Predictability of frontal waves and cyclones

The statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in MOGREPS-15, the global 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The number density of cyclonic features is found to decline with increasing lead-time, with analysis fields containing weak features which are not sustained past the first day of the forecast. This loss of cyclonic features is associated with a decline in area averaged enstrophy with increasing lead time. Both feature number density and area averaged enstrophy saturate by around 7 days into the forecast. It is found that the feature number density and area averaged enstrophy of forecasts produced using model versions that include stochastic energy backscatter saturate at higher values than forecasts produced without stochastic physics. The ability of MOGREPS-15 to predict the locations of cyclonic features of different strengths is evaluated at different spatial scales by examining the Brier Skill (relative to the analysis climatology) of strike probability forecasts: the probability that a cyclonic feature center is located within a specified radius. The radius at which skill is maximised increases with lead time from 650km at 12h to 950km at 7 days. The skill is greatest for the most intense features. Forecast skill remains above zero at these scales out to 14 days for the most intense cyclonic features, but only out to 8 days when all features are included irrespective of intensity

The added value of convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble

Dynamical downscaling of ensemble forecasts to convectionpermitting resolutions aims to improve forecast skill by explicitly resolving mesoscale dynamical features. The success of this approach is dependent on the ability of the model to spin up smaller features embedded in the larger scale flow and provide more local information than could be inferred from knowledge of the climatological response to the large scale flow alone. Here we test whether such additional information is obtained from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems (MOGREPS) for the sea-breeze phenomena which is resolved properly only at convection-permitting resolutions but is driven by large-sale conditions that are well represented in the global driving model. The sea breeze is detected using a new automatic tracking algorithm suitable for use in convective-scale forecast data. The skill of probabilistic forecasts of sea-breeze occurrence from the high resolution ensemble is compared to that of a Bayesian forecast trained on paired high/low resolution ensemble members. This creates a statistical forecast of the high-resolution ensemble member given knowledge of the global forecast ensemble alone. The aim of this paper is twofold: -firstly to assess whether the information about sea breeze occurrence is encoded in a few large-scale parameters and can be forecast by a statistical method ; secondly to estimate what information is gained by running the high resolution forecast beyond that which is contained in these large-scale flow parameters. Comparison of the two forecasting methods using a variety of verification methods all lead to the same conclusion: although both the Bayesian forecast and convection-permitting ensemble provide information about sea-breeze occurrence, the convection-permitting ensemble is significantly more able to discriminate between sea-breeze events and non-events for all lead times

Projective dynamics and first integrals

We present the theory of tensors with Young tableau symmetry as an efficient computational tool in dealing with the polynomial first integrals of a natural system in classical mechanics. We relate a special kind of such first integrals, already studied by Lundmark, to Beltrami's theorem about projectively flat Riemannian manifolds. We set the ground for a new and simple theory of the integrable systems having only quadratic first integrals. This theory begins with two centered quadrics related by central projection, each quadric being a model of a space of constant curvature. Finally, we present an extension of these models to the case of degenerate quadratic forms.Comment: 39 pages, 2 figure

Probing BFKL Dynamics in the Dijet Cross Section at Large Rapidity Intervals in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1800 and 630 GeV

Inclusive dijet production at large pseudorapidity intervals (delta_eta) between the two jets has been suggested as a regime for observing BFKL dynamics. We have measured the dijet cross section for large delta_eta in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1800 and 630 GeV using the DO detector. The partonic cross section increases strongly with the size of delta_eta. The observed growth is even stronger than expected on the basis of BFKL resummation in the leading logarithmic approximation. The growth of the partonic cross section can be accommodated with an effective BFKL intercept of a_{BFKL}(20GeV)=1.65+/-0.07.Comment: Published in Physical Review Letter

Search for Top Squark Pair Production in the Dielectron Channel

This report describes the first search for top squark pair production in the channel stop_1 stopbar_1 -> b bbar chargino_1 chargino_1 -> ee+jets+MEt using 74.9 +- 8.9 pb^-1 of data collected using the D0 detector. A 95% confidence level upper limit on sigma*B is presented. The limit is above the theoretical expectation for sigma*B for this process, but does show the sensitivity of the current D0 data set to a particular topology for new physics.Comment: Five pages, including three figures, submitted to PRD Brief Report

ST6GAL1-mediated aberrant sialylation promotes prostate cancer progression

Aberrant glycosylation is a universal feature of cancer cells, and cancer-associated glycans have been detected in virtually every cancer type. A common change in tumour cell glycosylation is an increase in α2,6 sialylation of N-glycans, a modification driven by the sialyltransferase ST6GAL1. ST6GAL1 is overexpressed in numerous cancer types, and sialylated glycans are fundamental for tumour growth, metastasis, immune evasion, and drug resistance, but the role of ST6GAL1 in prostate cancer is poorly understood. Here, we analyse matched cancer and normal tissue samples from 200 patients and verify that ST6GAL1 is upregulated in prostate cancer tissue. Using MALDI imaging mass spectrometry (MALDI-IMS), we identify larger branched α2,6 sialylated N-glycans that show specificity to prostate tumour tissue. We also monitored ST6GAL1 in plasma samples from >400 patients and reveal ST6GAL1 levels are significantly increased in the blood of men with prostate cancer. Using both in vitro and in vivo studies, we demonstrate that ST6GAL1 promotes prostate tumour growth and invasion. Our findings show ST6GAL1 introduces α2,6 sialylated N-glycans on prostate cancer cells and raise the possibility that prostate cancer cells can secrete active ST6GAL1 enzyme capable of remodelling glycans on the surface of other cells. Furthermore, we find α2,6 sialylated N-glycans expressed by prostate cancer cells can be targeted using the sialyltransferase inhibitor P-3FAX-Neu5Ac. Our study identifies an important role for ST6GAL1 and α2,6 sialylated N-glycans in prostate cancer progression and highlights the opportunity to inhibit abnormal sialylation for the development of new prostate cancer therapeutics

Measurement of the Top Quark Mass Using Dilepton Events

The D0 collaboration has performed a measurement of the top quark mass based on six candidate events for the process t tbar -> b W+ bbar W-, where the W bosons decay to e nu or mu nu. This sample was collected during an exposure of the D0 detector to an integrated luminosity of 125 pb^-1 of sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV p-pbar collisions. We obtain mt = 168.4 +- 12.3 (stat) +- 3.7 (sys) GeV/c^2, consistent with the measurement obtained using single-lepton events. Combination of the single-lepton and dilepton results yields mt = 172.0 +- 7.5 GeV/c^2.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Differential Production Cross Section of Z Bosons as a Function of Transverse Momentum at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV

We present a measurement of the transverse momentum distribution of Z bosons produced in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during 1994--1996. We find good agreement between our data and a current resummation calculation. We also use our data to extract values of the non-perturbative parameters for a particular version of the resummation formalism, obtaining significantly more precise values than previous determinations.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Letters v2 has margin error correcte

Search for Squarks and Gluinos in Events Containing Jets and a Large Imbalance in Transverse Energy

Using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 79 pb-1, D0 has searched for events containing multiple jets and large missing transverse energy in pbar-p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Observing no significant excess beyond what is expected from the standard model, we set limits on the masses of squarks and gluinos and on the model parameters m_0 and m_1/2, in the framework of the minimal low-energy supergravity models of supersymmetry. For tan(beta) = 2 and A_0 = 0, with mu < 0, we exclude all models with m_squark < 250 GeV/c^2. For models with equal squark and gluino masses, we exclude m < 260 GeV/c^2.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Submitted to PRL, Fixed typo on page bottom of p. 6 (QCD multijet background is 35.4 events

Search for bottom squarks in pbarp collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

We report on a search for bottom squarks produced in pbarp collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV using the D0 detector at Fermilab. Bottom squarks are assumed to be produced in pairs and to decay to the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) and a b quark with branching fraction of 100%. The LSP is assumed to be the lightest neutralino and stable. We set limits on the production cross section as a function of bottom squark mass and LSP mass.Comment: 5 pages, Latex. submitted 3-12-1999 to PRD - Rapid Communicatio