Epidemic threshold and control in a dynamic network

In this paper we present a model describing susceptible-infected-susceptible-type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link activation can be locally constrained. We use and adapt an improved effective degree compartmental modeling framework recently proposed by Lindquist et al. [ J. Math Biol. 62 143 (2010)] and Marceau et al. [ Phys. Rev. E 82 036116 (2010)]. The resulting set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is solved numerically, and results are compared to those obtained using individual-based stochastic network simulation. We show that the ODEs display excellent agreement with simulation for the evolution of both the disease and the network and are able to accurately capture the epidemic threshold for a wide range of parameters. We also present an analytical R0 calculation for the dynamic network model and show that, depending on the relative time scales of the network evolution and disease transmission, two limiting cases are recovered: (i) the static network case when network evolution is slow and (ii) homogeneous random mixing when the network evolution is rapid. We also use our threshold calculation to highlight the dangers of relying on local stability analysis when predicting epidemic outbreaks on evolving networks

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND JAPANESE AGRICULTURAL IMPORT POLICIES

This analysis empirically evaluates a subset of Japanese agricultural policies during the 1970s and 1980s using the Trade Restrictiveness Index recently developed by Anderson and Neary. This index, though theoretically rigorous, is empirically demanding, resulting in relatively few applications. Inferences obtained from the index are in general accordance with policy changes and economic events over the period of analysis. Using 1970 as the base, the estimated TRI suggests that policy changes during 1970-87 resulted in moderately liberalized trade. Comparison with a conventional measure of trade distortion- producer and consumer subsidy equivalents (PSEs and CSEs)- reveals contrasting inference. This suggests the choice of empirical measures in evaluating trade policies in nontrivial.International Relations/Trade,

Dynamic Factor Demands for Aggregate Southeastern United States Agriculture

A four equation input demand system for aggregate Southeastern United States agriculture consistent with dynamic optimizing behavior is specified and estimated. Labor and materials are considered as variable inputs while land and capital are treated as quasi-fixed inputs. It is found that the adjustment rates for capital and land differ considerably and are interdependent. Further, the data appear consistent with the existence of an aggregate production technology and the hypothesized optimizing behavior.Farm Management,

Fishing Power Functions in Aggregate Bioeconomic Models

A method for estimating fishing power in the Beverton-Holt tradition in the absence of firm-level data is developed. This enables the construction of a standardized measure of fishing effort that can facilitate the analysis and implementation of various management alternatives. The methodology is applied to the Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish Fishery.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

The structures, binding energies and vibrational frequencies of Ca3 and Ca4: An application of the CCSD(T) method

The Ca3 and Ca4 metallic clusters have been investigated using state-of-the-art ab initio quantum mechanical methods. Large atomic natural orbital basis sets have been used in conjunction with the singles and doubles coupled-cluster (CCSD) method, a coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of connected triple excitations, denoted CCSD(T), and the multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) method. The equilibrium geometries, binding energies and harmonic vibrational frequencies have been determined with each of the methods so that the accuracy of the coupled-cluster methods may be assessed. Since the CCSD(T) method reproduces the MRCI results very well, cubic and quartic force fields of Ca3 and Ca4 have been determined using this approach and used to evaluate the fundamental vibrational frequencies. The infrared intensities of both the e' mode of Ca3 and the t2 mode of Ca4 are found to be small. The results obtained in this study are compared and contrasted with those from our earlier studies on small Be and Mg clusters

Comparison of the quadratic configuration interaction and coupled cluster approaches to electron correlation including the effect of triple excitations

The recently proposed quadratic configuration interaction (QCI) method is compared with the more rigorous coupled cluster (CC) approach for a variety of chemical systems. Some of these systems are well represented by a single-determinant reference function and others are not. The finite order singles and doubles correlation energy, the perturbational triples correlation energy, and a recently devised diagnostic for estimating the importance of multireference effects are considered. The spectroscopic constants of CuH, the equilibrium structure of cis-(NO)2 and the binding energies of Be3, Be4, Mg3, and Mg4 were calculated using both approaches. The diagnostic for estimating multireference character clearly demonstrates that the QCI method becomes less satisfactory than the CC approach as non-dynamical correlation becomes more important, in agreement with a perturbational analysis of the two methods and the numerical estimates of the triple excitation energies they yield. The results for CuH show that the differences between the two methods become more apparent as the chemical systems under investigation becomes more multireference in nature and the QCI results consequently become less reliable. Nonetheless, when the system of interest is dominated by a single reference determinant both QCI and CC give very similar results

Theoretical investigations of the structures and binding energies of Be(sub n) and Mg(sub n) (n = 3-5) clusters

Researchers determined the equilibrium geometries and binding energies of Be and Mg trimers, tetramers and pentamers using single and double excitation coupled cluster (CCSD) and complete active space self-consistent-field (CASSCF) multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) wave functions in conjunction with extended atomic basis sets. Best estimates of the cluster binding energies are 24, 83 and 110 kcal/mole for Be3, Be4 and Be5; and 9, 31 and 41 kcal/mole for Mg3, Mg4 and Mg5, respectively. A comparison of the MRCI and CCSD results shows that even the best single-reference approach (limited to single and double excitations) is not capable of quantitative accuracy in determining the binding energies of Be and Mg clusters

Differential Effects of Race and Poverty on Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions

This study is a continuation of an earlier study that examined hospitalization rates for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions, as a proxy for quality of care, and found evidence of a racial disparity among African American and White Medicare beneficiaries. The current study sought to determine whether neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) explained this disparity. Differences in rates of ACS hospitalizations by race were assessed using Cochran-Mantel Haenszel tests and Poisson regression. Unadjusted rate ratios for ACS hospitalization for African Americans vs. Whites were found to be higher in low poverty areas (rate ratio (RR)=1.13; 95% CI (1.08, 1.17)) than in high poverty areas (RR=0.97; 95% CI (0.89, 1.05)). After controlling for various indicators of area SES in multivariate analyses race differences in ACS hospitalization rates persisted. Rural neighborhoods and those with higher percent of non-high school graduates were associated with greater risk of ACS hospitalizations

Identification of criticality in neuronal avalanches: II. A theoretical and empirical investigation of the Driven case

The observation of apparent power laws in neuronal systems has led to the suggestion that the brain is at, or close to, a critical state and may be a self-organised critical system. Within the framework of self-organised criticality a separation of timescales is thought to be crucial for the observation of power-law dynamics and computational models are often constructed with this property. However, this is not necessarily a characteristic of physiological neural networks—external input does not only occur when the network is at rest/a steady state. In this paper we study a simple neuronal network model driven by a continuous external input (i.e. the model does not have an explicit separation of timescales from seeding the system only when in the quiescent state) and analytically tuned to operate in the region of a critical state (it reaches the critical regime exactly in the absence of input—the case studied in the companion paper to this article). The system displays avalanche dynamics in the form of cascades of neuronal firing separated by periods of silence. We observe partial scale-free behaviour in the distribution of avalanche size for low levels of external input. We analytically derive the distributions of waiting times and investigate their temporal behaviour in relation to different levels of external input, showing that the system’s dynamics can exhibit partial long-range temporal correlations. We further show that as the system approaches the critical state by two alternative ‘routes’, different markers of criticality (partial scale-free behaviour and long-range temporal correlations) are displayed. This suggests that signatures of criticality exhibited by a particular system in close proximity to a critical state are dependent on the region in parameter space at which the system (currently) resides