Vaccination Strategies and Herd Immunity Thresholds in Small World Models

Infectious diseases pose a serious threat to humans, plants, and animals. Though vaccines can help control outbreaks of infectious diseases, there is typically not enough vaccine available for the entire population. In this case, certain vaccination strategies can be employed to maximize the benefits for the entire population. Using results from graph theory and the simulation tool lONTW (Infections On NeTWorks), we investigated various vaccination strategies on certain types of so-called contact networks that model the patterns of interactions within a population. In particular, we focused on a certain class of contact networks known as small world models, where individuals are randomly connected, i.e., can transmit and/or contract an infectious disease, along paths that are relatively small in relation to the overall population size. These types of networks tend to provide good estimations of the interactions of real populations when the exact contact network is unknown. However, the complexity and stochasticity of such networks create challenges in determining the best vaccination strategy. Here we discuss our preliminary results for vaccination strategies on small world models, including how many vaccines are needed (a notion related to a concept called the herd immunity threshold) and, for a given amount of vaccine, which individuals should be vaccinated in order to prevent major outbreaks

Volcanic Initiation of the Eocene Heart Mountain Slide, Wyoming, USA

The Eocene Heart Mountain slide of northwest Wyoming covers an area of as much as 5000 km2 and includes allochthonous Paleozoic carbonate and Eocene volcanic rocks with a run-out distance of as much as 85 km. Recent geochronologic data indicated that the emplacement of the slide event occurred at ∼48.9 Ma, using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) extracted from U-Pb zircon ages from basal layer and injectite carbonate ultracataclasite (CUC). We now refine that age with U-Pb results from a lamprophyre diatreme that is temporally and spatially related to the CUC injectites. The ages for the lamprophyre zircons are 48.97 ± 0.36 Ma (LA-ICPMS) and 49.19 ±0.02 Ma (chemical abrasion isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry). Thus, the lamprophyre and CUC zircons are identical in age, and we interpret that the zircons in the CUC were derived from the lamprophyre during slide emplacement. Moreover, the intrusion of the lamprophyre diatreme provided the trigger mechanism for the Heart Mountain slide. Additional structural data are presented for a variety of calcite twinning strains, results from anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility for the lamprophyre and CUC injectites and alternating-field demagnetization on the lamprophyre, to help constrain slide dynamics. These data indicate that White Mountain experienced a rotation about a vertical axis and minimum of 35° of counterclockwise motion during emplacement

Improving Risk Stratification for Patients with Type 2 Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND: Despite poor cardiovascular outcomes, there are no dedicated, validated risk stratification tools to guide investigation or treatment in type 2 myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to derive and validate a risk stratification tool for the prediction of death or future myocardial infarction in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS: The T2-risk score was developed in a prospective multicenter cohort of consecutive patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or death at 1 year using variables selected a priori based on clinical importance. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was investigated graphically. The tool was validated in a single-center cohort of consecutive patients and in a multicenter cohort study from sites across Europe. RESULTS: There were 1,121, 250, and 253 patients in the derivation, single-center, and multicenter validation cohorts, with the primary outcome occurring in 27% (297 of 1,121), 26% (66 of 250), and 14% (35 of 253) of patients, respectively. The T2-risk score incorporating age, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial ischemia on electrocardiogram, heart rate, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and maximal cardiac troponin concentration had good discrimination (AUC: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79) for the primary outcome and was well calibrated. Discrimination was similar in the consecutive patient (AUC: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and multicenter (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64-0.83) cohorts. T2-risk provided improved discrimination over the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 risk score in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The T2-risk score performed well in different health care settings and could help clinicians to prognosticate, as well as target investigation and preventative therapies more effectively. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123

SIGN Fracture Care - Negative Pressure Wound Therapy System

Negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) is a method of healing wounds by applying continuous suction to the affected area. Existing NPWT devices are often too expensive and electrically dependent to be used in low-resource settings of developing countries. The UP capstone team designed and developed an easily assembled, mechanical device to increase accessibility to NPWT in developing countries at a more affordable price.https://pilotscholars.up.edu/egr_project/1036/thumbnail.jp

Process Evaluation of a Medical Student-Delivered Smoking Prevention Program for Secondary Schools: Protocol for the Education Against Tobacco Cluster Randomized Trial

Background: Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence under the impression that smoking entails positive attributes. Given the addictive nature of cigarettes, however, many of them might end up as long-term smokers and suffering from tobacco-related diseases. To prevent tobacco use among adolescents, the large international medical students' network Education Against Tobacco (EAT) educates more than 40,000 secondary school students per year in the classroom setting, using evidence-based self-developed apps and strategies. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of the school-based EAT intervention in reducing smoking prevalence among seventh-grade students in Germany. Additionally, we aimed to improve the intervention by drawing conclusions from our process evaluation. Methods: We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial with measurements at baseline and 9, 16, and 24 months postintervention via paper-and-pencil questionnaires administered by teachers. The study groups consist of randomized schools receiving the 2016 EAT curriculum and control schools with comparable baseline data (no intervention). The primary outcome is the difference of change in smoking prevalence between the intervention and control groups at the 24-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are between-group differences of changes in smoking-related attitudes and the number of new smokers, quitters, and never-smokers. Results: A total of 11,268 students of both sexes, with an average age of 12.32 years, in seventh grade of 144 secondary schools in Germany were included at baseline. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in our sample was 2.6%. The process evaluation surveys were filled out by 324 medical student volunteers, 63 medical student supervisors, 4896 students, and 141 teachers. Conclusions: The EAT cluster randomized trial is the largest school-based tobacco-prevention study in Germany conducted to date. Its results will provide important insights with regards to the effectiveness of medical student-delivered smoking prevention programs at school

Outpatient COVID-19 convalescent plasma recipient antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations within a randomized trial.

BACKGROUNDCOVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) virus-specific antibody levels that translate into recipient posttransfusion antibody levels sufficient to prevent disease progression are not defined.METHODSThis secondary analysis correlated donor and recipient antibody levels to hospitalization risk among unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients within the outpatient, double-blind, randomized clinical trial that compared CCP to control plasma. The majority of COVID-19 CCP arm hospitalizations (15/17, 88%) occurred in this unvaccinated, seronegative subgroup. A functional cutoff to delineate recipient high versus low posttransfusion antibody levels was established by 2 methods: (i) analyzing virus neutralization-equivalent anti-Spike receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin G (anti-S-RBD IgG) responses in donors or (ii) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.RESULTSSARS-CoV-2 anti-S-RBD IgG antibody was volume diluted 21.3-fold into posttransfusion seronegative recipients from matched donor units. Virus-specific antibody delivered was approximately 1.2 mg. The high-antibody recipients transfused early (symptom onset within 5 days) had no hospitalizations. A CCP-recipient analysis for antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations found a statistical significant association between early transfusion and high antibodies versus all other CCP recipients (or control plasma), with antibody cutoffs established by both methods-donor-based virus neutralization cutoffs in posttransfusion recipients (0/85 [0%] versus 15/276 [5.6%]; P = 0.03) or ROC-based cutoff (0/94 [0%] versus 15/267 [5.4%]; P = 0.01).CONCLUSIONIn unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients, early transfusion of plasma units in the upper 30% of study donors antibody levels reduced outpatient hospitalizations. High antibody level plasma units, given early, should be reserved for therapeutic use.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT04373460.FUNDINGDepartment of Defense (W911QY2090012); Defense Health Agency; Bloomberg Philanthropies; the State of Maryland; NIH (3R01AI152078-01S1, U24TR001609-S3, 1K23HL151826NIH); the Mental Wellness Foundation; the Moriah Fund; Octapharma; the Healthnetwork Foundation; the Shear Family Foundation; the NorthShore Research Institute; and the Rice Foundation

Antibody Correlates of Protection for COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Associated with Reduced Outpatient Hospitalizations

SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels associated with reduced hospitalization risk remain undefined. Our outpatient COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP), placebo-controlled trial observed SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels decreasing 22-fold from matched donor units into post-transfusion seronegative recipients. Unvaccinated recipients were jointly stratified by a) early or late transfusion (5 days from symptom onset) and b) high or low post-transfusion SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels ( geometric mean). Early treatment with high post-transfusion antibody levels reduced hospitalization risk-0/102 (0%) compared to all other CCP recipients-17/370 (4.6%; Fisher exact-p-0.03) and to all control plasma recipients-35/461 (7.6%; Fisher exact p-0.001). A similar donor upper/lower half antibody level and early late transfusion stratified analyses indicated significant hospital risk reduction. Pre-transfusion nasal viral loads were similar in CCP and control recipients regardless of hospitalization outcome. Therapeutic CCP should comprise the upper 30% of donor antibody levels to provide effective outpatient use for immunocompromised and immunocompetent outpatients

Outpatient COVID-19 convalescent plasma recipient antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations within a randomized trial

BACKGROUND COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) viral specific antibody levels that translate into recipient post-transfusion antibody levels sufficient to prevent disease progression is not defined.METHODS This secondary analysis correlated donor and recipient antibody levels to hospitalization risk among unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients within the outpatient, double blind, randomized clinical trial that compared CCP to control plasma. The majority of COVID-19 CCP arm hospitalizations (15/17, 88%) occurred in this unvaccinated, seronegative subgroup. A functional cutoff to delineate recipient high versus low post-transfusion antibody levels was established by two methods: 1) analyzing virus neutralization-equivalent anti-Spike-receptor-binding-domain immunoglobulin G (anti-S-RBD IgG) responses in donors or 2) receiver operated curve (ROC) analysis.RESULTS SARS-CoV-2 anti-S-RBD IgG antibody was volume diluted 21.3 fold into post-transfusion seronegative recipients from matched donor units. Viral specific antibody delivered approximated 1.2 mg. The high antibody recipients transfused early (symptom onset within 5 days) had no hospitalizations. A CCP recipient analysis for antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations found a statistical significant association between early transfusion and high antibodies versus all other CCP recipients (or control plasma) with antibody cutoffs established by both methods-donor-based virus neutralization cutoff in post-transfusion recipients: (0/85; 0% versus 15/276; 5.6%) p=0.03 or ROC based cutoff: (0/94; 0% versus 15/267; 5.4%) p=0.01.CONCLUSION In unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients, early transfusion of plasma units in the upper 30% of study donors antibody levels reduced outpatient hospitalizations. High antibody level plasma units, given early, should be reserved for therapeutic use. Trial registration: NCT04373460 FUNDING Defense Health Agency and others