and lung function were explored using data on 24,010 school-children from eight cross-sectional studies conducted in North America, Western and Eastern Europe. Parental education was defined as low and high using country-specific classifications. Country-specific estimates of effects of low parental education on volume and flow parameters were obtained using linear and logistic regression, controlling for early life and other individual risk factors. Meta-regressions were used for assessment of heterogeneity between country-specific estimates. The association between low parental education and lung function was not consistent across the countries, but showed a more pronounced inverse gradient in the Western countries. The most consistent decrease associated with low parental education was found for peak expiratory flow (PEF), ranging from −2.80 to −1.14%, with statistically significant associations in five out of eight countries. The mean odds ratio for low PEF (<75% of predicted) was 1.34 (95% CI 1.06–1.70) after all adjustments. Although social gradients were attenuated after adjusting for known risk factors, these risk factors could not completely explain the social gradient in lung function
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