The Scientific Bases of Sustainability: Methods, Measures and Correlations

Defining and assessing sustainability of complex systems (ecosystems, production systems, territorial systems, etc.) is a crucial challenge for modern science. Several instruments are necessary to answer a lot of questions related to the interactions between man and Nature. Policy makers, businessmen, researchers, managers, environmentalists and common people need information in order to understand what is sustainability and what is the distance of their behaviours from it. Sustainability indicators have been developed with the purpose to answer all these questions.The paper presents the results of the SPIn-Eco project, a sustainability analysis of the Province of Siena (Italy). It has produced a data set that allows a practical comparison among several approaches and indicators by means of correlation analysis. Important correlations were found between Ecological Footprint and CO2 emissions as well as with the non renewable exogenous part of Emergy flow. No correlation was found between total emergy flow and total ecological footprin

Prediction of severe thunderstorm events with ensemble deep learning and radar data

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the most used techniques rely on video prediction deep learning methods which take in input time series of radar reflectivity images to predict the next future sequence of reflectivity images, from which the predicted rainfall quantities are extrapolated. Differently from the previous works, the present paper proposes a deep learning method, exploiting videos of radar reflectivity frames as input and lightning data to realize a warning machine able to sound timely alarms of possible severe thunderstorm events. The problem is recast in a classification one in which the extreme events to be predicted are characterized by a an high level of precipitation and lightning density. From a technical viewpoint, the computational core of this approach is an ensemble learning method based on the recently introduced value-weighted skill scores for both transforming the probabilistic outcomes of the neural network into binary predictions and assessing the forecasting performance. Such value-weighted skill scores are particularly suitable for binary predictions performed over time since they take into account the time evolution of events and predictions paying attention to the value of the prediction for the forecaster. The result of this study is a warning machine validated against weather radar data recorded in the Liguria region, in Italy

The drivers and functions of rock juggling in otters

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: Data and code for rock juggling frequency, hunger and food puzzles can be accessed through the Dryad Digital Repository: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rn8pk0p64. Tables of post hoc test results for puzzle order have been uploaded as part of the electronic supplementary material.Object play refers to the seemingly non-functional manipulation of inanimate items when in a relaxed state. In juveniles, object play may help develop skills to aid survival. However, why adults show object play remains poorly understood. We studied potential drivers and functions of the well-known object play behaviour of rock juggling in Asian small-clawed (Aonyx cinereus) and smooth-coated (Lutrogale perspicillata) otters. These are closely related species, but Asian small-clawed otters perform extractive foraging movements to exploit crabs and shellfish while smooth-coated otters forage on fish. We thus predicted that frequent rock jugglers might be better at solving extractive foraging puzzles in the first species, but not the latter. We also assessed whether species, age, sex and hunger correlated with rock juggling frequency. We found that juvenile and senior otters juggled more than adults. However, rock juggling frequency did not differ between species or sexes. Otters juggled more when ‘hungry’, but frequent jugglers did not solve food puzzles faster. Our results suggest that rock juggling may be a misdirected behaviour when hungry and may facilitate juveniles’ motor development, but it appears unrelated to foraging skills. We suggest future studies to reveal the ontogeny, evolution and welfare implications of this object play behaviour.Royal Societ

Multidisciplinary approach to the study of Tursiops truncatus pregnancy: a crucial value?

Pregnancy in all mammals is characterized by a progression of biological and behavioural factors that lead the animals to reproduce successfully. The relative weight of each factor is still uninvestigated in almost all cetaceans, since the research is generally focused on one or a few aspects. In order to attempt an integrated approach to the study of Tursiops truncatus pregnancy, we report data on three different disciplines \u2013 behaviour (A), physiology (B) and acoustics (C). Ultrasound pregnancy confirmation in two females gave us the opportunity to conduct a simultaneous investigation across the three approaches. A) As for the ethological approach, \u201cIndividual follow continuous sampling\u201d method with specific ethogram was applied to monitor the females\u2019 behavioural repertoire with a total number of 192h of observation. B) Physiological investigation included the examination of respiration rates - 192 sessions lasting 15min each \u2013 and blow samples weekly collection - in order to hopeful point out possible perturbations of stress hormones. C) Acoustic signals were analized twice a month during 1-hour long free-swimming session by means of Br\ufcel & Kj\ue6r Type 8105 hydrophone and Matlab platform. Some locomotory and postural displays together with social preferences revealed specific trends (both in frequency and duration) while approaching parturition also underlined by a significant increase of apnea duration. In like manner, pregnancy seemed affect the acoustic habits of the subjects, slowing down the number of the emitted clicks. Far to provide complete answers, this multidisciplinary approach seems to make available significant information on bottlenose dolphin pregnancy via remote, non invasive sampling. Results obtained from cross analysis help in avoiding false indication of imminent delivery, sometimes coming from singular flexions patterns or from a not-related-to-birth period of withdrawing from association with other animals. Further studies are strongly recommended for the acquisition of multidisciplinary relevant information to manage successful breeding programs