Assessing anti-rabies baiting – what happens on the ground?

BACKGROUND: Rabies is one of the most hazardous zoonoses in the world. Oral mass vaccination has developed into the most effective management method to control fox rabies. The future need to control the disease in large countries (i.e. Eastern Europe and the Americas) forces cost-benefit discussions. The 'Increase bait density' option refers to the usual management assumption that more baits per km(2 )could compensate for high fox abundance and override the imperfect supply of bait pieces to the individual fox. METHODS: We use a spatial simulation, which combines explicitly fox space use (tessellation polygons) and aeroplane flight lines (straight lines). The number of baits actually falling into each polygon is measured. The manager's strategic options are converted into changes of the resulting bait distribution on the ground. The comparison enables the rating of the options with respect to the management aim (i.e. accessibility of baits). RESULTS: Above 5% (approx. 10%) of all fox groups without any bait (at most 5 baits) relate to the baiting strategy applied in the field (1 km spaced parallel flight lines, 20 baits per km(2 )distributed) under habitat conditions comparable to middle and western Europe (fox group home-range 1 km(2), 2.5 adults; reference strategy). Increasing the bait density on the same flight-line pattern neither reduces the number of under-baited fox group home-ranges, nor improves the management outcome and hence wastes resources. However, reducing the flight line distance provides a more even bait distribution and thus compensates for missed fox groups or extra high fox density. The reference strategy's bait density can be reduced when accounting for the missed fox groups. The management result with the proper strategy is likely the same but with reduced costs. CONCLUSION: There is no overall optimal strategy for the bait distribution in large areas. For major parts of the landscape, the reference strategy will be more competitive. In situations where set backs are attributed to non-homogeneous bait accessibility the distribution scheme has to be refined zone-based (i.e. increase of the flight line length per unit area). However, increase in bait density above the reference strategy appears inappropriate at least for non-urban abundance conditions of the red fox

Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources – combating or containing?

BACKGROUND: Rabies is the most important viral zoonosis from a global perspective. Worldwide efforts to combat the disease by oral vaccination of reservoirs have managed to eradicate wildlife rabies in large areas of central Europe and North-America. Thus, repeated vaccination has been discontinued recently on a geographical scale. However, as rabies has not yet been eradicated globally, a serious risk of re-introduction remains. What is the best spatial design for an emergency vaccination program – particularly if resources are limited? Either, we treat a circular area around the detected case and run the risk of infected hosts leaving the limited control area, because a sufficient immunisation level has not yet been built up. Or, initially concentrate the SAME resources in order to establish a protective ring which is more distant from the infected local area, and which then holds out against the challenge of the approaching epidemic. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to contrast the two strategies for emergency vaccination. The spatial-explicit model is based on fox group home-ranges, which facilitates the simulation of rabies spread to larger areas relevant to management. We used individual-based fox groups to follow up the effects of vaccination in a detailed manner. Thus, regionally – bait distribution orientates itself to standard schemes of oral immunisation programs and locally – baits are assigned to individual foxes. RESULTS: Surprisingly, putting the controlled area ring-like around the outbreak does not outperform the circular area of the same size centred on the outbreak. Only during the very first baitings, does the ring area result in fewer breakouts. But then as rabies is eliminated within the circle area, the respective ring area fails, due to the non-controlled inner part. We attempt to take advantage of the initially fewer breakouts beyond the ring when applying a mixed strategy. Therefore, after a certain number of baitings, the area under control was increased for both strategies towards the same larger circular area. The circle-circle strategy still outperforms the ring-circle strategy and analysis of the spatial-temporal disease spread reveals why: improving control efficacy by means of a mixed strategy is impossible in the field, due to the build-up time of population immunity. CONCLUSION: For practical emergency management of a new outbreak of rabies, the ring-like application of oral vaccination is not a favourable strategy at all. Even if initial resources are substantially low and there is a serious risk of rabies cases outside the limited control area, our results suggest circular application instead of ring vaccination

Resilience trinity: safeguarding ecosystem functioning and services across three different time horizons and decision contexts

Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi‐faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time‐horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer‐term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority

Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals

To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed that spread of ASFV is dependent on the infectiousness of subclinical animals and the residues of dead animals, the transmission rate of the virus and importantly the unit size. Moreover, increasing the duration of the latent or the subclinical stages resulted in longer time to disease fade out. The proposed model is a simple and robust tool simulating the spread of ASFV within a pig house taking into account dynamics of ASFV spread and the unit size. The tool can be implemented in simulation models of ASFV spread between herds

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429):infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR)

Abstract Infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of IBR to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of IBR according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to IBR. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, IBR can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria in Sections 4 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (d) and (e) of Article 9(1). The assessment here performed on compliance with the criteria as in Section 3 of Annex IV referred to in point (c) of Article 9(1) is inconclusive. The animal species to be listed for IBR according to Article 8(3) criteria belong to the order Artiodactyla

Efficiency of spatio-temporal vaccination regimes in wildlife populations under different viral constraints

Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is considered an endemic disease in European wild boar populations. In view of the high economic impact of the introduction of the virus into domestic pig units, huge efforts are invested in the preventive control of CSF in wild boar populations. Recent European Community guidelines favour oral mass vaccination against CSF in wild boar populations. The guidelines are explicit on the temporal structure of the vaccination protocol, but little is known about the efficacy of different spatial application schemes, or how they relate to outbreak dynamics