Effectiveness of EDACS Versus ADAPT Accelerated Diagnostic Pathways for Chest Pain: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial Embedded Within Practice

Study objective A 2-hour accelerated diagnostic pathway based on the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction score, ECG, and troponin measures (ADAPT-ADP) increased early discharge of patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction presenting to the emergency department compared with standard care (from 11% to 19.3%). Observational studies suggest that an accelerated diagnostic pathway using the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest Pain Score (EDACS-ADP) may further increase this proportion. This trial tests for the existence and size of any beneficial effect of using the EDACS-ADP in routine clinical care. Methods This was a pragmatic randomized controlled trial of adults with suspected acute myocardial infarction, comparing the ADAPT-ADP and the EDACS-ADP. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients discharged to outpatient care within 6 hours of attendance, without subsequent major adverse cardiac event within 30 days. Results Five hundred fifty-eight patients were recruited, 279 in each arm. Sixty-six patients (11.8%) had a major adverse cardiac event within 30 days (ADAPT-ADP 29; EDACS-ADP 37); 11.1% more patients (95% confidence interval 2.8% to 19.4%) were identified as low risk in EDACS-ADP (41.6%) than in ADAPT-ADP (30.5%). No low-risk patients had a major adverse cardiac event within 30 days (0.0% [0.0% to 1.9%]). There was no difference in the primary outcome of proportion discharged within 6 hours (EDACS-ADP 32.3%; ADAPT-ADP 34.4%; difference −2.1% [−10.3% to 6.0%], P=.65). Conclusion There was no difference in the proportion of patients discharged early despite more patients being classified as low risk by the EDACS-ADP than the ADAPT-ADP. Both accelerated diagnostic pathways are effective strategies for chest pain assessment and resulted in an increased rate of early discharges compared with previously reported rates

Validation of the myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index machine learning algorithm to guide the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in a heterogenous population: a prespecified exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic pathways for myocardial infarction rely on fixed troponin thresholds, which do not recognise that troponin varies by age, sex, and time within individuals. To overcome this limitation, we recently introduced a machine learning algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate whether this algorithm performs well in routine clinical practice and predicts subsequent events. METHODS: The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm was validated in a prespecified exploratory analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial done in Scotland, UK that included consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome undergoing serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurement. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were excluded. MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0-100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction during the index visit and estimates diagnostic performance metrics (including area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, and the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) at the computed score. Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1 or type 4b), and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year was determined using the previously defined low-probability threshold (1·6) and high-probability MI3 threshold (49·7). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01852123. FINDINGS: In total, 20 761 patients (64 years [SD 16], 9597 [46%] women) enrolled between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, were included from the High-STEACS trial cohort, of whom 3272 (15·8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0·949 (95% CI 0·946-0·952) identifying 12 983 (62·5%) patients as low-probability for myocardial infarction at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score <1·6; sensitivity 99·3% [95% CI 99·0-99·6], negative predictive value 99·8% [99·8-99·9]), and 2961 (14·3%) as high-probability at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score ≥49·7; specificity 95·0% [94·6-95·3], positive predictive value 70·4% [68·7-72·0]). At 1 year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability patients than low-probability patients (520 [17·6%] of 2961 vs 197 [1·5%] of 12 983], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In consecutive patients undergoing serial cardiac troponin measurement for suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimated the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicted subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. By providing individual probabilities the MI3 algorithm could improve the diagnosis and assessment of risk in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and NHSX

Explaining Myanmar's Regime Transition: The Periphery is Central

In 2010, Myanmar (Burma) held its first elections after 22 years of direct military rule. Few compelling explanations for this regime transition have emerged. This article critiques popular accounts and potential explanations generated by theories of authoritarian ‘regime breakdown’ and ‘regime maintenance’. It returns instead to the classical literature on military intervention and withdrawal. Military regimes, when not terminated by internal factionalism or external unrest, typically liberalise once they feel they have sufficiently addressed the crises that prompted their seizure of power. This was the case in Myanmar. The military intervened for fear that political unrest and ethnic-minority separatist insurgencies would destroy Myanmar’s always-fragile territorial integrity and sovereignty. Far from suddenly liberalising in 2010, the regime sought to create a ‘disciplined democracy’ to safeguard its preferred social and political order twice before, but was thwarted by societal opposition. Its success in 2010 stemmed from a strategy of coercive state-building and economic incorporation via ‘ceasefire capitalism’, which weakened and co-opted much of the opposition. Having altered the balance of forces in its favour, the regime felt sufficiently confident to impose its preferred settlement. However, the transition neither reflected total ‘victory’ for the military nor secured a genuine or lasting peace

The utility of presentation and 4-hour high sensitivity troponin I to rule-out acute myocardial infarction in the emergency department

Objectives: International guidance recommends that early serial sampling of high sensitivity troponin be used to accurately identify acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in chest pain patients. The background evidence for this approach is limited. We evaluated whether on presentation and 4-hour high-sensitivity troponin I (hs-cTnI) could be used to accurately rule-out AMI. Design and methods: hs-cTnI was measured on presentation and at 4-hours in adult patients attending an emergency department with possible acute coronary syndrome. We determined the sensitivity for AMI for at least one hs-cTnI above the 99th percentile for a healthy population or alone or in combination with new ischemic ECG changes. Both overall and sex-specific 99th percentiles were assessed. Patients with negative tests were designated low-risk. Results: 63 (17.1%) of 368 patients had AMI. The median (interquartile range) time from symptom onset to first blood sampling was 4.8. h (2.8-8.6). The sensitivity of the presentation and 4. h hs-cTnI using the overall 99th percentile was 92.1% (95% CI 82.4% to 97.4%) and negative predictive value 95.4% (92.3% to 97.4%) with 78.3% low-risk. Applying the sex-specific 99th percentile did not change the sensitivity. The addition of ECG did not change the sensitivity. Conclusion: Hs-cTnI >. 99th percentile thresholds measured on presentation and at 4-hours was not a safe strategy to rule-out AMI in this clinical setting irrespective of whether sex-specific 99th percentiles were used, or whether hs-cTnI was combined with ECG results

Heart Fatty Acid Binding Protein and cardiac troponin: development of an optimal rule-out strategy for acute myocardial infarction

Background: Improved ability to rapidly rule-out Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) in patients presenting with chest pain will promote decongestion of the Emergency Department (ED) and reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. We assessed a new commercial Heart Fatty Acid Binding Protein (H-FABP) assay for additional diagnostic value when combined with cardiac troponin (using a high sensitivity assay). Methods: H-FABP and high-sensitivity troponins I (hs-cTnI) and T (hs-cTnT) were measured in samples taken on-presentation from patients, attending the ED, with symptoms triggering investigation for possible acute coronary syndrome. The optimal combination of H-FABP with each hs-cTn was defined as that which maximized the proportion of patients with a negative test (low-risk) whilst maintaining at least 99 % sensitivity for AMI. A negative test comprised both H-FABP and hs-cTn below the chosen threshold in the absence of ischemic changes on the ECG. Results: One thousand seventy-nine patients were recruited including 248 with AMI. H-FABP 99 % sensitivity for AMI whilst classifying 40.9 % of patients as low-risk. The combination of H-FABP < 3.9 ng/mL and hs-cTnT < 7.6 ng/L with a negative ECG maintained the same sensitivity whilst classifying 32.1 % of patients as low risk. Conclusions: In patients requiring rule-out of AMI, the addition of H-FABP to hs-cTn at presentation (in the absence of new ischaemic ECG findings) may accelerate clinical diagnostic decision making by identifying up to 40 % of such patients as low-risk for AMI on the basis of blood tests performed on presentation. If implemented this has the potential to significantly accelerate triaging of patients for early discharge from the ED

Genetic variants of MICB and PLCE1 and associations with the laboratory features of dengue

Background: A previous genome-wide association study identified 2 susceptibility loci for severe dengue at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360 and further work showed these mutations to be also associated with less severe clinical presentations. The aim of this study was to determine if these specific loci were associated with laboratory features of dengue that correlate with clinical severity with the aim of elucidating the functional basis of these genetic variants. Methods: This was a case-only analysis of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients obtained from 2 prospective cohort studies and 1 randomised clinical trial in Vietnam (Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN03147572. Registered 24th July 2012). 2742 dengue cases were successfully genotyped at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360. Laboratory variables were compared between genotypes and stratified by DENV serotype. Results: The analysis showed no association between MICB and PLCE1 genotype and early viraemia level, platelet nadir, white cell count nadir, or maximum haematocrit in both overall analysis and in analysis stratified by serotype. Discussion: The lack of an association between genotype and viremia level may reflect the sampling procedures within the included studies. The study findings mean that the functional basis of these mutations remains unclear. Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN03147572. Registered 24th July 2012

Troponin elevation pattern and subsequent cardiac and non-cardiac outcomes: Implementing the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction and high-sensitivity troponin at a population level

Background: The Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) differentiates MI from myocardial injury. We characterised the temporal course of cardiac and non-cardiac outcomes associated with MI, acute and chronic myocardial injury. Methods: We included all patients presenting to public emergency departments in South Australia between June 2011–Sept 2019. Episodes of care (EOCs) were classified into 5 groups based on high-sensitivity troponin-T (hs-cTnT) and diagnostic codes: 1) Acute MI [rise/fall in hs-cTnT and primary diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome], 2) Acute myocardial injury with coronary artery disease (CAD) [rise/fall in hs-cTnT and diagnosis of CAD], 3) Acute myocardial injury without CAD [rise/fall in hs-cTnT without diagnosis of CAD], 4) Chronic myocardial injury [elevated hs-cTnT without rise/fall], and 5) No myocardial injury. Multivariable flexible parametric models were used to characterize the temporal hazard of death, MI, heart failure (HF), and ventricular arrhythmia. Results: 372,310 EOCs (218,878 individuals) were included: acute MI (19,052 [5.12%]), acute myocardial injury with CAD (6,928 [1.86%]), acute myocardial injury without CAD (32,231 [8.66%]), chronic myocardial injury (55,056 [14.79%]), and no myocardial injury (259,043 [69.58%]). We observed an early hazard of MI and HF after acute MI and acute myocardial injury with CAD. In contrast, subsequent MI risk was lower and more constant in patients with acute injury without CAD or chronic injury. All patterns of myocardial injury were associated with significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality and ventricular arrhythmia. Conclusions: Different patterns of myocardial injury were associated with divergent profiles of subsequent cardiac and non-cardiac risk. The therapeutic approach and modifiability of such excess risks require further research

Interpretation of positive troponin results among patients with and without myocardial infarction.

Measuring cardiac troponins is integral to diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (AMI); however, troponins may be elevated without AMI, and the use of multiple different assays confounds comparisons. We considered characteristics and serial troponin values in emergency department chest pain patients with and without AMI to interpret troponin excursions. We compared serial troponin in 124 AMI and non-AMI patients from the observational Performance of Triage Cardiac Markers in the Clinical Setting (PEARL) study who presented with chest pain and had at least one troponin value exceeding the 99th percentile of normal. Because 8 assays were used during data collection, we employed a method of scaling the troponin value to the corresponding assay\u27s 99th percentile upper reference limit to standardize the results. In 81 AMI patients, 96% had elevated troponin at the first test following initial elevation, compared to 73% of the 43 non-AMI patients