Response to the Letter to the Editor

This paper has attracted interest around the world from the media (both TV and newspapers). In addition, we have received letters, emails and telephone calls. One of our favorites was a voicemail message asking us to return a call to Australia at which point we would learn who really killed JFK. We welcome the opportunity to respond to the letter to the editor from Mr. Fiorentino. Mr. Fiorentino claims that our ``statement relating to the likelihood of a second assassin based on the premise of three or more separate bullets is demonstrably false.'' In response we would like to simply quote from page 327 of Gerald Posner's book Case Closed, one of the most well known works supporting the single assassin theory: ``If Connally was hit by another bullet, it had to be fired from a second shooter, since the Warren Commission's own reconstructions showed that Oswald could not have operated the bolt and refired in 1.4 seconds.'' Mr. Fiorentino also claims that the ``second fatal flaw is the use of a rather uncomplicated formula based on Bayes Theorem.'' Let $E$ denote the evidence and $T$ denote the theory that there were just two bullets (and hence a single shooter). We used Bayes Theorem to hypothetically calculate $P(T|E)$ from $P(E|T)$ and the prior probability $P(T)$. In order to make $P(T|E)$ ten times more likely than $P(\bar{T}|E)$, the ratio of the prior probabilities [i.e., $P(T) / P(\bar{T})$] would have to be greater than 15. Thus, we again conclude that this casts serious doubt on Dr. Guinn's conclusion that the evidence supported just two bullets. Sadly, this is far from the first time that probability has been misunderstood and/or misapplied in a case of public interest. A notable British example is the Clark case. See Nobles and Schiff (2005) for details. Finally, we welcome and, in fact, encourage members of the scientific community to provide alternative analyses of the data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS154 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Predicted Colors and Flux Densities of Protostars in the Herschel PACS and SPIRE Filters

Upcoming surveys with the Herschel Space Observatory will yield far-IR photometry of large samples of young stellar objects, which will require careful interpretation. We investigate the color and luminosity diagnostics based on Herschel broad-band filters to identify and discern the properties of low-mass protostars. We compute a grid of 2,016 protostars in various physical congurations, present the expected flux densities and flux density ratios for this grid of protostars, and compare Herschel observations of three protostars to the model results. These provide useful constraints on the range of colors and fluxes of protostar in the Herschel filters. We find that Herschel data alone is likely a useful diagnostic of the envelope properties of young starsComment: Part of HOPS KP papers to the Herschel special A&A issu

Comparison of the Quantification of Caffeine in Human Plasma by Gas Chromatography and ELISA

In the present study we evaluated the precision of the ELISA method to quantify caffeine in human plasma and compared the results with those obtained by gas chromatography. A total of 58 samples were analyzed by gas chromatography using a nitrogen-phosphorus detector and routine techniques. For the ELISA test, the samples were diluted to obtain a concentration corresponding to 50% of the absorbance of the standard curve. To determine whether the proximity between the I50 of the standard curve and that of the sample would bring about a more precise result, the samples were divided into three blocks according to the criterion of difference, in modulus, of the I50 of the standard curve and of the I50 of the sample. The samples were classified into three groups. The first was composed of 20 samples with I50 up to 1.5 ng/ml, the second consisted of 21 samples with I50 ranging from 1.51 to 3 ng/ml, and the third of 17 samples with I50 ranging from 3.01 to 13 ng/ml. The determination coefficient (R2 = 0.999) showed that the data obtained by gas chromatography represented a reliable basis. The results obtained by ELISA were also reliable, with an estimated Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.82 between the two methods. This coefficient for the different groups (0.88, 0.79 and 0.49 for groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively) showed greater reliability for the test with dilutions closer to I50

Закономерности формирования спектров и структур собственных электромеханических колебаний

Предлагается решение системы дифференциальных уравнений электромеханических движений в виде гармонической функции. Рассматриваются вопросы определения закономерностей формирования спектров и структур собственных электромеханических колебаний. Исследуются оценки гармонического состава электромеханических колебаний. Обосновывается применение частот собственных колебаний в качестве показателей для оценки удаленности режима от предельного по устойчивости

Resolved Depletion Zones and Spatial Differentiation of N2H+ and N2D+

We present a study on the spatial distribution of N2D+ and N2H+ in thirteen protostellar systems. Eight of thirteen objects observed with the IRAM 30m telescope show relative offsets between the peak N2D+ (J=2-1) and N2H+ (J=1-0) emission. We highlight the case of L1157 using interferometric observations from the Submillimeter Array and Plateau de Bure Interferometer of the N2D+ (J=3-2) and N2H+ (J=1-0) transitions respectively. Depletion of N2D+ in L1157 is clearly observed inside a radius of ~2000 AU (7") and the N2H+ emission is resolved into two peaks at radii of ~1000 AU (3.5"), inside the depletion region of N2D+. Chemical models predict a depletion zone in N2H+ and N2D+ due to destruction of H2D+ at T ~ 20 K and the evaporation of CO off dust grains at the same temperature. However, the abundance offsets of 1000 AU between the two species are not reproduced by chemical models, including a model that follows the infall of the protostellar envelope. The average abundance ratios of N2D+ to N2H+ have been shown to decrease as protostars evolve by Emprechtinger et al., but this is the first time depletion zones of N2D+ have been spatially resolved. We suggest that the difference in depletion zone radii for N2H+ and N2D+ is caused by either the CO evaporation temperature being above 20 K or an H2 ortho-to-para ratio gradient in the inner envelope.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 44 pages 13 Figure

On the nature of the deeply embedded protostar OMC-2 FIR 4

We use mid-infrared to submillimeter data from the Spitzer, Herschel, and APEX telescopes to study the bright sub-mm source OMC-2 FIR 4. We find a point source at 8, 24, and 70 $\mu$m, and a compact, but extended source at 160, 350, and 870 $\mu$m. The peak of the emission from 8 to 70 $\mu$m, attributed to the protostar associated with FIR 4, is displaced relative to the peak of the extended emission; the latter represents the large molecular core the protostar is embedded within. We determine that the protostar has a bolometric luminosity of 37 Lsun, although including more extended emission surrounding the point source raises this value to 86 Lsun. Radiative transfer models of the protostellar system fit the observed SED well and yield a total luminosity of most likely less than 100 Lsun. Our models suggest that the bolometric luminosity of the protostar could be just 12-14 Lsun, while the luminosity of the colder (~ 20 K) extended core could be around 100 Lsun, with a mass of about 27 Msun. Our derived luminosities for the protostar OMC-2 FIR 4 are in direct contradiction with previous claims of a total luminosity of 1000 Lsun (Crimier et al 2009). Furthermore, we find evidence from far-infrared molecular spectra (Kama et al. 2013, Manoj et al. 2013) and 3.6 cm emission (Reipurth et al 1999) that FIR 4 drives an outflow. The final stellar mass the protostar will ultimately achieve is uncertain due to its association with the large reservoir of mass found in the cold core.Comment: Accpeted by ApJ, 17 pages, 11 figure

Testing Magnetic Field Models for the Class 0 Protostar L1527

For the Class 0 protostar, L1527, we compare 131 polarization vectors from SCUPOL/JCMT, SHARP/CSO and TADPOL/CARMA observations with the corresponding model polarization vectors of four ideal-MHD, non-turbulent, cloud core collapse models. These four models differ by their initial magnetic fields before collapse; two initially have aligned fields (strong and weak) and two initially have orthogonal fields (strong and weak) with respect to the rotation axis of the L1527 core. Only the initial weak orthogonal field model produces the observed circumstellar disk within L1527. This is a characteristic of nearly all ideal-MHD, non-turbulent, core collapse models. In this paper we test whether this weak orthogonal model also has the best agreement between its magnetic field structure and that inferred from the polarimetry observations of L1527. We found that this is not the case; based on the polarimetry observations the most favored model of the four is the weak aligned model. However, this model does not produce a circumstellar disk, so our result implies that a non-turbulent, ideal-MHD global collapse model probably does not represent the core collapse that has occurred in L1527. Our study also illustrates the importance of using polarization vectors covering a large area of a cloud core to determine the initial magnetic field orientation before collapse; the inner core magnetic field structure can be highly altered by a collapse and so measurements from this region alone can give unreliable estimates of the initial field configuration before collapse.Comment: 43 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables. Accepted by the Astrophysical Journa