Influence of different wind directions in relation to topography on the outbreak of convection in Northern England

International audienceThe influence of different wind directions on the outbreak of convection in Northern England, was investigated with a high-resolution numerical model. The Clark model, a 3D finite-difference, non-hydrostatic model was used in this study. It was initialised with the topography of Northern England, a representation of surface characteristics, and used a routinely available meteorological sounding, typical of the unstable conditions. Results showed that convective cells were initially triggered in the lee of the elevated terrain, and that only after the convection had developed, were cells upwind of the elevated terrain produced. The windward slopes themselves seemed sheltered from convection. Under most wind directions, the central Pennines (the Forest of Trawden and the Forest of Rossendale) seemed particularly affected by convective rainfall

The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning

International audienceIn Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating hazards in terms of human life loss and infrastructures. Over the last two decades, flash floods brought losses of a billion Euros of damage in France alone. One of the problems of flash floods is that warning times are very short, leaving typically only a few hours for civil protection services to act. This study investigates if operationally available shortrange numerical weather forecasts together with a rainfall-runoff model can be used as early indication for the occurrence of flash floods. One of the challenges in flash flood forecasting is that the watersheds are typically small and good observational networks of both rainfall and discharge are rare. Therefore, hydrological models are difficult to calibrate and the simulated river discharges cannot always be compared with ground "truth". The lack of observations in most flash flood prone basins, therefore, lead to develop a method where the excess of the simulated discharge above a critical threshold can provide the forecaster with an indication of potential flood hazard in the area with leadtimes of the order of the weather forecasts. This study is focused on the Cévennes-Vivarais region in the Southeast of the Massif Central in France, a region known for devastating flash floods. The critical aspects of using numerical weather forecasting for flash flood forecasting are being described together with a threshold – exceedance. As case study the severe flash flood event which took place on 8–9 September 2002 has been chosen. The short-range weather forecasts, from the Lokalmodell of the German national weather service, are driving the LISFLOOD model, a hybrid between conceptual and physically based rainfall-runoff model. Results of the study indicate that high resolution operational weather forecasting combined with a rainfall-runoff model could be useful to determine flash floods more than 24 hours in advance

Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events

The deadly combination of short to no warning lead times and the vulnerability of urbanized areas makes flash flood events extremely dangerous for the modern society. This paper contributes to flash flood early warning by proposing a multi-stage warning system for heavy precipitation events based on threshold exceedances within a probabilistic framework. It makes use of meteorological products at different resolutions, namely, numerical weather predictions (NWP), radar-NWP blending, and radar nowcasting. The system is composed by two main modules. First, a European Precipitation Index based on a simulated Climatology (EPIC) and probabilistic weather forecasts is calculated to pinpoint catchments at risk of upcoming heavy precipitation. Then, a Probabilistic Flash Flood Guidance System (PFFGS) is activated at the regional scale and uses more accurate input data to reduce the estimation uncertainty. <br></br> The system is tested for a high flow event occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in November 2008 and results from the different meteorological input data are compared and discussed. The strength of coupling the two systems is shown in its ability to detect areas potentially at risk of severe meteorological conditions and then monitoring the evolution by providing more accurate information with higher spatial-temporal resolution as the event approaches

The European Flood Alert System – Part 1: Concept and development

International audienceThis paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution, to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3–10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part 1 of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system's set-up, its underlying components, basic principles, and products, are described. In Part 2, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecast

The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts

Bleeding Meckel’s diverticulum in a 4-month-old infant: Treatment with laparoscopic diverticulectomy. A case report and review of the literature

A bleeding Meckel’s diverticulum is presented in a 4-month-old African American infant. This event is rare at this age, and our patient is only the second 4-month-old infant reported in the English literature. The infant presented with painless frank rectal bleeding, the blood being maroon-colored, and clots were found in the diaper. There was also anemia, with an hemoglobin of less than 8 gm/dl. The color of the blood suggested a bleeding site in the ileo-cecal region, a Meckel’s diverticulum was suspected, which was then confirmed by an isotope scan. A typical Meckel’s diverticulum was found on laparoscopic surgery, was excised, and the infant made an uneventful recovery

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards

Complexity of Strong Implementability

We consider the question of implementability of a social choice function in a classical setting where the preferences of finitely many selfish individuals with private information have to be aggregated towards a social choice. This is one of the central questions in mechanism design. If the concept of weak implementation is considered, the Revelation Principle states that one can restrict attention to truthful implementations and direct revelation mechanisms, which implies that implementability of a social choice function is easy to check. For the concept of strong implementation, however, the Revelation Principle becomes invalid, and the complexity of deciding whether a given social choice function is strongly implementable has been open so far. In this paper, we show by using methods from polyhedral theory that strong implementability of a social choice function can be decided in polynomial space and that each of the payments needed for strong implementation can always be chosen to be of polynomial encoding length. Moreover, we show that strong implementability of a social choice function involving only a single selfish individual can be decided in polynomial time via linear programming