The Pedophile Prophet? Breathing a Culturally Relative Point of View into a Controversial Cultural Debate

This work focuses on a controversial topic within women studies of the Islamic world, the very young marriage of Mohammad\u27s second wife Aisha. The work attempts to meet the issue on level ground and explain that while this may seem as a spark on conflict between non-Muslim cultures and the Islamic world this marriage was not altogether that uncommon for the time

Investigating the Magnitude and Range of the Urban Heat Island within Gettysburg, Pennsylvania

Cities experience UHIs due to the thermal properties (albedo, thermal emittance, radiative flux, and heat capacity) of human-made substances and urban geometry. This study investigated the existence of an urban heat island (UHI) in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. The goal of this project was to assess whether a small-scale city like Gettysburg demonstrates an UHI effect and, if present, the extent and magnitude of the UHI. We hypothesized that (1) temperatures within the city are significantly higher than the surrounding area, (2) the magnitude of the UHI will diminish as distance from the city center increases, and (3) the UHI will not extend further than 0.5 miles outside the city center. Air temperatures were collected using digital thermometers over four weeks along two different transects that each extended one mile from the center square of Gettysburg. Our results show that Gettysburg, despite its small size, has an UHI. A linear regression model shows that there is a strong correlation between temperature and distance from the center square. The magnitude of the UHI lessens with increasing distance from the center of town. The first two hypotheses were supported while the hypothesis that the UHI will be localized was not. Statistically analyses show that the temperature change remains significant past 0.5 miles. The results of this study demonstrate that even a small-scale city like Gettysburg create a UHI

New Forecasts of the Equity Premium

If investors are myopic mean-variance optimizers, a stock's expected return is linearly related to its beta in the cross section. The slope of the relation is the cross-sectional price of risk, which should equal the expected equity premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We also introduce novel statistical methods for testing stock-return predictability based on endogenous variables whose shocks are potentially correlated with return shocks. Our empirical tests show that the cross-sectional price of risk (1) is strongly correlated with the market's yield measures and (2) predicts equity-premium realizations especially in the first half of our 1927-2002 sample.

Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?

A number of variables are correlated with subsequent returns on the aggregate US stock market in the 20th Century. Some of these variables are stock market valuation ratios, others reflect patterns in corporate finance or the levels of shortand long-term interest rates. Amit Goyal and Ivo Welch (2004) have argued that in-sample correlations conceal a systematic failure of these variables out of sample: None are able to beat a simple forecast based on the historical average stock return. In this note we show that forecasting variables with significant forecasting power insample generally have a better out-of-sample performance than a forecast based on the historical average return, once sensible restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample predictive power is small, but we find that it is economically meaningful. We also show that a variable is quite likely to have poor out-of-sample performance for an extended period of time even when the variable genuinely predicts returns with a stable coefficient.

SB24-13/14: Montana Associated Students

SB24-13/14: Montana Associated Students. This resolution passed 14Y-11N-1A on a roll call vote during the October 16, 2013 meeting of the Associated Students of the University of Montana (ASUM)

SB57-13/14: Electronic Cigarettes in the UC

SB57-13/14: Electronic Cigarettes in the UC. This resolution passed 12Y-9N-2A on a roll call vote during the February 5, 2014 meeting of the Associated Students of the University of Montana (ASUM)

SB50-13/14: Elections

SB50-13/14: Elections. This resolution passed during the December 4, 2013 meeting of the Associated Students of the University of Montana (ASUM)