Disasters and Development: Natural Disasters, Credit Constraints and Economic Growth. ESRI WP411. October 2011

We demonstrate, using a simple two‐period equilibrium model of the economy, the potential effects of extreme event occurrences - such as natural or humanitarian disasters - on economic growth over the medium- to long-term. In particular, we focus on the effect of such shocks on investment. We examine two polar cases; an economy in which agents have unconstrained access to capital markets, versus a credit-constrained version, where the economy is assumed to operate in financial autarky. Considering these extreme cases allows us to highlight the interaction of disasters and economic underdevelopment, manifested through poorly developed financial markets. The theoretical analysis shows that the shock of a disaster occurrence could have lasting effects on economic growth only if agents face borrowing constraints. The predictions of our theoretical model are then tested using a panel of data on natural disaster events at the country-year level, covering the period 1979-2007. We find that for countries with low levels of financial sector development, natural disaster events exert a significant negative impact on economic growth. In particular, where access to credit is problematic, the negative effects of disasters on growth are persistent over the medium-term. These results are robust to various checks. Our findings suggest that natural disasters do represent significant threats to economic development in poor countries

Flooded cities

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometre. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels

Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We study large urban floods using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's cities. We find that low-elevation urban areas are flooded more frequently, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are flooded, low-elevation areas recover as rapidly as those higher up. With the exception of recently populated urban areas, we find little permanent movement of economic activity in response to floods

The impact of flooding disruption on the spatial distribution of commuter's income

peer-reviewedFlooding already imposes substantial costs to the economy. Costs are expected to rise in future, both as a result of changing weather patterns due to climate change, but also because of changes in exposure to flood risk resulting from socio-economic trends such as economic growth and urbanisation. Existing cost estimates tend to focus on direct damages, excluding potentially important indirect effects such as disruptions to transport and other essential services. This paper estimates the costs to commuters as a result of travel disruptions caused by a flooding event. Using Galway, Ireland as a case study, the commuting travel times under the status quo and during the period of the floods and estimated additional costs imposed, are simulated for every commuter. Results show those already facing large commuting costs are burdened with extra costs with those in rural areas particularly vulnerable. In areas badly affected, extra costs amount to 39% of earnings (during the period of disruption), while those on lower incomes suffer proportionately greater losses. Commuting is found to have a regressive impact on the income distribution, increasing the Gini coefficient from 0.32 to 0.38

A discrete choice experiment exploring farmer preferences for insurance against extreme weather events

peer-reviewedAgriculture represents one of the most vulnerable sectors to extreme weather events that are projected to increase with climate change. Insurance has been advocated as a more efficient means to ensure financial security to farmers, than post-disaster aid for damages. A potential drawback of insurance however, is that unless carefully designed it could dis-incentivise farmers to engage in wider farm adaptation measures or lead to more risk-taking behaviour. This paper analyses the attractiveness of publicly-backed climate risk insurance offerings to farmers and explores their preferences for elements of insurance schemes that do not negatively affect incentives for wider farm adaptation. Specifically, a discrete choice experiment is used to reveal Irish farmers’ preferences for multi-annual insurance contracts and weather-indexed versus traditional indemnity insurance and cost. Results indicate that a majority of farmers are willing to buy publicly-backed insurance for protection from extreme weather events. Younger farmers, farmers who currently have farm insurance, farmers from certain geographical locations and farmers who have been previously affected by extreme weather events are more likely to buy insurance. With respect to the design of insurance schemes, farmers prefer multi-annual coverage versus annual renewal. They also prefer indexed-insurance and have a strong preference for cheaper coverage. Despite the important role that insurance could play in protecting farms financially from damage caused by extreme weather events, few studies have examined preference for weather-indexed insurance within a European context. New evidence on farmer preferences and intended behaviours is therefore critical to inform policy in this area

Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

Processed pseudogenes acquired somatically during cancer development

Cancer evolves by mutation, with somatic reactivation of retrotransposons being one such mutational process. Germline retrotransposition can cause processed pseudogenes, but whether this occurs somatically has not been evaluated. Here we screen sequencing data from 660 cancer samples for somatically acquired pseudogenes. We find 42 events in 17 samples, especially non-small cell lung cancer (5/27) and colorectal cancer (2/11). Genomic features mirror those of germline LINE element retrotranspositions, with frequent target-site duplications (67%), consensus TTTTAA sites at insertion points, inverted rearrangements (21%), 5′ truncation (74%) and polyA tails (88%). Transcriptional consequences include expression of pseudogenes from UTRs or introns of target genes. In addition, a somatic pseudogene that integrated into the promoter and first exon of the tumour suppressor gene, MGA, abrogated expression from that allele. Thus, formation of processed pseudogenes represents a new class of mutation occurring during cancer development, with potentially diverse functional consequences depending on genomic context

Measurement of prompt D0^{0} and D‾\overline{D}0^{0} meson azimuthal anisotropy and search for strong electric fields in PbPb collisions at root SNN\sqrt{S_{NN}} = 5.02 TeV

The strong Coulomb field created in ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions is expected to produce a rapiditydependent difference (Av2) in the second Fourier coefficient of the azimuthal distribution (elliptic flow, v2) between D0 (uc) and D0 (uc) mesons. Motivated by the search for evidence of this field, the CMS detector at the LHC is used to perform the first measurement of Av2. The rapidity-averaged value is found to be (Av2) = 0.001 ? 0.001 (stat)? 0.003 (syst) in PbPb collisions at ?sNN = 5.02 TeV. In addition, the influence of the collision geometry is explored by measuring the D0 and D0mesons v2 and triangular flow coefficient (v3) as functions of rapidity, transverse momentum (pT), and event centrality (a measure of the overlap of the two Pb nuclei). A clear centrality dependence of prompt D0 meson v2 values is observed, while the v3 is largely independent of centrality. These trends are consistent with expectations of flow driven by the initial-state geometry. ? 2021 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY licens

Observation of electroweak production of Wγ with two jets in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

A first observation is presented for the electroweak production of a W boson, a photon, and two jets in proton-proton collisions. The W boson decays are selected by requiring one identified electron or muon and an imbalance in transverse momentum. The two jets are required to have a high dijet mass and a large separation in pseudorapidity. The measurement is based on data collected with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. The observed (expected) significance for this process is 4.9 (4.6) standard deviations. After combining with previously reported CMS results at 8 TeV, the observed (expected) significance is 5.3 (4.8) standard deviations. The cross section for the electroweak W$_{γjj}$ production in a restricted fiducial region is measured as 20.4 +/- 4.5 fb and the total cross section for W$_{γ}$ production in association with 2 jets in the same fiducial region is 108 +/- 16 fb. All results are in good agreement with recent theoretical predictions. Constraints are placed on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in terms of dimension-8 effective field theory operators