Incorporating weather information into real-time speed estimates: comparison of alternative models

Weather information is frequently requested by travelers. Prior literature indicates that inclement weather is one of the most important factors contributing to traffic congestion and crashes. In this paper, we propose a methodology to use real-time weather information to predict future speeds. The reason for doing so is to ultimately have the capability to disseminate weather-responsive travel time estimates to those requesting information. Using a stratified sampling technique, we select cases with different weather conditions (precipitation levels) and use a linear regression model (called the base model) and a statistical learning model (using Support Vector Machines for Regression) to predict 30-minute ahead speeds. One of the major inputs into a weather-responsive short-term speed prediction method is weather forecasts; however, weather forecasts may themselves be inaccurate. We assess the effects of such inaccuracies by means of simulations. The predictive accuracy of the SVR models show that statistical learning methods may be useful in bringing together streaming forecasted weather data and real-time information on downstream traffic conditions to enable travelers to make informed choices

Generalized Fractional Calculus Operators Involving the Product Of the Jacobi Type Orthogonal Polynomials And Multivariable Polynomials

The objective of this paper is to establish four theorems for the Marichev-Saigo-Maeda fractional integration and differentiation formula to the product of the finite classes of the classical orthogonal polynomials with the general class of multivariable polynomials. The results are presented in terms of the Wright generalized hypergeometric function. Corresponding assertions in terms of Saigo, Erdelyi-Kober and Riemann-Liouville type of fractional integrals are also presented. Further, we point out also their relevance

Performance of coffee marketing co-operatives and members’ satisfaction in Dale District: SNNPRS-Southern Ethiopia

People form cooperatives to do something better than they could do individually or through a non-cooperative form of business. Forming a cooperative will not automatically solve business problems faced by individual households. This is because of cooperatives are subject to the same economic forces, legal restrictions and international relations that other business face. Cooperative members’ expectations about the types and quality of services that should be offered and their criteria for performance of these services have a major impact on the level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction felt. Members’ satisfaction on the benefits obtained by establishing cooperatives should be evaluated by the level of the deviation of service expectation from perceived service performance. Thus, cooperatives performance should be continuously checked against the level of members’ satisfaction. This study therefore, aims at assessing the performance of primary coffee marketing cooperatives and thereby to identify factors that impede members’ satisfaction. To evaluate the performance of coffee marketing cooperatives in the study area, financial ratios was computed based on annual audit reports of the cooperatives. Here, efficiency ratios, income ratios and creditworthiness ratios were calculated as performance indicators. As a result, almost all the coffee marketing cooperatives in the study area were performing their business inefficiently. Probit regression model was also employed to identify factors influencing the members’ satisfaction taking the overall cooperatives performance, the adequacy and context of services rendered by the cooperatives, and the major services as function of socio-economic and institutional explanatory variables. The model analysis revealed that, age, family size, terms of payment for red cherry and dry cherry were found to be statistically significant at significance level of 5%, 5% 1% and 5% respectively to influence negatively except the terms of payment for dry cherry which was influenced positively, the satisfaction of members’ of the coffee marketing cooperatives in the study area, with reference to the overall performance of the cooperatives as dependent variable

Predictors of Treatment Seeking Intention among People with Cough in East Wollega, Ethiopia Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior: A Community Based Cross -Sectional Study

Background: Early treatment seeking for cough is crucial in the prevention and control of Tuberculosis. This study was intended to assess treatment seeking intention of people with cough of more than two weeks, and to identify its predictors.Methods: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted among 763 individuals with cough of more than two weeks in East Wollega Zone from March 10 to April 16, 2011. Study participants were selected from eighteen villages by cluster sampling method. Data collection instruments were developed according to the standard guideline of the theory of planned behavior. The data were analyzed with SPSS 16.0. Multiple linear regression was used to identify predictors.Results: Mean score of intention was found to be 12.6 (SD=2.8) (range of possible score=3-15). Knowledge (β=0.14, 95%CI: 0.07-0.2), direct attitude (β=0.31, 95%CI: 0.25-0.35), belief-based attitude (β=0.03, 95%CI: 0.02-0.06) and perceived subjective norm (β=0.22, 95%CI: 0.13 -0.31) positively predicted treatment seeking intention. However, perceived behavioral control and control belief were not significantly associated with treatment seeking intention (p>0.05). Being smoker (β=-0.97, 95%CI:-1.65- (-0.37)) and higher family income (β=-0.06, 95%CI:-0.07-(-0.01) were significantly associated with lower treatment seeking intention.Conclusion: TPB significantly predicted treatment seeking intention among the study participants. Attitude and silent beliefs held by the respondents play an important role and should be given emphasize in prevention and control of Tuberculosis.Keywords: Tuberculosis, Cough, Intention, Treatment, Theory of Planned Behavio

Experience of Initial Symptoms of Breast Cancer and Triggers for Action in Ethiopia

Objective. This study assessed the initial experiences, symptoms, and actions of patients in Ethiopia ultimately determined to have breast cancer. Methods. 69 participants in a comprehensive breast cancer treatment program at the main national cancer hospital in Ethiopia were interviewed using mixed qualitative and quantitative approaches. Participants' narratives of their initial cancer experience were coded and analyzed for themes around their symptoms, time to seeking advice, triggers for action, and contextual factors. The assessment was approved by the Addis Ababa University Faculty of Medicine Institutional Review Board. Results. Nearly all women first noticed lumps, though few sought medical advice within the first year (average time to action: 1.5 years). Eventually, changes in their symptoms motivated most participants to seek advice. Most participants did not think the initial lump would be cancer, nor was a lump of any particular concern until symptoms changed. Conclusion. Given the frequency with which lumps are the first symptom noticed, raising awareness among participants that lumps should trigger medical consultation could contribute significantly to more rapid medical advice-seeking among women in Ethiopia. Primary care sites should be trained and equipped to offer evaluation of lumps so that women can be referred appropriately for assessment if needed