Measuring and forecasting fertility

Prognosing of fertility has been one of the most important tasks in demography and population statistics. The fertility trends have changed and have a different character in different parts of the world. The very last tendency discovered by M. Myrskylä and others about ten years ago is positive dependency on the human development index. Here the validity of this hypothesis in Europe is proved using the recent data of fertility and HDI

Eesti rahvastik 2011. aasta loenduse andmetel

Rahvaloenduse esmaste tulemuste taustal saab käsitleda Eestis viimase 22 aasta jooksul (alates 1989. aasta rahvaloendusest) toimunud rahvastikuprotsesse. Selle aja jooksul on Eesti rahvaarv kahanenud 17% võrra. Selle põhjused on aktiivne mitte-eestlaste väljaränne iseseisvuse taastamise eel (selle tulemusena kasvas eestlaste osakaal rahvastikus 61,5%-lt 79,7%-ni), negatiivne iive ja jätkuvalt negatiivne rändesaldo. Viimase kümnendi jooksul on rahvastiku demograafilises arengus toimunud olulisi positiivseid nihkeid: oodatav eluiga on kasvanud viimase 11 aasta jooksul üle 5 aasta, loomulik iive on lähenenud nullile ja imikusuremus langenud alla Euroopa Liidu keskmist taset. Eesti Arst 2013; 92(3):139–14

Vaesus ja selle mõõtmine. Vaesuse suundumused Eestis

Vaesus on oluline sotsiaalne probleem kogu maailmas, sealhulgas ka arenenud riikides. Eestis on vaesusprobleemile tähelepanu pööratud ning seda mõõdetud viimase kümnendi jooksul. Käesoleva analüütilise ülevaate esimeses osas tutvustatakse suhtelise vaesuse, absoluutse vaesuse ja elatusmiinimumi mõisteid ning näidatakse, kuidas tarbimiskaalude valik mõjutab erinevate leibkonnatüüpide vaesuse näitajaid. Eesti Arst 2006; 85 (10): 654–66

RESIDENCY TESTING. ESTIMATING THE TRUE POPULATION SIZE OF ESTONIA

The number of residents or population size is important for all countries. Nowadays in many countries a series of registers have been created, which can be used for assessing the population size. The residency index is a tool created for estimating the under- and over-coverage of population census and calculation of proper population size. For this aim the concept of a sign of life – a binary variable depending on register i, person j and year k has been introduced showing if the person was active in the register in a given year. The weighted sum of signs of life indicates the probability that the person belongs to the set of residents in a given year. To improve the stability of the index a linear combination of the previous value of the index and the sum of signs of life is used. Necessary parameters were estimated using empirical data

Health of Estonian population by objective and subjective statistics

Many studies concerning the health problems of the population have been conducted in Estonia during the last decades. In the population census of 2011, several questions about health conditions were also asked. Summarizing the subjective and objective data, it turns out that the general health situation of the Estonian population is steadily improving. During the last decade, the life expectancy of Estonian men and women has increased by approximately five years. Statistical data also show that education is strongly correlated with the health situation: people with a higher level of education have, in general, fewer health problems. The people living in rural areas have somewhat more health-caused limitations in their everyday life – the reason for this situation seems to be deficiencies in communication and conveniences.The general health situation of a population is a very important indicator. It should be taken into account when planning social policy but also in calculating the resources of workforce in the country or estimating the costs needed for retirement allowances. The number of medical personnel also depends on the estimated health of the population, as this knowledge also works as an input for education policy

Creation and revitalization of the Estonian National Register of anthropometric data

Anthropmetric data have always been of interest for scientists. They have also great practical value for different groups of people: tailors, designers and also health care specialists. Anthropological data are different in different geographical areas and also change in time. That is why it is important to save also results of older anthropometrical measurements. In Estonia the anthropometrical measurements have been made by different researchers since the 18th century. The Group of Physical Anthropology at the University of Tartu (initiated by prof Helje Kaarma) was especially active in gathering anthropometric data. The data were saved in the Anthropometic Register. Unfortunately, the register had no financial support and so its activities stopped. In summer 2016 the group of people interested in saving the historical anthropometric data started revitalising the Register of Anthropological Data. Hopefully, it will be possible to use the Estonian Social Science Data Archive for this purpose

Factors affecting reproductive behaviour in Estonia in the 21st century

In Estonia where the population size is quite small (less than a million ethnic Estonians) the low birth rate has been a problem throughout known history. In Estonia as in other Eastern European countries, the so-called transition shock appeared in the 1990s after regaining independence. As a result of the shock, the birth rate fell sharply; the number of births in 1994–2000 was twice less than the number of births ten years earlier, in 1984–1990. Intensive migration also lasted for about 25 years, and, as a result, the population of Estonia decreased by more than for 250 000 people (one sixth of the population). The ethnic structure of the population of Estonia also changed. Depending on the direction and volume of foreign migration, the share of ethnic Estonians in the population, which was 61.5% in 1991, increased to 67.9% by the turn of the century. Postponing of births has been an important trend throughout the world, including in Estonia, in recent decades. In Estonia the average age of mothers who gave birth increased from 1991 to 2021 by almost 6 years. This means that, for 30 years, nearly a fifth of children were not born each year. The total fertility rate depends on the change in the average childbearing age. When the childbearing age increases (which has been happening in Estonia during the last 30 years), the total fertility rate (TFR) underestimates the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. Although TFR is relatively low in Estonia now, oscillating between 1.5 and 1.7, this does not mean that the average number of children born by a woman is so low. If a cohort of women (e.g., women born 45–49 years ago) has passed the fertile age, it is possible to determine the average number of children whom they actually gave birth during their lifetime. This indicator gives a much more optimistic picture about the fertility behaviour of Estonian women than TFR. Ethnic Estonian women are more active in giving birth than the women of other ethnic origins. On average, Estonian women aged 40+ have given birth to 2 children

Changes of life expectancy in Estonia during the last 70 years

The life expectation characterises the health conditions, especially mortality of a population at the year of calculation. The changes of life expectancy in time characterise the general health trends of a population. The difference between men’s and women’s life expectation in Estonia is large, about 9 years, but the difference of remaining lifetime lessens with age. Life expectancy of both men and women has increased quite rapidly during the last decades, also infant mortality has reached the value typical for highly developed countries (40 times lower level than 70 years ago). International forecasts show that Estonians’ life expectancy will approach to that of Finns by the end of 21st century

Fellow traveller’s look at Helje Kaarma’s creative life

Fellow traveller’s look at Helje Kaarma’s creative lif

Changes in children’s and adolescents’ mortality in Estonia during the last century

The problem of infant mortality arose in the discussion on risks connected with new-borns’ vaccination. When we compare infant mortality about ninety years ago and nowadays, then it is easy to see that children’s mortality has decreased enormously. But this process has not been uniform during the whole 90-year period: we can see the sub-periods of rapid progress and also sub-periods of stagnation. Obviously, some social and political factors have an impact here, but the mechanism of this influence is not clear