Lines in the Sand on the Australian Political Beach

Spatial models of voting behaviour are the dominant paradigm in political science. Consistent with this approach, it will be the case that, ceteris paribus, voters should vote for the party nearest to them on the political spectrum. A key question is how we measure nearness or distance. We investigate this issue by estimating discrete choice models for voting outcomes using the 2001 Australian Election Study survey data. The evidence supports the proposition that it is perceived and not actual distance that performs best. Our findings also suggest that where a voter locates on the political spectrum is almost as good a predictor of their voting outcome as how close they are to the partiesSpatial Competition, Distance Measures, Discrete Choice

Off with their heads: Terrorism and electoral support for capital punishment in Australia

Recent terrorist attacks such as the attacks on the World Trade Centre in September 2001 have generated new interest in the debate on capital punishment. It has been suggested that support for the death penalty could be higher in the wake of terrorist activity. Using data from the Australian Election Study we investigate voters' attitudes towards capital punishment. Paradoxically, overall support for the death penalty at the 2001 Federal election was lower than at previous elections. In this paper we utilise both simultaneous binary probit and treatment effects models to model the determinants of those attitudes and to investigate the impact of terrorism on support for the death penalty at the 2001 Federal election. In particular, we address the question of whether voters who felt terrorism was an important issue had higher levels of support for the death penalty than voters who did not feel that terrorism was importantsimultaneous binary probit, treatment effects models

Using Local Agroecological Knowledge in Climate Change Adaptation: A Study of Tree-Based Options in Northern Morocco

Communities in northern Morocco are vulnerable to increasing water scarcity and food insecurity. Context specific adaptation options thus need to be identified to sustain livelihoods and agroecosystems in this region, and increase the resilience of vulnerable smallholders, and their farming systems, to undesired effects of social-ecological change. This study took a knowledge-based systems approach to explore whether and how tree-based (i.e., agroforestry) options could contribute to meeting these adaptation needs. We analysed local agroecological knowledge of smallholders from the M\ue8 knes–Tafilalet region, to (i) characterise existing farming systems at local landscape scale; (ii) identify possible niches for farm-trees within these systems; and (iii) explore locally perceived barriers to tree-based diversification. An iterative cycle of qualitative interviews, with a purposefully selected sample of 32 farmers, revealed that socio-economic constraints and agroecological conditions in the area differed markedly along a relatively short altitudinal gradient. Agroforestry practices were already integral to all farming systems. Yet, many were at risk of degradation, as water scarcity, low profitability of production systems and uncontrolled grazing constituted critical barriers to the maintenance and diversification of farm-trees. We demonstrate the discriminatory power of local knowledge, to characterise farming conditions at the local landscape scale; and unveil adoption barriers and options for tree-based diversification in northern Morocco

Local Knowledge about Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Coffee Agroforestry Practices in Northwest Vietnam

In recent decades in northwest Vietnam, Arabica coffee has been grown on sloping land in intensive, full sun monocultures that are not sustainable in the long term and have negative environmental impacts. There is an urgent need to reverse this negative trend by promoting good agricultural practices, including agroforestry, to prevent further deforestation and soil erosion on slopes. A survey of 124 farmers from three indigenous groups was conducted in northwest Vietnam to document coffee agroforestry practices and the ecosystem services associated with different tree species used in them. Trees were ranked according to the main ecosystem services and disservices considered to be locally relevant by rural communities. Our results show that tree species richness in agroforestry plots was much higher for coffee compared to non-coffee plots, including those with annual crops and tree plantations. Most farmers were aware of the benefits of trees for soil improvement, shelter (from wind and frost), and the provision of shade and mulch. In contrast, farmers had limited knowledge of the impact of trees on coffee quality and other interactions amongst trees and coffee. Farmers ranked the leguminous tree species Leucaena leucocephala as the best for incorporating in coffee plots because of the services it provides to coffee. Nonetheless, the farmers’ selection of tree species to combine with coffee was highly influenced by economic benefits provided, especially by intercropped fruit trees, which was influenced by market access, determined by the proximity of farms to a main road. The findings from this research will help local extension institutions and farmers select appropriate tree species that suit the local context and that match household needs and constraints, thereby facilitating the transition to a more sustainable and climate-smart coffee production practice

Local knowledge of the impacts of eucalyptus expansion on water security in the Ethiopian highlands

Lack of long-term hydrological monitoring makes it difficult to determine impacts of changing land use on the water dynamics for many catchments in Africa. Here we use local ecological knowledge (LEK) to explore the impacts of rapid expansion of eucalyptus agroforestry on water security in the Ethiopian highlands. Local knowledge about the impacts of changes in tree cover was collected from farmers (n = 30), extension staff (n = 2) and timber merchants (n = 2) in five kebeles within the Jeldu woreda. Jeldu has undergone significant land use change over the last forty years. The area was heavily deforested 20 years ago and farmers associate this time with a major change in the water dynamics. Recently the development of a new road to Goja, the main town, opened up the area as a source of timber for Addis Ababa. This has resulted in a substantial expansion of eucalyptus plots adjacent to roads on the upper plateau and in riparian areas where growth is accelerated. Poorer farmers have been displaced on to the sloping land (which used to be woodland) where there is now evidence of rapid soil degradation. The key findings were that farmers identified significant trade-offs at the plot scale between eucalyptus and adjacent crop fields. They also identified indicators suggesting the sudden increase in eucalyptus cover had accelerated declines in water availability at landscape scales. The study showed the value of using LEK for exploring immediate landscape scale dynamics in the absence of hydrological monitoring. Whilst there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding the impacts of eucalyptus, this research demonstrated local awareness associated of problems associated with unregulated expansion of eucalyptus woodlots on the water regulating capacity at immediate landscape scales in the Ethiopian highlands