Model predictive load–frequency control taking into account imbalance uncertainty

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is investigated for load frequency control (LFC) of an interconnected power system which is exposed to increasing wind power penetration. The robustified NMPC (RNMPC) proposed here uses knowledge of the estimated worst-case deviation in wind-power production to make the NMPC more robust. The NMPC is based on a simplified system model that is updated using state- and parameter estimation by Kalman filters, and it takes into account limitations on among others tie-line power flow. Tests on a proxy of the Nordic power system show that the RNMPC is able to fulfill system constraints under worst-case deviations in wind-power production, where the nominal NMPC is not

Chemical and physical properties of bulk aerosols within four sectors observed during TRACE-P

Chemical and physical aerosol data collected on the DC-8 during TRACE-P were grouped into four sectors based on back trajectories. The four sectors represent long-range transport from the west (WSW), regional circulation over the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (SE Asia), polluted transport from northern Asia with substantial sea salt at low altitudes (NNW) and a substantial amount of dust (Channel). WSW has generally low mixing ratios at both middle and high altitudes, with the bulk of the aerosol mass due to non-sea-salt water-soluble inorganic species. Low altitude SE Asia also has low mean mixing ratios in general, with the majority of the aerosol mass comprised of non-sea-salts, however, soot is also relatively important in this region. NNW had the highest mean sea salt mixing ratios, with the aerosol mass at low altitudes (\u3c2 km) evenly divided between sea salts, non-sea-salts, and dust. The highest mean mixing ratios of water-soluble ions and soot were observed at the lowest altitudes (\u3c2 km) in the Channel sector. The bulk of the aerosol mass exported from Asia emanates from Channel at both low and midaltitudes, due to the prevalence of dust compared to other sectors. Number densities show enhanced fine particles for Channel and NNW, while their volume distributions are enhanced due to sea salt and dust. Low-altitude Channel exhibits the highest condensation nuclei (CN) number densities along with enhanced scattering coefficients, compared to the other sectors. At midaltitudes (2–7 km), low mean CN number densities coupled with a high proportion of nonvolatile particles (≥65%) observed in polluted sectors (Channel and NNW) are attributed to wet scavenging which removes hygroscopic CN particles. Low single scatter albedo in SE Asia reflects enhanced soot

The impact of local sources and long-range transport on aerosol properties over the northeast U.S. region during INTEX-NA

We use data collected aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the summer 2004, Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Evolution Experiment over North America (INTEX-NA) field campaign to examine the origin, composition, physical and optical properties of aerosols within air masses sampled over and downwind of the northeastern U.S. We note that aerosol concentrations within the region exhibited steep vertical gradients and significant variability in both time and space. An examination of air mass chemical signatures and backward trajectories indicates that transport from four, significantly different source regions contributed to the variability: the subtropical Atlantic Ocean (AO); the U.S. west coast and eastern Pacific (WCP); the U.S. east coast and Midwestern states (EC); and northwest Canada and Alaska (CA). AO air masses were typically confined to below 2 km altitude, exhibited low pollutant contents, contained enhanced levels of sea salt, and were typically observed when the Bermuda High strengthened. The most common air mass present in the upper troposphere, WCP air often contained weak dust and aged pollution enhances from convective input occurring over the central part of the continent. CA air exhibited enhancements in anthropogenic pollution tracers below 2 km and contained some black-carbon rich haze layers between 3 and 5 km that could be traced to forest fires burning in western Canada and Alaska. EC air was prevalent at lower elevations throughout the study area and exhibited enhanced scattering along with elevated levels of sulfate aerosols and combustion tracers. There is an overall balance between the observed cations and anions for all cases, except EC air mass below 4 km

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results

Brown carbon aerosol in the North American continental troposphere: sources, abundance, and radiative forcing

Chemical components of organic aerosol (OA) selectively absorb light at short wavelengths. In this study, the prevalence, sources, and optical importance of this so called brown carbon (BrC) aerosol component are investigated throughout the North American continental tropospheric column during a summer of extensive biomass burning. Spectrophotometric absorption measurements on extracts of bulk aerosol samples collected from an aircraft over the central USA were analyzed to directly quantify BrC abundance. BrC was found to be prevalent throughout the 1 to 12 km altitude measurement range, with dramatic enhancements in biomass-burning plumes. BrC to black carbon (BC) ratios, under background tropospheric conditions, increased with altitude, consistent with a corresponding increase in the absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) determined from a three-wavelength particle soot absorption photometer (PSAP). The sum of inferred BC absorption and measured BrC absorption at 365 nm was within 3 % of the measured PSAP absorption for background conditions and 22 % for biomass burning. A radiative transfer model showed that BrC absorption reduced top-of atmosphere (TOA) aerosol forcing by ∼ 20 % in the background troposphere. Extensive radiative model simulations applying this study background tropospheric conditions provided a look-up chart for determining radiative forcing efficiencies of BrC as a function of a surface-measured BrC : BC ratio and single scattering albedo (SSA). The chart is a first attempt to provide a tool for better assessment of brown carbon’s forcing effect when one is limited to only surface data. These results indicate that BrC is an important contributor to direct aerosol radiative forcing

Observational evidence for the convective transport of dust over the central United States

Bulk aerosol composition and aerosol size distributions measured aboard the DC-8 aircraft during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment mission in May/June 2012 were used to investigate the transport of mineral dust through nine storms encountered over Colorado and Oklahoma. Measurements made at low altitudes (\u3c5 km mean sea level (MSL)) in the storm inflow region were compared to those made in cirrus anvils (altitude \u3e 9 km MSL). Storm mean outflow Ca2+ mass concentrations and total coarse (1 µm \u3c diameter \u3c 5 µm) aerosol volume (Vc) were comparable to mean inflow values as demonstrated by average outflow/inflow ratios greater than 0.5. A positive relationship between Ca2+, Vc, ice water content, and large (diameter \u3e 50 µm) ice particle number concentrations was not evident; thus, the influence of ice shatter on these measurements was assumed small. Mean inflow aerosol number concentrations calculated over a diameter range (0.5 µm \u3c diameter \u3c 5.0 µm) relevant for proxy ice nuclei (NPIN) were ~15–300 times higher than ice particle concentrations for all storms. Ratios of predicted interstitial NPIN (calculated as the difference between inflow NPIN and ice particle concentrations) and inflow NPIN were consistent with those calculated for Ca2+ and Vc and indicated that on average less than 10% of the ingested NPIN were activated as ice nuclei during anvil formation. Deep convection may therefore represent an efficient transport mechanism for dust to the upper troposphere where these particles can function as ice nuclei cirrus forming in situ

Laboratory and modeling studies on the effects of water and soot emissions and ambient conditions on the properties of contrail ice particles in the jet regime

Contrails and contrail-induced cirrus clouds are identified as the most uncertain components in determining aviation impacts on global climate change. Parameters affecting contrail ice particle formation immediately after the engine exit plane (< 5 s in plume age) may be critical to ice particle properties used in large-scale models predicting contrail radiative forcing. Despite this, detailed understanding of these parametric effects is still limited. In this paper, we present results from recent laboratory and modeling studies conducted to investigate the effects of water and soot emissions and ambient conditions on near-field formation of contrail ice particles and ice particle properties. The Particle Aerosol Laboratory (PAL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center and the Aerodyne microphysical parcel model for contrail ice particle formation were employed. Our studies show that exhaust water concentration has a significant impact on contrail ice particle formation and properties. When soot particles were introduced, ice particle formation was observed only when exhaust water concentration was above a critical level. When no soot or sulfuric acid was introduced, no ice particle formation was observed, suggesting that ice particle formation from homogeneous nucleation followed by homogeneous freezing of liquid water was unfavorable. Soot particles were found to compete for water vapor condensation, and higher soot concentrations emitted into the chamber resulted in smaller ice particles being formed. Chamber conditions corresponding to higher cruising altitudes were found to favor ice particle formation. The microphysical model captures trends of particle extinction measurements well, but discrepancies between the model and the optical particle counter measurements exist as the model predicts narrower ice particle size distributions and ice particle sizes nearly a factor of two larger than measured. These discrepancies are likely due to particle loss and scatter during the experimental sampling process and the lack of treatment of turbulent mixing in the model. Our combined experimental and modeling work demonstrates that formation of contrail ice particles can be reproduced in the NASA PAL facility, and the parametric understanding of the ice particle properties from the model and experiments can potentially be used in large-scale models to provide better estimates of the impact of aviation contrails on climate change

Design of an Agile Unmanned Combat Vehicle - A Product of the DARPA UGCV Program

The unmanned ground combat vehicle (UGCV) design evolved by the SAIC team on the DARPA UGCV Program is summarized in this paper. This UGCV design provides exceptional performance against all of the program metrics and incorporates key attributes essential for high performance robotic combat vehicles. This performance includes protection against 7.62 mm threats, C130 and CH47 transportability, and the ability to accept several relevant weapons payloads, as well as advanced sensors and perception algorithms evolving from the PerceptOR program. The UGCV design incorporates a combination of technologies and design features, carefully selected through detailed trade studies, which provide optimum performance against mobility, payload, and endurance goals without sacrificing transportability, survivability, or life cycle cost. The design was optimized to maximize performance against all Category I metrics. In each case, the performance of this design was validated with detailed simulations, indicating that the vehicle exceeded the Category I metrics. Mobility metrics were analyzed using high fidelity VisualNastran vehicle models, which incorporate the suspension control algorithms and controller cycles times. DADS/Easy 5 3-D models and ADAMS simulations were also used to validate vehicle dynamics and control algorithms during obstacle negotiation

Experiences of initiating rapid antiretroviral therapy among people newly diagnosed with HIV in East London: a qualitative study

Data availability statement: Data are available on reasonable request. Data are available on reasonable request and with all potentially identifiable individual data removed.Supplementary Data: This web only file has been produced by the BMJ Publishing Group from an electronic file supplied by the author(s) and has not been edited for content. Data Supplement 1: https://sti.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/172063/field_highwire_adjunct_files/0/sextrans-2022-055682supp001_data_supplement.pdf ; Data Supplement 2: https://sti.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/172063/field_highwire_adjunct_files/1/sextrans-2022-055682supp002_data_supplement.pdf .Copyright © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023 Objectives: We aimed to explore the experiences of people who initiated rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 7 days of HIV diagnosis, as part of routine care in London. Methods: Using purposive sampling, 18 in-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted between December 2020 and September 2021 with people who started rapid ART at Barts Health NHS Trust. Participants aged 22–69 years included 15 cisgender men and three cisgender women. Five identified as heterosexual and 13 as gay and bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Ethnic identities: six White Non-UK, five White UK, three Black Caribbean, two South Asian and two East Asian. Interviews explored feelings about the new HIV diagnosis, attitudes to rapid ART including barriers to and facilitators of starting. Thematic analysis of transcribed interviews was undertaken. Results: Four themes were identified: (1) being offered rapid ART is acceptable; (2) it is a way of taking control of their health; (3) the need for information and support and (4) an individualised approach to care. Reasons for starting included getting well, staying well and reducing the likelihood of passing on HIV. Facilitators included being given comprehensive information about treatment and managing potential side-effects and a supportive clinical team. Support specified included a non-judgemental attitude, approachability, reassurance, encouragement and information about peer support. Most participants expressed they could not understand why people would not begin treatment, but suggested needing more time to decide and denial of diagnosis as possible barriers. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first qualitative study exploring the experiences of people initiating rapid ART in the UK. It was deemed acceptable to an ethnically diverse, predominantly male sample of people newly diagnosed with HIV. Future research should include strategies to recruit a more gender diverse sample and those who declined or stopped rapid ART.British HIV Association grant number 5020