Advanced localization of massive black hole coalescences with LISA

The coalescence of massive black holes is one of the primary sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA. Measurements of the GWs can localize the source on the sky to an ellipse with a major axis of a few tens of arcminutes to a few degrees, depending on source redshift, and a minor axis which is 2--4 times smaller. The distance (and thus an approximate redshift) can be determined to better than a per cent for the closest sources we consider, although weak lensing degrades this performance. It will be of great interest to search this three-dimensional `pixel' for an electromagnetic counterpart to the GW event. The presence of a counterpart allows unique studies which combine electromagnetic and GW information, especially if the counterpart is found prior to final merger of the holes. To understand the feasibility of early counterpart detection, we calculate the evolution of the GW pixel with time. We find that the greatest improvement in pixel size occurs in the final day before merger, when spin precession effects are maximal. The source can be localized to within 10 square degrees as early as a month before merger at $z = 1$; for higher redshifts, this accuracy is only possible in the last few days.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, version published in Classical and Quantum Gravity (special issue for proceedings of 7th International LISA Symposium

Massive Black Hole Binary Inspirals: Results from the LISA Parameter Estimation Taskforce

The LISA Parameter Estimation (LISAPE) Taskforce was formed in September 2007 to provide the LISA Project with vetted codes, source distribution models, and results related to parameter estimation. The Taskforce's goal is to be able to quickly calculate the impact of any mission design changes on LISA's science capabilities, based on reasonable estimates of the distribution of astrophysical sources in the universe. This paper describes our Taskforce's work on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs). Given present uncertainties in the formation history of MBHBs, we adopt four different population models, based on (i) whether the initial black-hole seeds are small or large, and (ii) whether accretion is efficient or inefficient at spinning up the holes. We compare four largely independent codes for calculating LISA's parameter-estimation capabilities. All codes are based on the Fisher-matrix approximation, but in the past they used somewhat different signal models, source parametrizations and noise curves. We show that once these differences are removed, the four codes give results in extremely close agreement with each other. Using a code that includes both spin precession and higher harmonics in the gravitational-wave signal, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations and determine the number of events that can be detected and accurately localized in our four population models.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables, minor changes to match version to be published in the proceedings of the 7th LISA Symposium. For more information see the Taskforce's wiki at http://www.tapir.caltech.edu/dokuwiki/lisape:hom