Tackling the Monday Morning Quarterback: Applications of Hindsight Bias in Decision-Making Settings

Extant research has focused largely on what causes hindsight distortion. In contrast, this work examines applied aspects related to the bias in decision-making environments. A conceptual framework is provided and recent real–world examples are presented to outline how decision makers—and those who observe them—show hindsight effects. Then, both negative and positive consequences of the bias are outlined. Strategies are presented to reduce negative effects that occur when decision makers show hindsight distortion. Finally, because it is often not possible to avoid or to correct others\u27 hindsight–tainted evaluations, suggestions for coping with the bias are discussed

Bile acids targeted metabolomics and medication classification data in the ADNI1 and ADNIGO/2 cohorts

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. The mechanism of disease development and progression is not well understood, but increasing evidence suggests multifactorial etiology, with a number of genetic, environmental, and aging-related factors. There is a growing body of evidence that metabolic defects may contribute to this complex disease. To interrogate the relationship between system level metabolites and disease susceptibility and progression, the AD Metabolomics Consortium (ADMC) in partnership with AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) is creating a comprehensive biochemical database for patients in the ADNI1 cohort. We used the Biocrates Bile Acids platform to evaluate the association of metabolic levels with disease risk and progression. We detail the quantitative metabolomics data generated on the baseline samples from ADNI1 and ADNIGO/2 (370 cognitively normal, 887 mild cognitive impairment, and 305 AD). Similar to our previous reports on ADNI1, we present the tools for data quality control and initial analysis. This data descriptor represents the third in a series of comprehensive metabolomics datasets from the ADMC on the ADNI

Altered bile acid profile associates with cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease—An emerging role for gut microbiome

Introduction Increasing evidence suggests a role for the gut microbiome in central nervous system disorders and a specific role for the gut‐brain axis in neurodegeneration. Bile acids (BAs), products of cholesterol metabolism and clearance, are produced in the liver and are further metabolized by gut bacteria. They have major regulatory and signaling functions and seem dysregulated in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Methods Serum levels of 15 primary and secondary BAs and their conjugated forms were measured in 1464 subjects including 370 cognitively normal older adults, 284 with early mild cognitive impairment, 505 with late mild cognitive impairment, and 305 AD cases enrolled in the AD Neuroimaging Initiative. We assessed associations of BA profiles including selected ratios with diagnosis, cognition, and AD‐related genetic variants, adjusting for confounders and multiple testing. Results In AD compared to cognitively normal older adults, we observed significantly lower serum concentrations of a primary BA (cholic acid [CA]) and increased levels of the bacterially produced, secondary BA, deoxycholic acid, and its glycine and taurine conjugated forms. An increased ratio of deoxycholic acid:CA, which reflects 7α‐dehydroxylation of CA by gut bacteria, strongly associated with cognitive decline, a finding replicated in serum and brain samples in the Rush Religious Orders and Memory and Aging Project. Several genetic variants in immune response–related genes implicated in AD showed associations with BA profiles. Discussion We report for the first time an association between altered BA profile, genetic variants implicated in AD, and cognitive changes in disease using a large multicenter study. These findings warrant further investigation of gut dysbiosis and possible role of gut‐liver‐brain axis in the pathogenesis of AD

More Bills than Thrills? Comparing Predicted and Actual Levels of Essential and Nonessential Spending

Peer-Reviewed Journal Article. 17 pagesIn terms of the expense, spending $50 a week on both commuting and on a recreational happy hour should be perceived equally. Yet, it is proposed that consumers tend to overestimate their level of spending on necessities, and underestimate their extent of nonessential expenses. In two studies, participants predicted their level of spending in essential and nonessential purchase categories, and then recorded their actual spending across multiple weeks. Results show support for each hypothesis in some categories, and propose factors that produce accurate estimates for other purchase types. Consequences of spending misperceptions are discussed, as well as suggestions to reduce them

Sharing good fortune: Effects of scarcity on small donation requests

Based on studies linking positive outcomes to subsequent helping, it was hypothesized that when individuals receive their choice of items when supply is constrained they will show heightened prosocial behavior. Participants either received a choice of candy when it was plentiful, a choice of candy under scarce conditions, or no option to choose between candies under scarce conditions. All were subsequently invited to keep previously acquired school supplies or to donate them back. As hypothesized, when participants received their choice of candy their donation rate was higher in the scarce, versus the non-scarce, condition. Those not receiving choice due to scarcity behaved similarly to those who received choice under the condition of plenty. Discussion focuses on applications to encourage helpfulness

How Does the Congruity of Brand Names Affect Evaluations of Brand Name Extensions

In 2 studies, the authors examined whether or not G. Handler's (1982) schema congruity theory would explain students ' evaluations of new products purportedly introduced by companies with established brand names that were congruent, moderately incongruent, or extremely incongruent in relationship to the product. Consistent with this theory, results showed that products associated with moderately incongruent brand names were preferred over ones that were associated with either congruent or extremely incongruent brand names. Results suggest that this finding may be mediated by students ' greater elaboration of the incongruent brand name and related information and by the process of resolving incongruity. Brand names that have been trademarked and successfully developed over the years are among the most valuable assets that firms possess. With new-brand introduction costs averaging between $50 million and$100 million (Brown, 1985), any attempt to duplicate the recognition, goodwill, and positive associations tied to such established brand names is likely to be prohibitively expensive. For this reason, an increasing number of firms have turned to leveraging their existing brand names by introducing new products under these established names—a practice called brand name extension. Along these lines, products ranging from soft drinks to vitamins have been introduced under the Sunkist name, and Kodak has attached its brand name to such varied products as videocassettes, copiers, and batteries. Indeed, estimates suggest that 81 % of consumer products introduced in 1990 were brand extensions (Stern, 1992). Furthermore, in 1986 alone, products using licenses or trademarked brand names accounted for over $ 15 billion in retail sales and over 34 % of apparel and accessory sales (Kesler, 1987). The success achieved by such brand name extensions has been rather mixed. For example, Levi Strauss, a company whose name is almost synonymous with blue jeans, successfully added both footwear and men's casual pants to the line of products bearing the Levi's name; yet, the introduction of men's three-piece suits under the Levi's name proved to be a very expensiv