Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years

A systematic review of the incidence of schizophrenia: the distribution of rates and the influence of sex, urbanicity, migrant status and methodology

BACKGROUND: Understanding variations in the incidence of schizophrenia is a crucial step in unravelling the aetiology of this group of disorders. The aims of this review are to systematically identify studies related to the incidence of schizophrenia, to describe the key features of these studies, and to explore the distribution of rates derived from these studies. METHODS: Studies with original data related to the incidence of schizophrenia (published 1965–2001) were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations and writing to authors. These studies were divided into core studies, migrant studies, cohort studies and studies based on Other Special Groups. Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete rates. Cumulative plots of these rates were made and these distributions were compared when the underlying rates were sorted according to sex, urbanicity, migrant status and various methodological features. RESULTS: We identified 100 core studies, 24 migrant studies, 23 cohort studies and 14 studies based on Other Special Groups. These studies, which were drawn from 33 countries, generated a total of 1,458 rates. Based on discrete core data for persons (55 studies and 170 rates), the distribution of rates was asymmetric and had a median value (10%–90% quantile) of 15.2 (7.7–43.0) per 100,000. The distribution of rates was significantly higher in males compared to females; the male/female rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 1.40 (0.9–2.4). Those studies conducted in urban versus mixed urban-rural catchment areas generated significantly higher rate distributions. The distribution of rates in migrants was significantly higher compared to native-born; the migrant/native-born rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 4.6 (1.0–12.8). Apart from the finding that older studies reported higher rates, other study features were not associated with significantly different rate distributions (e.g. overall quality, methods related to case finding, diagnostic confirmation and criteria, the use of age-standardization and age range). CONCLUSIONS: There is a wealth of data available on the incidence of schizophrenia. The width and skew of the rate distribution, and the significant impact of sex, urbanicity and migrant status on these distributions, indicate substantial variations in the incidence of schizophrenia

The Propagation of Blast Pulses through Dampened Granular Media

The propagation of stress through granular and dampened granular material has been reported previously, the addition of significant amounts of liquid in granular beds causes the mechanism of transmission of blast from one of percolation through the bed pores to one of stress transmission through the granules of the bed. It has been shown, however, that limited amounts liquid can retard propagation within blast-loaded beds by approximately an order of magnitude. This paper presents data on percolation through dampened granular beds using a shock tube as the pressure driver. The effect of particle shape and size was investigated using angular grains of quartz sand as well as smooth glass microspheres. The effect of addition of small amounts of liquids is presented

A systematic study towards evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of currently predominant H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Vietnam

This study aimed to elucidate virus, host and environmental dynamics of Vietnamese H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) during 2014-2017. Epidemiologically, H5 HPAIVs were frequently detected in apparently healthy domestic and Muscovy ducks and therefore these are preferred species for H5 HPAIV detection in active surveillance. Virologically, clade 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIVs were predominant and exhibited distinct phylogeographic evolution. Clade 2.3.2.1c viruses clustered phylogenetically in North, Central and South regions, whilst clade 2.3.4.4 viruses only detected in North and Central regions formed small groups. These viruses underwent diverse reassortment with existence of at least 12 genotypes and retained typical avian-specific motifs. These H5 HPAIVs exhibited large antigenic distance from progenitor viruses and commercial vaccines currently used in poultry. Bayesian phylodynamic analysis inferred that clade 2.3.2.1c viruses detected during 2014-2017 were likely descended from homologous clade viruses imported to Vietnam previously and/or preexisting Chinese viruses during 2012-2013. Vietnamese clade 2.3.4.4 viruses closely shared genetic traits with contemporary foreign spillovers, suggesting that there existed multiple transboundary virus dispersals to Vietnam. This study provides insights into the evolution of Vietnamese H5 HPAIVs and highlights the necessity of strengthening control measures such as, preventive surveillance and poultry vaccination

Novel Recombinant Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Circulating in Vietnam.

We report the genome sequences of 12 recombinant foot-and-mouth disease virus isolates from Vietnam. The recombinant strain has a capsid region from an A/Sea-97 strain and a nonstructural segment from an O/ME-SA/PanAsia strain. The isolates were obtained from two outbreak samples collected in June 2017 and 10 subclinical samples collected between 2017 and 2019

Big Data: Unleashing information

At present, it is projected that about 4 zettabytes (or 10**21 bytes) of digital data are being generated per year by everything from underground physics experiments to retail transactions to security cameras to global positioning systems. In the U. S., major research programs are being funded to deal with big data in all five sectors (i.e., services, manufacturing, construction, agriculture and mining) of the economy. Big Data is a term applied to data sets whose size is beyond the ability of available tools to undertake their acquisition, access, analytics and/or application in a reasonable amount of time. Whereas Tien (2003) forewarned about the data rich, information poor (DRIP) problems that have been pervasive since the advent of large-scale data collections or warehouses, the DRIP conundrum has been somewhat mitigated by the Big Data approach which has unleashed information in a manner that can support informed — yet, not necessarily defensible or valid — decisions or choices. Thus, by somewhat overcoming data quality issues with data quantity, data access restrictions with on-demand cloud computing, causative analysis with correlative data analytics, and model-driven with evidence-driven applications, appropriate actions can be undertaken with the obtained information. New acquisition, access, analytics and application technologies are being developed to further Big Data as it is being employed to help resolve the 14 grand challenges (identified by the National Academy of Engineering in 2008), underpin the 10 breakthrough technologies (compiled by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2013) and support the Third Industrial Revolution of mass customization

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)--associated tuberculous meningitis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal time to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of immediate versus deferred ART in patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis to determine whether immediate ART reduced the risk of death. Antiretroviral drugs (zidovudine, lamivudine, and efavirenz) were started either at study entry or 2 months after randomization. All patients were treated with standard antituberculosis treatment, adjunctive dexamethasone, and prophylactic co-trimoxazole and were followed up for 12 months. We conducted intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and prespecified subgroup analyses. RESULTS: A total of 253 patients were randomized, 127 in the immediate ART group and 126 in the deferred ART group; 76 and 70 patients died within 9 months in the immediate and deferred ART groups, respectively. Immediate ART was not significantly associated with 9-month mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], .81-1.55; P = .50) or the time to new AIDS events or death (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, .87-1.55; P = .31). The percentage of patients with severe (grade 3 or 4) adverse events was high in both arms (90% in the immediate ART group and 89% in the deferred ART group; P = .84), but there were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm (102 in the immediate ART group vs 87 in the deferred ART group; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Immediate ART initiation does not improve outcome in patients presenting with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. There were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm, supporting delayed initiation of ART in HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN63659091