Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years

The Propagation of Blast Pulses through Dampened Granular Media

The propagation of stress through granular and dampened granular material has been reported previously, the addition of significant amounts of liquid in granular beds causes the mechanism of transmission of blast from one of percolation through the bed pores to one of stress transmission through the granules of the bed. It has been shown, however, that limited amounts liquid can retard propagation within blast-loaded beds by approximately an order of magnitude. This paper presents data on percolation through dampened granular beds using a shock tube as the pressure driver. The effect of particle shape and size was investigated using angular grains of quartz sand as well as smooth glass microspheres. The effect of addition of small amounts of liquids is presented

Big Data: Unleashing information

At present, it is projected that about 4 zettabytes (or 10**21 bytes) of digital data are being generated per year by everything from underground physics experiments to retail transactions to security cameras to global positioning systems. In the U. S., major research programs are being funded to deal with big data in all five sectors (i.e., services, manufacturing, construction, agriculture and mining) of the economy. Big Data is a term applied to data sets whose size is beyond the ability of available tools to undertake their acquisition, access, analytics and/or application in a reasonable amount of time. Whereas Tien (2003) forewarned about the data rich, information poor (DRIP) problems that have been pervasive since the advent of large-scale data collections or warehouses, the DRIP conundrum has been somewhat mitigated by the Big Data approach which has unleashed information in a manner that can support informed — yet, not necessarily defensible or valid — decisions or choices. Thus, by somewhat overcoming data quality issues with data quantity, data access restrictions with on-demand cloud computing, causative analysis with correlative data analytics, and model-driven with evidence-driven applications, appropriate actions can be undertaken with the obtained information. New acquisition, access, analytics and application technologies are being developed to further Big Data as it is being employed to help resolve the 14 grand challenges (identified by the National Academy of Engineering in 2008), underpin the 10 breakthrough technologies (compiled by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2013) and support the Third Industrial Revolution of mass customization

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)--associated tuberculous meningitis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal time to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of immediate versus deferred ART in patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis to determine whether immediate ART reduced the risk of death. Antiretroviral drugs (zidovudine, lamivudine, and efavirenz) were started either at study entry or 2 months after randomization. All patients were treated with standard antituberculosis treatment, adjunctive dexamethasone, and prophylactic co-trimoxazole and were followed up for 12 months. We conducted intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and prespecified subgroup analyses. RESULTS: A total of 253 patients were randomized, 127 in the immediate ART group and 126 in the deferred ART group; 76 and 70 patients died within 9 months in the immediate and deferred ART groups, respectively. Immediate ART was not significantly associated with 9-month mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], .81-1.55; P = .50) or the time to new AIDS events or death (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, .87-1.55; P = .31). The percentage of patients with severe (grade 3 or 4) adverse events was high in both arms (90% in the immediate ART group and 89% in the deferred ART group; P = .84), but there were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm (102 in the immediate ART group vs 87 in the deferred ART group; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Immediate ART initiation does not improve outcome in patients presenting with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. There were significantly more grade 4 adverse events in the immediate ART arm, supporting delayed initiation of ART in HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN63659091

Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients by microscopic observation drug susceptibility assay.

The microscopic observation drug susceptibility assay (MODS) is a novel and promising test for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). We evaluated the MODS assay for the early diagnosis of TB in HIV-positive patients presenting to Pham Ngoc Thach Hospital for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in southern Vietnam. A total of 738 consecutive sputum samples collected from 307 HIV-positive individuals suspected of TB were tested by smear, MODS, and the mycobacteria growth indicator tube method (MGIT). The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of MODS compared to the microbiological gold standard (either smear or MGIT) were 87 and 93%, respectively. The sensitivities of smear, MODS, and MGIT were 57, 71, and 75%, respectively, against clinical gold standard (MODS versus smear, P<0.001; MODS versus MGIT, P=0.03). The clinical gold standard was defined as patients who had a clinical examination and treatment consistent with TB, with or without microbiological confirmation. For the diagnosis of smear-negative patients, the sensitivities of MODS and MGIT were 38 and 45%, respectively (P=0.08). The median times to detection using MODS and MGIT were 8 and 11 days, respectively, and they were 11 and 17 days, respectively, for smear-negative samples. The original bacterial/fungal contamination rate of MODS was 1.1%, while it was 2.6% for MGIT. The cross-contamination rate of MODS was 4.7%. In conclusion, MODS is a sensitive, specific, and rapid test that is appropriate for the detection of HIV-associated TB; its cost and ease of use make it particularly useful in resource-limited settings