Impact of weather and climate variation on Hoopoe reproductive ecology and population growth

Preserving peripheral populations is a key conservation issue because of the adaptive potential to environmental change they provide for the species as a whole. Yet, peripheral populations are often small and isolated, i.e. more vulnerable to stochastic events and prone to extinction. We studied a peripheral population of Hoopoe (Upupa epops), a rare insectivorous farmland bird, in the Swiss Alps. We first investigated the effect of weather variation on food provisioning to chicks by Hoopoe parents. Second, while accounting for density-dependence, we tested the extent to which breeding success is governed by weather circumstances and assessed the possible consequences of climate variation on population growth. Provisioning rate and provisioned prey biomass were negatively affected by adverse weather (cool, rainy days), were higher in males and also increased with brood size. Much smaller proportions of molecrickets (Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa; the most profitable prey locally, constituting 93% of chicks' food biomass) were provisioned on days with adverse weather, irrespective of brood size. Rainfall prior to hatching and during the first days of chick life had a negative impact on their survival, and there was a positive effect of temperature on chick survival just before fledging. Reproductive output was negatively affected by precipitation during the hatching period, but was enhanced by warm temperature just before hatching and in the last days before fledging. Our model showed that the variable reproductive output has a strong impact on the population growth: a succession of adverse, rainy springs would cause a rapid decline of the population. This case study confirms that conservation efforts may be obliterated if risks linked to increasing climate variability are not properly accounted for in the management of small peripheral population

A model of the Fed’s view on inflation

view often expressed by the Fed is that three components matter in inflation dynamics: a trend anchored by long run inflation expectations; a cycle connecting nominal and real variables; and oil prices. This paper proposes an econometric structural model of inflation formalising this view. Our findings point to a stable expectational trend, a sizeable and well identified Phillips curve and an oil cycle which, contrary to the standard rational expectation model, affects inflation via expectations without being reflected in the output gap. The latter often overpowers the Phillips curve. In fact, the joint dynamics of the Phillips curve cycle and the oil cycles explain the inflation puzzles of the last ten years

A model of the Fed’s view on inflation

We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view – often expressed by central banks – that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel

The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation action

Modulation Scheme Analysis for Low-Power Leadless Pacemaker Synchronization Based on Conductive Intracardiac Communication

Conductive intracardiac communication (CIC) has been demonstrated as a promising concept for the synchronization of multi-chamber leadless cardiac pacemakers (LLPMs). To meet the 2–5 μ W power budget of a LLPM, highly specialized CIC-transceivers, which make optimal use of the cardiac communication channel, need to be developed. However, a detailed investigation of the optimal communication parameters for CIC-based LLPM synchronization is missing so far. This work analyzes the intracardiac communication performance of two low-power modulation techniques, namely On-Off-Keying (OOK) and Manchester-encoded baseband transmission (BB-MAN), as a function of the transmitted bit-energy. The bit error rate (BER) of a prototype dual-chamber LLPM was determined both in simulation and in-vitro experiments on porcine hearts. A BER of 1e − 4 was achieved with a median bit-energy in the range of 3-16 pJ (interquartile range: 4-15 pJ) for data rates from 75-500 kbps and a receiver input noise density of 7 nV/ √Hz . Both modulation schemes showed comparable performance, with BB-MAN having a slight bit-energy advantage (1-2 dB at 150-500 kbps) under equalized transceiver characteristics. This study demonstrates that reliable CIC-based LLPM synchronization is feasible at transmitted power levels < 10 nW under realistic channel conditions and receiver noise performance. Therefore, modulation techniques such, as BB-MAN or OOK, are preferable over recently proposed alternatives, such as pulse position modulation or conductive impulse signaling, since they can be realized with fewer hardware resources and smaller bandwidth requirements. Ultimately, a baseband communication approach might be favored over OOK, due to the more efficient cardiac signal transmission and reduced transceiver complexity

A miniaturized endocardial electromagnetic energy harvester for leadless cardiac pacemakers

Life expectancy of contemporary cardiac pacemakers is limited due to the use of an internal primary battery. Repeated device replacement interventions are necessary, which leads to an elevated risk for patients and an increase of health care costs. The aim of our study is to investigate the feasibility of powering an endocardial pacemaker by converting a minimal amount of the heart's kinetic energy into electric energy. The intrinsic cardiac muscle activity makes it an ideal candidate as continuous source of energy for endocardial pacemakers. For this reason, we developed a prototype able to generate enough power to supply a pacing circuit at different heart rates. The prototype consists of a mass imbalance that drives an electromagnetic generator while oscillating. We developed a mathematical model to estimate the amount of energy harvested from the right ventricle. Finally, the implemented prototype was successfully tested during in-vitro and in-vivo experiments

When is growth at risk?

This paper empirically evaluates the potentially nonlinear nexus between financial indicators and the distribution of future GDP growth, using a rich set of macroeconomic and financial variables covering thirteen advanced economies. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecast performance of financial variables for GDP growth, including a fully real-time exercise based on a flexible nonparametric model. We also use a parametric model to estimate the moments of the time-varying distribution of GDP and evaluate their in-sample estimation uncertainty. Our overall conclusion is pessimistic: moments other than the conditional mean are poorly estimated, and no predictors we consider provide robust and precise advance warnings of tail risks or indeed about any features of the GDP growth distribution other than the mean. In particular, financial variables contribute little to such distributional forecasts, beyond the information contained in real indicators

Patches of Bare Ground as a Staple Commodity for Declining Ground-Foraging Insectivorous Farmland Birds

Conceived to combat widescale biodiversity erosion in farmland, agri-environment schemes have largely failed to deliver their promises despite massive financial support. While several common species have shown to react positively to existing measures, rare species have continued to decline in most European countries. Of particular concern is the status of insectivorous farmland birds that forage on the ground. We modelled the foraging habitat preferences of four declining insectivorous bird species (hoopoe, wryneck, woodlark, common redstart) inhabiting fruit tree plantations, orchards and vineyards. All species preferred foraging in habitat mosaics consisting of patches of grass and bare ground, with an optimal, species-specific bare ground coverage of 30–70% at the foraging patch scale. In the study areas, birds thrived in intensively cultivated farmland where such ground vegetation mosaics existed. Not promoted by conventional agri-environment schemes until now, patches of bare ground should be implemented throughout grassland in order to prevent further decline of insectivorous farmland birds