Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies

Given the powerful implications of relationship quality for health and well-being, a central mission of relationship science is explaining why some romantic relationships thrive more than others. This large-scale project used machine learning (i.e., Random Forests) to 1) quantify the extent to which relationship quality is predictable and 2) identify which constructs reliably predict relationship quality. Across 43 dyadic longitudinal datasets from 29 laboratories, the top relationship-specific predictors of relationship quality were perceived-partner commitment, appreciation, sexual satisfaction, perceived-partner satisfaction, and conflict. The top individual-difference predictors were life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, and attachment anxiety. Overall, relationship-specific variables predicted up to 45% of variance at baseline, and up to 18% of variance at the end of each study. Individual differences also performed well (21% and 12%, respectively). Actor-reported variables (i.e., own relationship-specific and individual-difference variables) predicted two to four times more variance than partner-reported variables (i.e., the partner’s ratings on those variables). Importantly, individual differences and partner reports had no predictive effects beyond actor-reported relationship-specific variables alone. These findings imply that the sum of all individual differences and partner experiences exert their influence on relationship quality via a person’s own relationship-specific experiences, and effects due to moderation by individual differences and moderation by partner-reports may be quite small. Finally, relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables. This collective effort should guide future models of relationships

Predicting relationship change across the transition to parenthood: Resources and risk factors

This dissertation investigates how parents’ romantic relationship changes across the transition to parenthood. Using two longitudinal datasets (N = 109 and N = 210 couples) it aims to identify pre-pregnancy and prenatal strengths and vulnerabilities that predict adaptation to, and relationship quality change across, the transition to parenthood up to several years post-partum. The first study examined positive relationship processes as resources that predict parent’s adaptation to parenthood. The second studied pre-pregnancy happiness as a resource that predicts changes in relationship commitment across the transition to parenthood. The third and fourth studies explored the existence of subgroups in changes in relationship satisfaction, and resources and risk factors as predictors of subgroup membership. The results show that parents with higher levels of resources and lower levels of risk factors fare better across the transition to parenthood in terms of relationship satisfaction, commitment, and adaptation. The predictive power of pre-pregnancy and prenatal factors suggest that childbirth does not create sudden changes in the relationship, but intensifies pre-existing strengths and weaknesses in the relationship. In addition, the results show that parents are a diverse group with unique patterns of change across the transition to parenthood. The majority of parents reported stable relationship satisfaction across the transition to parenthood, while only small subgroups experienced a (strong) decline in satisfaction. The results suggest that early detection of at-risk parents is possible, and this implies that that the efficacy of interventions might be improved by focusing on these parents and increasing their personal and relational resources

Predicting relationship change across the transition to parenthood: Resources and risk factors

This dissertation investigates how parents’ romantic relationship changes across the transition to parenthood. Using two longitudinal datasets (N = 109 and N = 210 couples) it aims to identify pre-pregnancy and prenatal strengths and vulnerabilities that predict adaptation to, and relationship quality change across, the transition to parenthood up to several years post-partum. The first study examined positive relationship processes as resources that predict parent’s adaptation to parenthood. The second studied pre-pregnancy happiness as a resource that predicts changes in relationship commitment across the transition to parenthood. The third and fourth studies explored the existence of subgroups in changes in relationship satisfaction, and resources and risk factors as predictors of subgroup membership. The results show that parents with higher levels of resources and lower levels of risk factors fare better across the transition to parenthood in terms of relationship satisfaction, commitment, and adaptation. The predictive power of pre-pregnancy and prenatal factors suggest that childbirth does not create sudden changes in the relationship, but intensifies pre-existing strengths and weaknesses in the relationship. In addition, the results show that parents are a diverse group with unique patterns of change across the transition to parenthood. The majority of parents reported stable relationship satisfaction across the transition to parenthood, while only small subgroups experienced a (strong) decline in satisfaction. The results suggest that early detection of at-risk parents is possible, and this implies that that the efficacy of interventions might be improved by focusing on these parents and increasing their personal and relational resources

Relational Processes as Predictors of Relationship Satisfaction Trajectories Across the Transition to Parenthood

Objective To identify subgroups of parents with distinct patterns of change in relationship satisfaction across the transition to parenthood and predict subgroup membership from prenatal levels of relational processes. Background The average decline in relationship satisfaction that is generally found across the transition to parenthood masks the existence of subgroups of parents who show distinct patterns of change across the transition to parenthood. Method Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was conducted using four waves of data from a Dutch sample of 440 first-time parents (210 couples; pregnancy to 1 year postpartum). Subgroups subsequently were examined to explore differences in prenatal relational processes. Results More than half of parents reported no change in relationship satisfaction after childbirth, and only small subgroups of new parents experienced strong declines. Levels of one's own and one's partner's relationship maintenance behavior, perceived responsiveness, and accommodation during pregnancy predicted subgroup membership. Conclusion The results underscore the importance of examining heterogeneity in relationship change across the transition to parenthood, and prenatal levels of relational processes are associated with differential relationship satisfaction trajectories. Implications The results imply that targeting the group of parents that are most at risk for relationship satisfaction decline after childbirth and starting relationship interventions during pregnancy may contribute to the effectiveness of interventions

Changes in Relationship Commitment Across the Transition to Parenthood: Pre-pregnancy Happiness as a Protective Resource

The transition to parenthood is both a joyous and a challenging event in a relationship. Studies to date have found mostly negative effects of the birth of the first child on the parental relationship. We propose that partners' pre-pregnancy individual happiness may serve as a buffer against these negative effects. We predicted that parents who are happy prior to pregnancy fare better in terms of relationship commitment after childbirth than unhappy parents. To test our prediction, we used data of a 5-wave longitudinal study among 109 Dutch newlywed couples who had their first child during the study and a comparison group of 55 couples who remained childless. We found that the relationship commitment of fathers with higher pre-pregnancy happiness and fathers with a partner with higher pre-pregnancy happiness increased slightly in the years after childbirth, whereas the relationship commitment of fathers with lower pre-pregnancy happiness and fathers with a partner with lower pre-pregnancy happiness decreased. In addition, the relationship commitment of mothers with a happier partner prior to pregnancy decreased only slightly across the transition to parenthood but showed a steeper decline for mothers with a partner with average or lower pre-pregnancy happiness. In line with the idea that happiness acts as a resource when partners have to deal with relationship challenges, individual happiness predicted changes in relationship commitment for parents, but not for partners who remained childless

A Dyadic Test of the Association Between Trait Self-Control and Romantic Relationship Satisfaction

Previous research has demonstrated that trait self-control is related to a range of positive romantic relationship processes, suggesting that trait self-control should be positively and robustly linked to relationship satisfaction in both partners in a romantic relationship. However, the existing empirical evidence is limited and mixed, especially regarding partner effects (i.e., the effect of one’s self-control on the partner’s relationship satisfaction). With three datasets of heterosexual couples (S1: N = 195 newlyweds, longitudinal; S2: N = 249 couples who transition into first parenthood, longitudinal; S3: N = 929 couples, cross-sectional), the present pre-registered studies examined: (1) the dyadic associations between trait self-control and relationship satisfaction both crosssectionally and longitudinally, and (2) whether these effects hold when controlling for both partners’ relationship commitment. The results indicated a cross-sectional positive actor effect, some support for a positive cross-sectional partner effect, and only little support for a longitudinal actor (but not partner) effect. After controlling for relationship commitment, all effects of trait self-control on satisfaction diminished except for a longitudinal actor effect among women in Study 2. Potential explanations for the current results, and implications for theory and practice, are discussed

A dyadic test of the association between trait self-control and romantic relationship satisfaction

Contains fulltext : 227651.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Previous research has demonstrated that trait self-control is related to a range of positive romantic relationship processes, suggesting that trait self-control should be positively and robustly linked to relationship satisfaction in both partners in a romantic relationship. However, the existing empirical evidence is limited and mixed, especially regarding partner effects (i.e., the effect of one’s self-control on the partner's relationship satisfaction). With three datasets of heterosexual couples (S1: N = 195 newlyweds, longitudinal; S2: N = 249 couples who transition into first parenthood, longitudinal; S3: N = 929 couples, cross-sectional), the present pre-registered studies examined: (1) the dyadic associations between trait self-control and relationship satisfaction both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, and (2) whether these effects hold when controlling for both partners’ relationship commitment. The results indicated a cross-sectional positive actor effect, some support for a positive cross-sectional partner effect, and only little support for a longitudinal actor (but not partner) effect. After controlling for relationship commitment, all effects of trait self-control on satisfaction diminished except for a longitudinal actor effect among women in Study 2. Potential explanations for the current results, and implications for theory and practice, are discussed.13 p

A Dyadic Test of the Association Between Trait Self-Control and Romantic Relationship Satisfaction

Previous research has demonstrated that trait self-control is related to a range of positive romantic relationship processes, suggesting that trait self-control should be positively and robustly linked to relationship satisfaction in both partners in a romantic relationship. However, the existing empirical evidence is limited and mixed, especially regarding partner effects (i.e., the effect of one’s self-control on the partner’s relationship satisfaction). With three datasets of heterosexual couples (S1: N = 195 newlyweds, longitudinal; S2: N = 249 couples who transition into first parenthood, longitudinal; S3: N = 929 couples, cross-sectional), the present pre-registered studies examined: (1) the dyadic associations between trait self-control and relationship satisfaction both crosssectionally and longitudinally, and (2) whether these effects hold when controlling for both partners’ relationship commitment. The results indicated a cross-sectional positive actor effect, some support for a positive cross-sectional partner effect, and only little support for a longitudinal actor (but not partner) effect. After controlling for relationship commitment, all effects of trait self-control on satisfaction diminished except for a longitudinal actor effect among women in Study 2. Potential explanations for the current results, and implications for theory and practice, are discussed

Relational Processes as Predictors of Relationship Satisfaction Trajectories Across the Transition to Parenthood

Objective To identify subgroups of parents with distinct patterns of change in relationship satisfaction across the transition to parenthood and predict subgroup membership from prenatal levels of relational processes. Background The average decline in relationship satisfaction that is generally found across the transition to parenthood masks the existence of subgroups of parents who show distinct patterns of change across the transition to parenthood. Method Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was conducted using four waves of data from a Dutch sample of 440 first-time parents (210 couples; pregnancy to 1 year postpartum). Subgroups subsequently were examined to explore differences in prenatal relational processes. Results More than half of parents reported no change in relationship satisfaction after childbirth, and only small subgroups of new parents experienced strong declines. Levels of one's own and one's partner's relationship maintenance behavior, perceived responsiveness, and accommodation during pregnancy predicted subgroup membership. Conclusion The results underscore the importance of examining heterogeneity in relationship change across the transition to parenthood, and prenatal levels of relational processes are associated with differential relationship satisfaction trajectories. Implications The results imply that targeting the group of parents that are most at risk for relationship satisfaction decline after childbirth and starting relationship interventions during pregnancy may contribute to the effectiveness of interventions