How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. The authors estimate such content horizons for a variety of economic variables, and compare these with the maximum horizons that they observe reported in a large sample of empirical economic forecasting studies. The authors find that many published studies provide forecasts exceeding, often by substantial margins, their estimates of the content horizon for the particular variable and frequency. The authors suggest some simple reporting practices for forecasts that could potentially bring greater transparency to the process of making and interpreting economic forecasts.Econometric and statistical methods, Business fluctuations and cycles

FORECAST CONTENT AND CONTENT HORIZONS FOR SOME IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

For quantities that are approximately stationary, the information content of statistical forecasts tends to decline as the forecast horizon increases, and there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts cannot provide discernibly more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean (the content horizon). The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally-accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we attempt to develop more information of this type by estimating content horizons for variety of macroeconomic quantities; more generally, we characterize the pattern of decay of forecast content as we project farther into the future. We find wide variety of results for the different macroeconomic quantities, with models for some quantities providing useful content several years into the future, for other quantities providing negligible content beyond one or two months or quarters.

Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted in new high-frequency data sources that could potentially provide more accurate and timely information on the current level of economic activity. In this paper we explore the usefulness of electronic transactions as real-time indicators of economic activity, using Canadian debit card data as an example. These data have the advantages of daily availability and the high market penetration of debit cards. We find that (i) household transactions vary greatly according to the day of the week, peaking every Friday and falling every Sunday; (ii) debit card data can help lower consensus forecast errors for GDP and consumption (especially non-durable) growth; (iii) debit card transactions are correlated with Statistics Canada’s revisions to GDP; (iv) high-frequency analyses of transactions around extreme events are possible, and in particular we are able to analyze expenditure patterns around the September 11 terrorist attacks and the August 2003 electrical blackout.Business fluctuations and cycles

Nowcasting GDP with electronic payments data

We assess the usefulness of a large set of electronic payments data comprising debit and credit card transactions, as well as cheques that clear through the banking system, as potential indicators of current GDP growth. These variables capture a broad range of spending activity and are available on a very timely basis, making them suitable current indicators. While every transaction made with these payment mechanisms is in principle observable, the data are aggregated for macroeconomic forecasting. Controlling for the release dates of each of a set of indicators, we generated nowcasts of GDP growth for a given quarter over a span of five months, which is the period over which interest in nowcasts would exist. We find that nowcast errors fall by about 65 per cent between the first and final nowcast. Evidence on the value of the additional payments variables suggests that there may be modest reductions in forecast loss, tending to appear in nowcasts produced at the beginning of a quarter. Among the payments variables considered, debit card transactions appear to produce the greatest improvements in forecast accuracy

Zachorowalność i chorobowość na chłoniaka Hodgkina w Polsce na podstawie analizy danych Narodowego Funduszu Zdrowia z lat 2004–2010

Zachorowalność na chłoniaka Hodgkina w Polsce według danych Krajowego Rejestru Nowotworów wydaje sięmniejsza niż można to prognozować, opierając się na danych amerykańskich według Programu NCI SEER (Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results). Dotychczas nie było możliwości weryfikacji tych danych na podstawie innych źródeł,a chorobowość na chłoniaka Hodgkina w Polsce była w ogóle nieznana.Cel pracy. Określenie zachorowalności i chorobowości na chłoniaka Hodgkina w Polsce na podstawie analizy danychNFZ z lat 2004–2010.Materiał i metoda. Analizie poddano dane dotyczące udzielania świadczeń leczniczych chorym na chłoniakaHodgkina (C81) przesłane do NFZ w latach 2004–2010 dla wybranych — najbardziej istotnych rodzajów świadczeń.Wyniki. W latach 2006–2010 średnia roczna liczba nowych leczonych (miara zachorowalności) dla kobiet wynosiła1131 osób (± 210), a mężczyzn 1210 (± 223), natomiast całkowita roczna liczba leczonych (miara chorobowości)kobiet wynosiła 4555 (± 154), a mężczyzn 4505 (± 221). Rozkład liczby nowych przypadków chłoniaka Hodgkinaw grupach wiekowych dla poszczególnych płci miał charakter dwumodalny. Pierwszy szczyt zachorowań miał miejsceokoło 30–35 roku życia, natomiast drugi rozpoczynał się około 50 roku życia i osiągał wartość maksymalną około70–75 roku życia.Wnioski. Zachorowalność na chłoniaka Hodgkina oceniona na podstawie danych NFZ była większa niż określonaprzez Krajowy Rejestr Nowotworów i zbliżona do danych amerykańskich SERR. Po raz pierwszy określona chorobowośćna chłoniaka Hodgkina w Polsce była około czterokrotnie większa niż zachorowalność, co wskazuje na przewlekłyprzebieg choroby u tych osób (około 20–30%), u których nie została ona wyleczona leczeniem pierwszej linii. Ponadto,jeśli chodzi o wiek chorych, potwierdzono istnienie dwóch szczytów zachorowań w oparciu o inne badaniach

Revisiting the Twentieth Century Through the Lens of Generation X and Digital Games: A Scoping Review

Video games have been around since the 1960s and have impacted upon society in a myriad of different ways. The purpose of this scoping review is to identify existing literature within the domain of video games which recruited participants from the Generation X (1965–1980) cohort. Six databases were searched (ACM, CINHAL Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) focusing on published journal papers between 1970 and 2000. Search results identified 3186 articles guided by the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR); 4 papers were irretrievable, 138 duplicated papers were removed, leaving 3048 were assessed for eligibility and 3026 were excluded. Articles (n = 22) were included into this review, with four papers primarily published in 1997 and in 1999. Thematic analysis identified five primary themes: purpose and objectives, respective authors’ reporting, technology, ethics and environment) and seven secondary themes: populations, type of participants (e.g. children, students), ethical approval, study design, reimbursement, language, type of assessments. This scoping review is distinctive because it primarily focuses on Generation X, who have experienced and grown-up with videogames, and contributes to several disciplines including: game studies, gerontology and health, and has wider implications from a societal, design and development perspective of video games