ORGANIC AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

Modelling the impacts of organic production up-scaled to regional and global levels gives an initial quan-tification of the potential extent of changes that large-scale conversion might induce. Optimistic estimates of change with respect to organic yield potential lead to modest impacts on global commodity prices, production, and trade. Conversion in high-input regions in Europe and North America to certified organic decreases production and increases commodity prices. Hunger in this scenario slightly worsens. Transition of low-input areas in Sub-Saharan Africa to non-certified organic leads to in-creased production and decreased prices. Food secu-rity improves slightly in this scenario. The switch for low-input regions helps decrease trade dependency in some commodities. Achievement of productivity levels in these scenarios is dependent on many factors that introduce a significant amount of uncertainty in the results. The extent of these impacts can be improved if concerted effort in research and development for yield and productivity enhancement is supported

Integrated economic modeling of global and regional micronutrient security:

In this paper, we examine the implications of alternative country-specific scenarios for biofortification on the reduction of micronutrient deficiency prevalence in under-fives. The scenarios are implemented within a long-term projections model of agriculture production and consumption, given the timeframe needed to develop and implement biofortification of crops and the need to account for changing diets over time. The effectiveness of the various biofortification strategies is largely determined by the evolution of regional dietary patterns over time, which show continued reliance on staple food crops among the poor. It suggests that cereal grain-focused biofortification is likely to be most effective in South Asia, while targeting roots and tubers is most effective in Sub-Saharan Africa.Biofortification, Micronutrients, Economic models,

Green Revolution Counterfactuals

In this paper, we conduct two "counterfactual" simulations for the 30-year period 1970-2000-the first holding 1970 crop genetic improvements (CGI) constant and the second presuming the International Agricultural Research Center (IARC) system had not been built. Both these counterfactuals apply to developing countries only. The core estimates on which the counterfactuals are based include country fixed effects , and the key estimates are for the Dietary Energy Sufficiency (DES) equation. DES affects birth rates, death rates, child mortality rates and malnutrition rates, making it possible to "endogenize" population growth in developing countries, in the counterfactuals. Reduced DES levels (from reduced CGI contributions) will lead to more births, more deaths and more child deaths and higher levels of malnutrition. The key technology variables that determine DES are the number of agricultural scientists per million hectares of cropland, the average years of schooling of adult males (over 25), and the level of Green Revolution Modern Varieties (GRMV) adoption. Our results show striking contrasts between the historical record and the alternative counterfactuals. The worst outcome is that without any Green Revolution Technologies or an IARC system to support it, which results in holding technological advancements constant at the 1970 level is a marginal improvement, leading to much higher prices over time, as agricultural production struggles to keep up with food demand in those countries. The endogenous feedback effects of population show the importance of nutrition and education, and argue strongly in favor of those factors playing a significant role in the improvement of human well-being that has been observed since the start of the Green Revolution to present.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Biofuels and Rural Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

Biofuel expansion is seen as a way to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, as an alternative energy source for transportation and other uses, as a way to reduce Green House Gases, and as way to revitalize the agricultural sector. Very little discussions have been focused on Latin America, except for Brazil. Potential negative impacts re-enforce the need of performing more in depth analysis of the potential impact of biofuels expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Paper estimates biofuels production potential based on current production situation and develops a forward-looking analysis of the long-term impact of biofuels expansion in Latin America and its effects on prices, trade, food security, malnutrition and other indicators using the IMPACT-WATER model developed by IFPRI. The analysis conducted for this paper of potential crops in the region show that from a technical and productivity standpoint in which to base biofuels expansion continues to be sugarcane and palm oil trees. Most countries in Latin America will not have a production constraint in terms of meeting existing and projected mandatory blends requirements. However, if the goal is to obtain energy independence, this result only holds for a few countries, with obvious food security implications as countries dedicate higher shares of their agricultural land to biofuels expansion. Our analysis, and those made in other studies, show that biofuels expansion is not likely to have a binding land production constraint in Latin America, with a few exceptions. The forward-looking estimations from the IMPACT-WATER model show that Brazil will continue to be the major player in the ethanol market. Brazil will expand its ethanol exports to meet growing demand in other countries including some in Latin America. Other countries such as Argentina and Colombia will likely continue their biofuels expansion plans, although our estimate show that they will not likely meet their demand based on current production potential. The IMPACT-WATER simulations also show that biofuels impacts on food security and malnutrition will likely happen in those countries where the feedstock used for biofuels production is a critical component of a major share of the population, other things equal. An example of this potential is Mexico and most of the Central America region, where a high proportion of the diet is composed of maize. The extent to which biofuels efforts can contribute towards addressing or affecting all broader contextual issues depend on a series of strategic determinants of impact success, ranging from the characteristics of installed capacity and industrial organization and coordination to whether any nascent market for biofuels will be economically sustainable and financially viable without continuous government support or interventions.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:

Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8�C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.Climate change, Economy, Impact model, national CGE model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling,

Facing alternative futures: prospects for and paths to food security in Africa

"Food security in Africa has substantially worsened since 1970. Although the proportion of malnourished individuals in Sub-Saharan Africa has remained in the range of 33–35 percent since around 1970, the absolute number of malnourished people in Africa has increased substantially with population growth, from around 88 million in 1970 to an estimate of over 200 million in 1999–2001. Yet this discouraging trend need not be a blueprint for the future. New research from IFPRI shows that the policy and investment choices of African policymakers and the international development community can make an enormous difference for Africa's future agricultural production and food security. By modeling the results of a number of different policy scenarios in Africa through the year 2025, we show that the number of malnourished children, one important indicator of food security, could rise as high as 41.9 million or fall as low as 9.4 million. These scenarios, therefore, shed light on the effectiveness of various policies and investments in assuring a food-secure future for Africa.' from TextFood insecurity, Forecasting, Agricultural productivity, Human capital, Malnutrition in children, Impact model,

Green and blue water accounting in the Limpopo and Nile Basins: Implications for food and agricultural policy

Green water, Blue water, Irrigation, Rainfed, Agriculture, technology, Investment, Impact, Climate change, Water resources,

Looking ahead: long-term prospects for Africa's agricultural development and food security

"Sub-Saharan Africa is the only developing region in the world where food insecurity has worsened instead of improved in recent decades. In this discussion paper, Mark W. Rosegrant, Sarah A. Cline, Weibo Li, Timothy B. Sulser, and Rowena A. Valmonte-Santos show that this discouraging trend need not be a blueprint for the future. The research contained in this discussion paper was conducted in preparation for the IFPRI 2020 Africa conference “Assuring Food and Nutrition Security in Africa by 2020: Prioritizing Actions, Strengthening Actors, and Facilitating Partnerships,” held in Kampala, Uganda, April 1–3, 2004. The authors examine the implications of several different policy scenarios based on IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This model, developed at IFPRI in the early 1990s, has been continually updated to incorporate more food sectors and geographic regions. In this paper, the authors use IMPACT to assess the consequences of a wide range of policy and investment choices for Africa, including a business as usual scenario (continuation of current policy and investment trends through 2025), a pessimistic scenario (declining trends in key investments and in agricultural productivity), and a vision scenario (improving trends in investments and hence in agricultural productivity and human capital), as well as scenarios for more effective use of rainfall in agriculture, reduced marketing margins, and three different scenarios for trade liberalization. The wide variation in results reveals how much these choices will matter. For example, the number of malnourished children under five years old in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 is projected to be 38.3 million under business as usual, 55.1 million under the pessimistic scenario, and 9.4 million under the vision scenario. It is our hope that this research will clarify the steps needed to help stimulate the actions contributing to approaching the vision scenario. " From Foreword by Joachim von BraunImpact model, Food insecurity, Forecasting, Agricultural productivity, Human capital, Malnutrition in children,

Conjecturing Production, Imports and Consumption of Horticulture in Indonesia in 2050: a GAMS Simulation Through Changes in Yields Induced by Climate Change

IndonesianPetunjuk Perubahan iklim yang cepat saat ini telah diamati dan dibukukan secara meluas. Semua Perubahan ini secara pasti akan menyebabkan kemerosotan jumlah dan mutu lahan, air, dan iklim mikro di tempat di pertumbuhan tanaman hortikultura. Selanjutnya, dapat diprakirakan produktivitas lahan dan hortikultura akan menurun. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pengaruh yang dipicu Perubahan ini pada produksi, impor, dan konsumsi produk hortikultura. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model keseimbangan parsial pasar-jamak dalam kerangka simulasi. Semua hasil-hasil simulasi IFPRI memprakirakan bahwa produktivitas kelompok buah (pisang dan jeruk) dan sayuran (cabai dan bawang merah) meningkat dibandingkan keadaan baseline. Demikian pula, apabila perbandingan dilakukan terhadap hasil skenario tidak terjadi Perubahan iklim (NoCC), kesimpulan yang berbeda akan diperoleh. Pada tahun 2050, model ini memberikan petunjuk yang berlainan dengan hasil literatur dan hipotesis yang menyatakan bahwa produksi, impor, dan konsumsi terhadap hortikultura akan menurun. Sebaliknya model mengantisipasi bahwa produksi pisang, jeruk, cabai, dan bawang akan meningkat di perdesaan Jawa dan Luar-Jawa. Namun, hasil-hasil ini harus ditafsirkan secara hati-hati berhubung kesulitan penarikan kesimpulan atas pengaruh Perubahan iklim terhadap komoditas hortikultura yang berlaku secara umum, karena komoditas hortikultura jumlahnya beribu-ribu dengan sifat masing-masing yang khas. Untuk itu kajian dan penelitian yang intensif dan menyeluruh sangat diperlukan karena Perubahan iklim bukanlah fenomena jangka pendek seumur tanaman, tetapi bersifat jangka panjang. Dalam kaitannya dengan indikator perdagangan, simulasi memberikan hasil yang sama bahwa impor pisang, jeruk, cabai, dan bawang akan meningkat, tetapi impor kedua komoditas terakhir tidak besar. Skenario CSIRO_A1b, CSIRO_B1, dan MIROC_A1b memproyeksikan konsumsi nasional agregat pisang, jeruk, cabai, dan bawang akan menurun dengan Perubahan iklim, tetapi meningkat menurut Skenario MIROC_B1 . Namun, terlihat ada perbedaan konsumsi komoditas-komoditas ini antarwilayah. Konsumsi rumah tangga di Jawa menurun pada 2050, penurunan ini akan sangat terasa pada keluarga miskin di Jawa. Sementara itu, konsumsi semua kelompok rumah tangga di Luar Jawa meningkat, kecuali menurut Skenario MIROC_A1b dan Skenario CSIRO_B1, di mana konsumsi keluarga miskin di Luar Jawa menurun. Makalah menyarankan agar penelitian perakitan kultivar yang dapat menyesuaikan diri dan tahan kekeringan dan juga teknik-teknik penghematan air yang sesuai untuk tanaman hortikultura atau penggunaan air secara efisien perlu ditingkatkan. Teknologi-teknologi semacam ini sangat dibutuhkan saat ini. Cara-cara penyebarluasan atau pengkomunikasian kultivar-kultivar dan teknologi-teknologi di atas ke pihak petani kecil juga perlu digali lagi agar mereka dapat memanfaatkannya. EnglishIndication of Earth's changing climate with rapid pace currently present time has been observed and extensively documented. All these changes will undoubtedly lead to deterioration in quantity and quality of land, water, and micro-climate where the horticultural crops are grown. Subsequently, it can be anticipated that land and horticultural productivity will be depreciated. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of this induced change in these horticultural crops on the production, imports, and consumption of these crops. This study adapts a multimarket model of partial equilibrium analysis to a simulation framework. All scenarios adopted by the IFPRI study predict that the yields of fruit crop group (bananas and oranges) and vegetables (Chilies and shallots) would increase compared to the baseline scenarios. But by making comparison to no climate change (NoCC) scenario after simulating it from the baseline, mixed conclusions are obtained. For 2050, the model anticipates increases in the production of bananas, oranges, shallot, and Chilies by rural households in Java and Off-Java. These findings have to be interpreted cautiously, because it is extremely difficult to make a general conclusion about the impact of climate change on horticulture for the fact that horticulture consists of thousands of crops, of which each of them has unique characteristics. More intensive and comprehensive studies are still required because climate change is not a short-term phenomenon of crop-cycle. In regard to net trade indicators, this study foresees that bananas, oranges, Chilies and onions imports would grow but the rate of growth of Chilies' and onions' imports are not significant. National consumption of bananas, oranges, Chilies and shallot are projected to fall under Scenarios CSIRO_B1 and MIROC_A1b but it increases under Scenario MIROC_B1. However, there would be disparities in consumption of bananas, oranges, Chilies and shallot among regions. Java households will experience decreases in consumption in 2050, whereas Java–poor households would suffer the most. On the other hand almost all types of Off-Java households will enjoy a positive rate of consumption changes, with the exception being the results of Scenario MIROC_A1b and Scenario CSIRO_B1 for Off-Java–poor households, which indicate a decrease in consumption. This paper recommends that more researches on assembling cultivars adaptable or tolerable to drought as well as appropriate technologies to conserve water for horticultural crops and to use the limited amount of water efficiently are in high demand today. Best means to disseminate or communicate these cultivars and technologies to smallholding horticultural-farmers ought to be explored

The future of diets and hunger in South East Asia under climate change and alternative investment scenarios

Despite enjoying strong economic growth in the last few decades, Southeast Asia still faces challenges to food security, with high levels of stunting across countries in the region. Agricultural production is likely to see large impacts from climate change, including sea-level rise, droughts, and floods. The climate threat compounds pressures onto the food systems coming from the rapid demographic and income trends. Population across the region may grow by 25% between 2010 and 2050, and average income per capita may see a fourfold increase in the same period. In absence of climate impacts, growth in agricultural productivity is estimated to bring about an increase in production of over 50% between 2020 and 2050, with positive effects on the availability of kilocalories, and increased consumption of animal products. However, the projected climate impacts are expected to hit most of the crops in the region, especially cereals. Per capita income in 2050 may be negatively affected compared to a scenario without climate shocks. The resulting decrease in total calories availability translates into an increase in population at risk of hunger across the region and by country. We show that enhanced investments in public international agricultural R&D have the potential to improve yields despite the long-term negative effects of climate shocks, and when combined with increased research efficiency they may even offset climate impacts on food security across the region