Our Future Southeastern Turkish Frontiers. CEPS Policy Brief No. 6, October 2001

[From the Introduction]. Today’s southeast Turkey has historically been the homeland of a large number of diverse ethnic groups. Nowadays, in many town and villages of the region the largest ethnic group is Kurdish. Turkish officials under Turgut Özal in the 1990s for the first time admitted there may be around 10 million Kurds living in Turkey. Other estimates indicate a Kurdish population of around 15 million. Adding to this figure the additional 10 million or so Kurds living in Iran, Iraq, Syria and the former Soviet Union, the Kurdish people represent the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own

The European Union, Civil Society and Conflict Transformation

The European Union considers conflict resolution as a cardinal objective of its foreign policy. It makes use of a number of policy instruments to promote conflict transformation through ‘constructive engagement’, which cover a range of sectors affecting conditions and incentives at the micro level. The EU has recognised the importance of engaging with civil society in situations of violent conflict, but needs to engage more with local civil society to make its policies more effective. This briefing aims to aid the understanding of the role of civil society organisations in situations of violent conflict, and the potential role of EU policies in enhancing CSOs’ conflict transformation efforts.Civil society, European Union, European Neighbourhood Policy, violent conflict

The European Union, Conflict Transformation and Civil Society: A Conceptual Framework

The European Union considers conflict resolution as a cardinal objective of its foreign policy. It makes use of a number of policy instruments to promote conflict transformation through ‘constructive engagement’, which cover a range of sectors affecting conditions and incentives at the micro level. The EU has recognised the importance of engaging with civil society in situations of violent conflict, but needs to engage more with local civil society to make its policies more effective. This paper provides a conceptual framework and discussion to analyse which local civil society actors play a role in conflict and conflict transformation, through which activities they impact on conflicts and how, what determines their effectiveness, and finally how EU neighbourhood policies can enhance their constructive impact in peacefully transforming conflicts in its near abroad by engaging with civil society.Civil society, European Union, European Neighbourhood Policy, violent conflict, conflict transformation

Conflict Resolution in the European Neighbourhood: The Role of the EU as a Framework and as an Actor

The European Union's neighbourhood is rife with secessionist conflicts. The Union's proximity and its magnetic power of attraction has created the potential for a constructive European involvement in these regions. An EU role can be two-fold. First, the EU framework of governance, law and policy can offer a conducive context for the settlement of ethno-political conflicts. Second, the Union can act in its neighbouring regions to generate incentives for the settlement and ultimate resolution of conflict. But to what extent can the Union export its forms of governance in a manner that can contribute to the amelioration and resolution of conflict? What instead are the mechanisms and their limits through which EU actions or inactions could alter the incentive structure underpinning conflict? This article attempts to shed light on the above questions.Europeanization

Cyprus as the Lighthouse of the East Mediterranean: Shaping EU Accession and Reunification Together. CEPS Paperback. April 2002

For over a quarter of a century, Cyprus has been a divided island, with Europe’s last remaining ‘Berlin Wall’ separating its Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities. This stalemate between the regions, however, is finally beginning to dissolve. Negotiations are currently underway to resolve the Cyprus conflict, re-unify the island and secure the accession of the whole of Cyprus to the EU in the near future. This CEPS report explores the ways in which these developments might come about. The authors argue that simultaneous action could transform the political structures and interests that have up until now made it impossible to resolve the division of the island

Don’t Hold Your Breath (Yet) for a Settlement in Cyprus

After decades of ongoing intercommunal disputes between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, and for the first time since 2004 when a peace process brokered by the UN failed, the leaders of the two communities on the island have re-launched negotiations for a federal solution. In September 2008 direct negotiations were launched in Cyprus. This round in the 44 year-old peace process represents both the last and the best chance to achieve peace on the island. The last chance because since the fateful referendum over the UN-brokered Annan Plan in April 2004, while the peace process stagnated, dynamics on the ground have reduced the likelihood of a federal solution on the island; the best chance because the peace process is led by two moderate leaders, Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat, who have demonstrated their readiness to compromise by starting negotiations over a comprehensive settlement and agreeing on a set of confidence building measures. Yet this does not mean that a federal solution is on the short-term horizon. On the Greek Cypriot side there is still an important source of resistance against a federal power-sharing deal. On the Turkish Cypriot side, enthusiasm for federalism and EU accession in 2008 is far below what it was in 2004. Furthermore, since 2007 political turmoil in Turkey alongside the reluctance of several EU member states to proceed with Turkey’s EU accession process, might constrain the Turkish government’s ability to deliver on Cyprus. Within this context, the role of the EU in generating incentives within a Cypriot-owned and UN-mediated peace process is critical. This would mean closely monitoring the peace process and exerting pressure on all sides, delivering on the promises made to the Turkish Cypriots to lift their state of international isolation and re-energising Turkey’s accession process

Europe and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: where does the EU stand?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is transforming Europe profoundly. Europe has reacted politically, energetically and in terms of enlargement and defence. Unprecedented sanctions, the first ever activation of the temporary protection mechanism for refugees, energy diversification, efficiency and accelerated transition, as well as the revival of enlargement policy, greater defence spending and the development and use of the European Peace Facility, are all ground-breaking developments. Some, like the steps forward made on energy, will make the EU stronger and more resilient than what it was before the war. On other issues, like enlargement, it remains to be seen whether the EU will truly revive its accession policy. On European defence, the challenge is even greater, given that, notwithstanding the significance of the EU’s moves, these are insufficient to reverse the trend of greater dependence on the US, reducing European foreign policy autonomy, first and foremost vis-à-vis China

A Stability Pact for the Caucasus in Theory and Practice - A Supplementary Note. CEPS Working Document No. 152, September 2000

In response to appeals of the leaders of the South Caucasus for a Stability Pact for the region, CEPS published in May 2000 a consultative document with a comprehensive proposal (available on www.ceps.be). Subsequently the authors have held extensive consultations with the leaders in all three states of the South Caucasus, and in four of the key autonomies (Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, Adjaria, Ossetia). The present paper draws together the information and ideas collected during these consultations, although the conclusions are only attributable to the authors. The main argument of the original document is maintained, and strengthened with more precise views on how the conflicts might be solved within the framework of a Stability Pact. However the proposed Stability Pact process could be more than just an approach to conflict resolution. It has systemic or even constitutional aspects, with elements to overcome the transitional problems of the weak state and ease the confrontations of traditional notions such as independence versus territorial integrity, or the choice between federation and confederation, which are part of the present impasse. Particular consideration is also given to how a Caucasus Stability Pact could serve the interests of Russia as the region’s key player, together with enhanced cooperation with the EU over a Southern Dimension concept

The value of creating, framing and storytelling

Once upon a time, academia and practice were joined at the hip, but as years went by, a yawning gap began dividing the two worlds. Today, while occasions of contact between academia and practice exist, they remain mainly ad hoc and superficial. To bridge the gap between academia and practice, many have called for policy relevant scholarship. But this misses the point: academics are and should continue to be academics, much like practitioners are and should continue to be practitioners. It is not up to the academic to come up with detailed policy proposals. They often lack the technical expertise, the bureaucratic experience or political instinct to know the specific what, when and how needed. Yet the academics’ contribution to policy-making can be immense if they continue to be academics: using their unique skill set but with an eye for the concepts, the framing and the story-telling that are so essential to good policy-making

State (un)Sustainability in the Southern Mediterranean and Scenarios to 2030: The EU’s Response. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 1/August 2011(updated April 2012)

This research project is the product of a conviction, corroborated by the events that have overwhelmed the Arab world since December 2010, that sustainability is essential to any understanding of Mediterranean politics. Sustainability has too often been confused with stability in policy debates in the region and in the West. Not only are these two concepts distinct, with sustainability being broader and deeper than stability, but stability, as interpreted with regard to the regimes in the region, has often run counter to the very conditions that underpin state sustainability. Believing and thus pursuing regime stability has ultimately acted to the detriment of a more organic understanding of state sustainability