Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis

Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sources of the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by its water balance, consisting of precipitation on the lake, evaporation from the lake, inflow from tributary rivers and lake outflow, controlled by two hydropower dams. Due to a scarcity of in situ observations, previous estimates of individual water balance terms are characterized by substantial uncertainties, which means that the water balance is often not closed independently. In this first part of a two-paper series, we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria, using state-of-the-art remote sensing observations, high-resolution reanalysis downscaling and outflow values recorded at the dam. The uncalibrated computation of the individual water balance terms yields lake level fluctuations that closely match the levels retrieved from satellite altimetry. Precipitation is the main cause of seasonal and interannual lake level fluctuations, and on average causes the lake level to rise from May to July and to fall from August to December. Finally, our results indicate that the 2004–2005 drop in lake level can be about half attributed to a drought in the Lake Victoria Basin and about half to an enhanced outflow, highlighting the sensitivity of the lake level to human operations at the outflow dam.</p

Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 2: Future projections

Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, is one of the major sources of the Nile river. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams of which the allowed discharge is dictated by the Agreed Curve, an equation relating outflow to lake level. Some regional climate models project a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evaporation over Lake Victoria, with potential important implications for its water balance and resulting level. Yet, little is known about the potential consequences of climate change for the water balance of Lake Victoria. In this second part of a two-paper series, we feed a new water balance model for Lake Victoria presented in the first part with climate simulations available through the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa framework. Our results reveal that most regional climate models are not capable of giving a realistic representation of the water balance of Lake Victoria and therefore require bias correction. For two emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), the decrease in precipitation over the lake and an increase in evaporation are compensated by an increase in basin precipitation leading to more inflow. The future lake level projections show that the dam management scenario and not the emission scenario is the main controlling factor of the future water level evolution. Moreover, inter-model uncertainties are larger than emission scenario uncertainties. The comparison of four idealized future management scenarios pursuing certain policy objectives (electricity generation, navigation reliability and environmental conservation) uncovers that the only sustainable management scenario is mimicking natural lake level fluctuations by regulating outflow according to the Agreed Curve. The associated outflow encompasses, however, ranges from 14&thinsp;m3&thinsp;day−1 (−85&thinsp;%) to 200&thinsp;m3&thinsp;day−1 (+100&thinsp;%) within this ensemble, highlighting that future hydropower generation and downstream water availability may strongly change in the next decades even if dam management adheres to he Agreed Curve. Our results overall underline that managing the dam according to the Agreed Curve is a key prerequisite for sustainable future lake levels, but that under this management scenario, climate change might potentially induce profound changes in lake level and outflow volume.</p

Water transfer and crack regimes in nano-colloidal gels

International audienceDirect observations of the surface and shape of model nano-colloidal gels associated with measurements of the spatial distribution of water content during drying show that air starts to significantly penetrate the sample when the material stops shrinking. We show that whether the material fractures or not during desiccation, as air penetrates the porous body, the water saturation decreases but remains almost homogeneous throughout the sample. This air-invasion is at the origin of another type of fracture due to capillary effects; these results provide a new insight in the liquid dynamics at the nano-scale. PACS number(s): 47.56.+r, 68.03.Fg, 81.40.N

Analysis of the solar cycle and core rotation using 15 years of Mark-I observations:1984-1999. I. The solar cycle

High quality observations of the low-degree acoustic modes (p-modes) exist for almost two complete solar cycles using the solar spectrophotometer Mark-I, located at the Observatorio del Teide (Tenerife, Spain) and operating now as part of the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON). We have performed a Fourier analysis of 30 calibrated time-series of one year duration covering a total period of 15 years between 1984 and 1999. Applying different techniques to the resulting power spectra, we study the signature of the solar activity changes on the low-degree p-modes. We show that the variation of the central frequencies and the total velocity power (TVP) changes. A new method of simultaneous fit is developed and a special effort has been made to study the frequency-dependence of the frequency shift. The results confirm a variation of the central frequencies of acoustic modes of about 450 nHz, peak-to-peak, on average for low degree modes between 2.5 and 3.7 mHz. The TVP is anti-correlated with the common activity indices with a decrease of about 20% between the minimum and the maximum of solar cycle 22. The results are compared with those obtained for intermediate degrees, using the LOWL data. The frequency shift is found to increase with the degree with a weak l-dependence similar to that of the inverse mode mass. This verifies earlier suggestions that near surface effects are predominant.Comment: Accepted by A&A October 3 200

Diversifying selection and color-biased dispersal in the asp viper.

BACKGROUND: The presence of intraspecific color polymorphism can have multiple impacts on the ecology of a species; as a consequence, particular color morphs may be strongly selected for in a given habitat type. For example, the asp viper (Vipera aspis) shows a high level of color polymorphism. A blotched morph (cryptic) is common throughout its range (central and western Europe), while a melanistic morph is frequently found in montane populations, presumably for thermoregulatory reasons. Besides, rare atypical uniformly colored individuals are known here and there. Nevertheless, we found in a restricted treeless area of the French Alps, a population containing a high proportion (&gt;50%) of such specimens. The aim of the study is to bring insight into the presence and function of this color morph by (i) studying the genetic structure of these populations using nine microsatellite markers, and testing for (ii) a potential local diversifying selection and (iii) differences in dispersal capacity between blotched and non-blotched vipers. RESULTS: Our genetic analyses support the occurrence of local diversifying selection for the non-blotched phenotype. In addition, we found significant color-biased dispersal, blotched individuals dispersing more than atypical individuals. CONCLUSION: We hypothesize that, in this population, the non-blotched phenotype possess an advantage over the typical one, a phenomenon possibly due to a better background matching ability in a more open habitat. In addition, color-biased dispersal might be partly associated with the observed local diversifying selection, as it can affect the genetic structure of populations, and hence the distribution of color morphs

Emerging role of circulating tumor cells in immunotherapy.

Over the last few years, immunotherapy, in particular, immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, has revolutionized the treatment of several types of cancer. At the same time, the uptake in clinical oncology has been slow owing to the high cost of treatment, associated toxicity profiles and variability of the response to treatment between patients. In response, personalized approaches based on predictive biomarkers have emerged as new tools for patient stratification to achieve effective immunotherapy. Recently, the enumeration and molecular analysis of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) have been highlighted as prognostic biomarkers for the management of cancer patients during chemotherapy and for targeted therapy in a personalized manner. The expression of immune checkpoints on CTCs has been reported in a number of solid tumor types and has provided new insight into cancer immunotherapy management. In this review, we discuss recent advances in the identification of immune checkpoints using CTCs and shed light on the potential applications of CTCs towards the identification of predictive biomarkers for immunotherapy