Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on global climate model (GCM) projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low-probability events with significant impacts. As a means of exploring such events, physical climate storyline approaches aim to quantify physically coherent articulations of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis and analyses storylines based on changes to (1) precondition severity, (2) temporal drought sequence, and (3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that the maximum intensity, mean deficit, and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly influenced by its meteorological preconditions prior to drought inception, particularly for northern catchments at shorter timescales. The influence of progressively drier preconditions reflects both the spatial variation in drought preconditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. There are two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “third dry winter” storyline. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–1976) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–1993) shows that, for each storyline (including the climate change storylines), drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealised droughts

Uranium nitride-silicide advanced nuclear fuel: Higher efficiency and greater safety

The development of new nuclear fuel compositions is being driven by an interest in improving efficiency/lowering cost and increasing safety margins. Nuclear fuel efficiency is in large measure a function of the atomic density of the uranium, that is, the more fissionable uranium available per unit volume the less fuel volume that is required. Proliferation concerns limit the concentration of fissile 235U, and thus attention is directed to higher overall uranium content fuel. Among the options are the high temperature phases U3Si2 and composite UN- U3Si2 where the design would have the more water-stable U3Si2 surround the more soluble, but higher uranium density UN grains. (Uranium metal of course has the highest atomic density, however its low melting point, high degree of swelling under irradiation, and chemical reactivity eliminate it from consideration.) Another advantage of the nitride and silicide phases are their high thermal conductivity, greatly exceeding the current standard UO2 fuel, with the high conductivity potentially allowing the fuel to operate at a higher power density. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

Loss of Biological Diversity: A Global Crisis Requiring International Solutions: A Report to the National Science Board

Executive Summary Biological diversity refers to the variety and variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes in which they occur. Diversity can be defined as the number of different items and their relative frequency. For biological diversity, these items are organized at many levels, ranging from complete ecosystems to the chemical structures that are the molecular basis of heredity. Thus, the term encompasses different ecosystems, species, genes, and their relative abundance (OTA, 1987). There is an ongoing, unprecedented loss of the variety as well as absolute numbers of organisms-from the smallest microorganism to the largest and most spectacular of mammals. Loss of tropical moist forests, which contain over half the total species of organisms, has been well documented by scientists and is now widely reported in the media. Many other ecosystems are also threatened; as human populations and their support systems expand, natural ecosystems at all latitudes are altered or converted. At its meeting on October 15, 1987, the National Science Board concluded that the world\u27s decreasing biological diversity is a critical scientific issue requiring immediate attention. The National Science Board\u27s Committee on International Science was asked to study the scientific and international aspects of the decline of biological diversity and to recommend a course of action. This report describes what the National Science Foundation (NSF) can do to influence the U.S. science and education base, articulates where international scientific cooperation is needed, and suggests roles for other agencies and organizations (both national and international) which have scientific, educational, and management responsibilities. The current disappearance of biota has several causes: the destruction or degradation of entire ecosystems; the accelerating loss of individual species from communities or ecosystems as a result of human disturb;mce; and the loss of genetically distinct parts of populations due to human-induced selective pressures. Although not all parts of the planet are equally affected, the problem is global, and human activities are the primary cause. The loss of biological diversity is important because human existence depends on the biological resources of 1 the earth. Human prosperity is based very largely on the ability to utilize biological diversity: to take advantage of the properties of plants, animals, fungi, and microorganisms for food, clothing, medicine, and shelter. Scientific knowledge about the earth\u27s biological diversity has huge gaps. This lack of information hampers society\u27s ability either to estimate the magnitude of the problem or to prevent further losses. It is impossible to identify all the biological resources at risk, since there is no complete inventory of all the life forms on earth. Approximately 1.4 million species have been given scientific names, but estimates of actual numbers range from 5 million to 80 million species. Although knowledge of some taxa is extensive, the vast majority of groups are largely unknown. The current wave of extinction is destroying both known biotic resources and those still undiscovered. As is proving to be the case with most environmental problems, neither the loss of biological diversity nor its solution is the exclusive province of any one nation. International cooperation is necessary to develop both scientific knowledge and successful mitigation and management strategies. The root causes of the problem include sociological and economic processes which operate on an global scale; a thorough understanding will require investigation and elucidation of both biological and non-biological components. There are several reasons for increasing National Science Foundation (NSF) involvement in biodiversity studies: the economic and social importance of biodiversity (and the risk of opportunity lost due to accelerating extinction); the contributions such leadership can make toward to conservation of biological diversity; the important role of such studies in the international growth of science, especially in tropical countries; the potential impact of such studies on the future course of biology as a whole; and enhancing public awareness of the issues. NSF should assume a scientific leadership position with respect to agencies in the U.S. and throughout the world. By insisting on the central importance of biodiversity, the NSF could encourage collaborative support for the actions recommended below. 1. The Committee believes that the role of the NSF is clear-NSF should, as a matter of National Science Board Policy, provide leadership to undertake the inventory of the world\u27s biodiversity. 2. The scientific basis for conservation biology, restoration ecology, and environmental management must be strengthened. 3. Educational and public awareness programs related to biodiversity need increased support. 4. The economic and social aspects of the biodiversity crisis need additional study. 5. Enhance support for developing country scientists and institutions for biodiversity research and conservation

Vertical dust mixing and the interannual variations in the Mars thermosphere

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94815/1/jgre2303.pd

Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives

The conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more when their ballot measure is likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive dataset of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood