Cronyism and Capital Controls: Evidence from Malaysia

The initial impact of the Asian financial crisis in Malaysia reduced the expected value of government subsidies to politically favored firms. Of the estimated $60 billion loss in market value for politically connected firms from July 1997 to August 1998, roughly 9$5 billion gain in market value for Mahathir-connected firms during September 1998, approximately 32% was due to the increase in the value of their connections. The evidence suggests Malaysian capital controls provided a screen behind which favored firms could be supported.

Propping and Tunneling

In countries with weak legal systems, there is a great deal of tunnelling by the entrepreneurs who control publicly traded firms. However, under some conditions entrepreneurs prop up their firms, i.e., they use their private funds to benefit minority shareholders. We provide evidence and a model that explains propping. In particular, we suggest that issuing debt can credibly commit an entrepreneur to propping, even though creditors can never take possession of any underlying collateral. This helps to explain why emerging markets with weak institutions sometimes grow rapidly and why they are also subject to frequent economic and financial crises.

Determinants of Vertical Integration: Finance, Contracts, and Regulation

We study the determinants of vertical integration in a new dataset of over 750,000 firms from 93 countries. Existing evidence suggests the presence of large cross-country differences in the organization of firms, which may be related to differences in financial development, contracting costs or regulation. We find cross-country correlations between vertical integration on the one hand and financial development, contracting costs, and entry barriers on the other that are consistent with these "priors". Nevertheless, we also show that these correlations are almost entirely driven by industrial composition; countries with more limited financial development, higher contracting costs or greater entry barriers are concentrated in industries with a high propensity for vertical integration. Once we control for differences in industrial composition, none of these factors are correlated with average vertical integration. However, we also find a relatively robust differential effect of financial development across industries; countries with less-developed financial markets are significantly more integrated in industries that are more human capital or technology intensive.

Microgripper force feedback integration using piezoresistive cantilever structure

Force feedback is an important feature in most microgripper applications, but it is commonly overlooked. To successfully implement this feature, a cantilever structure has been designed and fabricated to integrate force feedback into a microhand gripper. The piezoresistive properties of doped polysilicon are used to transduce the mechanical stress of an object pressing against the cantilever sensor, resulting in a change in resistance or voltage capable of being monitored with external hardware. The force sensing structure was designed to have a fabrication process compatible with that of the microhand, allowing for their eventual integration. This fabrication process uses both bulk and surface micromachining techniques to create the cantilever structure, a balloon actuator (utilized in the microhand), and the interconnect to interact with both the electrical sensors and the pneumatic actuators. The prototype fabrication successfully defined the majority of the MEMS device with the exception of the final step. The release of the cantilever failed due to underetching of the entire device rather than just the cantilever, which was desired. Recommendations to solve this problem and improve the fabrication process are presented

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues

Once Upon a Time

This paper is a short reflection on exposing myself to a variety of different media, (books, comic books, and television shows), that contains concepts on time travel. With this exposure, I will then attempt to draw my own comic book with time travel in it

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

The Cepheid instability strip and the calibration of the primary distance scale

This study examines the possibility of galaxy-to-galaxy differences in the long-period Cepheid distributions of external galaxies. A simple theoretical framework is created and linear pulsation calculations are performed to model these distributions. The sturdy nature of the Cepheid period-luminosity (P-L) relation is affirmed, but both analytic arguments and the linear model grids point to potential systematic errors reaching up to a few tenths of a magnitude if the Cepheids in the calibrating and target galaxies have different distributions. We also point out some difficulties posed for stellar pulsation and evolution theory by the long-period Cepheids we have studied: the theoretical blue edge seems too hot and/or the inferred masses too large to account for the observed stars. Preliminary observational evidence is presented which marginally indicates the existence of two somewhat different types of distribution of long-period Cepheids in external galaxies, but further data are needed before this can be confirmed