Recommended metric for tracking visibility progress in the Regional Haze Rule

<p>For many national parks and wilderness areas with special air quality protections (Class I areas) in the western United States (U.S.), wildfire smoke and dust events can have a large impact on visibility. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 1999 Regional Haze Rule used the 20% haziest days to track visibility changes over time even if they are dominated by smoke or dust. Visibility on the 20% haziest days has remained constant or degraded over the last 16 yr at some Class I areas despite widespread emission reductions from anthropogenic sources. To better track visibility changes specifically associated with anthropogenic pollution sources rather than natural sources, the EPA has revised the Regional Haze Rule to track visibility on the 20% most anthropogenically impaired (hereafter, most impaired) days rather than the haziest days. To support the implementation of this revised requirement, the EPA has proposed (but not finalized) a recommended metric for characterizing the anthropogenic and natural portions of the daily extinction budget at each site. This metric selects the 20% most impaired days based on these portions using a “delta deciview” approach to quantify the deciview scale impact of anthropogenic light extinction. Using this metric, sulfate and nitrate make up the majority of the anthropogenic extinction in 2015 on these days, with natural extinction largely made up of organic carbon mass in the eastern U.S. and a combination of organic carbon mass, dust components, and sea salt in the western U.S. For sites in the western U.S., the seasonality of days selected as the 20% most impaired is different than the seasonality of the 20% haziest days, with many more winter and spring days selected. Applying this new metric to the 2000–2015 period across sites representing Class I areas results in substantial changes in the calculated visibility trend for the northern Rockies and southwest U.S., but little change for the eastern U.S.</p> <p><i>Implications</i>: Changing the approach for tracking visibility in the Regional Haze Rule allows the EPA, states, and the public to track visibility on days when reductions in anthropogenic emissions have the greatest potential to improve the view. The calculations involved with the recommended metric can be incorporated into the routine IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) data processing, enabling rapid analysis of current and future visibility trends. Natural visibility conditions are important in the calculations for the recommended metric, necessitating the need for additional analysis and potential refinement of their values.</p

Examining PM2.5 concentrations and exposure using multiple models.

Epidemiologic studies have found associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and adverse health effects using exposure models that incorporate monitoring data and other relevant information. Here, we use nine PM2.5 concentration models (i.e., exposure models) that span a wide range of methods to investigate i) PM2.5 concentrations in 2011, ii) potential changes in PM2.5 concentrations between 2011 and 2028 due to on-the-books regulations, and iii) PM2.5 exposure for the U.S. population and four racial/ethnic groups. The exposure models included two geophysical chemical transport models (CTMs), two interpolation methods, a satellite-derived aerosol optical depth-based method, a Bayesian statistical regression model, and three data-rich machine learning methods. We focused on annual predictions that were regridded to 12-km resolution over the conterminous U.S., but also considered 1-km predictions in sensitivity analyses. The exposure models predicted broadly consistent PM2.5 concentrations, with relatively high concentrations on average over the eastern U.S. and greater variability in the western U.S. However, differences in national concentration distributions (median standard deviation: 1.00&nbsp;μg m-3) and spatial distributions over urban areas were evident. Further exploration of these differences and their implications for specific applications would be valuable. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated to decrease by about 1&nbsp;μg m-3 on average due to modeled emission changes between 2011 and 2028, with decreases of more than 3&nbsp;μg m-3 in areas with relatively high 2011 concentrations that were projected to experience relatively large emission reductions. Agreement among models was closer for population-weighted than uniformly weighted averages across the domain. About 50% of the population was estimated to experience PM2.5 concentrations less than 10&nbsp;μg m-3 in 2011 and PM2.5 improvements of about 2&nbsp;μg m-3 due to modeled emission changes between 2011 and 2028. Two inequality metrics were used to characterize differences in exposure among the four racial/ethnic groups. The metrics generally yielded consistent information and suggest that the modeled emission reductions between 2011 and 2028 would reduce absolute exposure inequality on average

Characterizing CO and NO y Sources and Relative Ambient Ratios in the Baltimore Area Using Ambient Measurements and Source Attribution Modeling.

Modeled source attribution information from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model was coupled with ambient data from the 2011 Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality Baltimore field study. We assess source contributions and evaluate the utility of using aircraft measured CO and NO y relationships to constrain emission inventories. We derive ambient and modeled ΔCO:ΔNO y ratios that have previously been interpreted to represent CO:NO y ratios in emissions from local sources. Modeled and measured ΔCO:ΔNO y are similar; however, measured ΔCO:ΔNO y has much more daily variability than modeled values. Sector-based tagging shows that regional transport, on-road gasoline vehicles, and nonroad equipment are the major contributors to modeled CO mixing ratios in the Baltimore area. In addition to those sources, on-road diesel vehicles, soil emissions, and power plants also contribute substantially to modeled NO y in the area. The sector mix is important because emitted CO:NO x ratios vary by several orders of magnitude among the emission sources. The model-predicted gasoline/diesel split remains constant across all measurement locations in this study. Comparison of ΔCO:ΔNO y to emitted CO:NO y is challenged by ambient and modeled evidence that free tropospheric entrainment, and atmospheric processing elevates ambient ΔCO:ΔNO y above emitted ratios. Specifically, modeled ΔCO:ΔNO y from tagged mobile source emissions is enhanced 5-50% above the emitted ratios at times and locations of aircraft measurements. We also find a correlation between ambient formaldehyde concentrations and measured ΔCO:ΔNO y suggesting that secondary CO formation plays a role in these elevated ratios. This analysis suggests that ambient urban daytime ΔCO:ΔNO y values are not reflective of emitted ratios from individual sources