Climate Change is Leading to Rapid Shifts in Seasonality in the Himalaya

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe. The general consensus is that the Earth’s vegetation has experienced an advance in the spring phases and a delay in senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. We have used the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya, and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology in the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in spring phases (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced effects in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region, unlike other studies from high elevations. We discuss four possible explanations why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future

Pastoralism in the highest peaks: Role of the traditional grazing systems in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function in the alpine Himalaya.

Rangelands cover around half of the planet's land mass and provide vital ecosystem services to over a quarter of humanity. The Himalayan rangelands, part of a global biodiversity hotspot is among the most threatened regions in the world. In rangelands of many developing nations policies banning grazing in protected areas is common practice. In 1998, the Indian state of Sikkim, in the Eastern Himalaya, enacted a grazing ban in response to growing anthropogenic pressure in pastures and forests that was presumably leading to degradation of biodiversity. Studies from the region demonstrate the grazing ban has had some beneficial results in the form of increased carbon stocks and regeneration of some species of conservation value but the ban also resulted in negative outcomes such as reduced household incomes, increase in monocultures in lowlands, decreased manure production in a state that exclusively practices organic farming, spread of gregarious species, and a perceived increase in human wildlife conflict. This paper explores the impact of the traditional pastoral system on high elevation plant species in Lachen valley, one of the few regions of Sikkim where the grazing ban was not implemented. Experimental plots were laid in along an elevation gradient in grazed and ungrazed areas. Ungrazed areas are part of pastures that have been fenced off (preventing grazing) for over a decade and used by the locals for hay formation. I quantified plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (above ground net primary productivity ANPP). The difference method using movable exlosure cages was used in grazing areas to account for plant ANPP eaten and regrowth between grazing periods). The results demonstrate that grazing significantly contributes to greater plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (using above ground net primary productivity as an indicator). The multidimensional scaling and ANOSIM (Analysis of Similarities) pointed to significant differences in plant species assemblages in grazed and ungrazed areas. Further, ecosystem function is controlled by grazing, rainfall and elevation. Thus, the traditional transhumant pastoral system may enhance biodiversity and ecosystem function. I argue that a complete restriction of open grazing meet neither conservation nor socioeconomic goals. Evidence based policies are required to conserve the rich and vulnerable biodiversity of the region

Response of Socio-Ecological Systems to Climate Change in the Alpine Ecosystems of the Himalaya

The Himalaya, a region with a rich diversity of indigenous ethnicities and one of 35 global biodiversity hotspots, has been significantly impacted by climate change. Yet there are few studies on climate change impacts on the region owing to the lack of long-term measurements. There is however a wealth of information in the form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of the indigenous peoples inhabiting the region. I propose that in harsh environments like the high altitudes of Eastern Himalaya, natural resource-dependent indigenous communities and their local institutions have developed an intricate understanding of and responses to changes in their local climatic conditions and natural surroundings. This dissertation explores the response of indigenous people in the Himalaya to changing climatic conditions. I studied this at two scales— at the local scale, I used ethnographic tools to understand the response of people and their governing institutions. Second, at the regional scale, I studied the response of natural resources that the people use, particularly alpine grassland vegetation. The results show that climate change has significantly impacted biodiversity and the people of the region. People’s perceptions were remarkably consistent with the results on meteorological recordings, remotely sensed phenology data and range shifts. Analysis of meteorological data showed that temperatures have increased significantly especially during the colder seasons. Results from remotely sensed phenology showed that the start of the growing season for vegetation had advanced significantly (12.5 days per decade) while the end of the growing season showed a delay (3 days per decade). Areas below the treeline showed were more affected than above treeline zones. Range shifts in ethnobotanically important species were also recorded using secondary sources. In addition to climate change grazing also impacted alpine pastures, significantly increasing ecosystem structure and function. The results showed that contrary to narratives on indigenous people as passive observers of global phenomena like climate change, communities were actively adapting with the help of their TEK and indigenous institutions. I developed a framework that complemented the rigor of science with the wealth of TEK to suggest pathways for an improved policy response to climate change

Pastoralism in the highest peaks: Role of the traditional grazing systems in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function in the alpine Himalaya

Rangelands cover around half of the planet’s land mass and provide vital ecosystem services to over a quarter of humanity. The Himalayan rangelands, part of a global biodiversity hotspot is among the most threatened regions in the world. In rangelands of many developing nations policies banning grazing in protected areas is common practice. In 1998, the Indian state of Sikkim, in the Eastern Himalaya, enacted a grazing ban in response to growing anthropogenic pressure in pastures and forests that was presumably leading to degradation of biodiversity. Studies from the region demonstrate the grazing ban has had some beneficial results in the form of increased carbon stocks and regeneration of some species of conservation value but the ban also resulted in negative outcomes such as reduced household incomes, increase in monocultures in lowlands, decreased manure production in a state that exclusively practices organic farming, spread of gregarious species, and a perceived increase in human wildlife conflict. This paper explores the impact of the traditional pastoral system on high elevation plant species in Lachen valley, one of the few regions of Sikkim where the grazing ban was not implemented. Experimental plots were laid in along an elevation gradient in grazed and ungrazed areas. Ungrazed areas are part of pastures that have been fenced off (preventing grazing) for over a decade and used by the locals for hay formation. I quantified plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (above ground net primary productivity ANPP). The difference method using movable exlosure cages was used in grazing areas to account for plant ANPP eaten and regrowth between grazing periods). The results demonstrate that grazing significantly contributes to greater plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (using above ground net primary productivity as an indicator). The multidimensional scaling and ANOSIM (Analysis of Similarities) pointed to significant differences in plant species assemblages in grazed and ungrazed areas. Further, ecosystem function is controlled by grazing, rainfall and elevation. Thus, the traditional transhumant pastoral system may enhance biodiversity and ecosystem function. I argue that a complete restriction of open grazing meet neither conservation nor socioeconomic goals. Evidence based policies are required to conserve the rich and vulnerable biodiversity of the region.</jats:p

Climate Change Is Leading to Rapid Shifts in Seasonality in the Himalaya

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover

Correlated evolution of flower size and seed number in flowering plants (monocotyledons)

Kin selection theory predicts that a parent may minimize deleterious effects of competition among seeds developing within ovaries by increasing the genetic relatedness of seeds within an ovary. Alternatively, the number of developing seeds could be reduced to one or a few. It has also been suggested that single or few seeded fruits may be correlated with small flowers, and multi-ovulate ovaries or many seeded fruits may be associated with large flowers with specialized pollination mechanisms. We examined the correlation between flower size and seed number in 69 families of monocotyledons to assess if correlations are significant and independent of phylogeny.Facultad de Ciencia