PROGRESS IN ESTIMATING THE MARGINAL COSTS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

The unjust distributional consequences of climate change, and its potentially negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare are two reasons to be concerned about climate change. Our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete. Monetary valuation is difficult and controversial. The effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative. Nonetheless, it can be shown that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people. A modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor economics in hot climates, but may have a positive effect on rich economies in temperate climates. If one counts dollars, the world aggregate impact may be positive. If one counts people, the world aggregate effect is probably negative. For more substantial warming, negative effects become more negative, and positive effects turn negative. The marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical and methodological positions, but are unlikely to exceed $50 per tonne of carbon. The marginal costs of methane emission are likely to be less than$250/tCH4; the marginal costs of nitrous oxide emissions are probably lower than $7000/tN2O. Global warming potentials, the official manner to trade-off the various greenhouse gases, do not reflect, conceptually or numerically, the real tradeoffs in either a cost-benefit or a cost-effectiveness framework.Impacts of climate change, economic valuation, equity, marginal costs

Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary

This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a scenarion of rapid rise in sea-level due to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could produce a global rise in sea-level of 5 to 6 metres. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to one interviews and a one-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. Through these interactions we hoped to uncover plausible responses to the scenario and identify potential weaknesses in our current flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. By undertaking this exploratory exercise we hoped to find out whether this was a feasible way to deal with such a low probability but high consequence scenario. It was the process of finding a solution that interested us rather than the technical merits of one solution over another. We were not intending to produce definitive set of recommendations on how to respond but to gain insights into the process of making a decision, specifically what influences it and what assumptions are made.Sea level rise, London

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results

Analyzing adaptation to climate change in the water and the agricultural sectors in the Spanish Guadiana basin.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusion

Early mortality from colorectal cancer in England: a retrospective observational study of the factors associated with death in the first year after diagnosis

Background: The United Kingdom performs poorly in international comparisons of colorectal cancer survival with much of the deficit owing to high numbers of deaths close to the time of diagnosis. This retrospective cohort study investigates the patient, tumour and treatment characteristics of those who die in the first year after diagnosis of their disease. Methods: Patients diagnosed with colon (n=65,733) or rectal (n=26,123) cancer in England between 2006 and 2008 were identified in the National Cancer Data Repository. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the odds of death within 1 month, 1-3 months and 3-12 months after diagnosis. Results: In all, 11.5% of colon and 5.4% of rectal cancer patients died within a month of diagnosis: this proportion decreased significantly over the study period. For both cancer sites, older age, stage at diagnosis, deprivation and emergency presentation were associated with early death. Individuals who died shortly after diagnosis were also more likely to have missing data about important prognostic factors such as disease stage and treatment. Conclusion: Using routinely collected data, at no inconvenience to patients, we have identified some important areas relating to early deaths from colorectal cancer, which merit further research

Newly discovered Ebola virus associated with hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Uganda

In this report we describe a newly discovered ebolavirus species which caused a large hemorrhagic fever outbreak in western Uganda. The virus is genetically distinct, differing by more than 30% at the genome level from all other known ebolavirus species. The unique nature of this virus created challenges for traditional filovirus molecular based diagnostic assays and genome sequencing approaches. Instead, we quickly determined over 70% of the virus genome using a recently developed random-primed pyrosequencing approach that allowed the rapid development of a molecular detection assay that was deployed in the disease outbreak response. This draft sequence allowed easy completion of the whole genome sequence using a traditional primer walking approach and prompt confirmation that this virus represented a new ebolavirus species. Current efforts to design effective diagnostics, antivirals and vaccines will need to take into account the distinct nature of this important new member of the filovirus family