Vulnerability and adaptation options to climate change for rural livelihoods – a country-wide analysis for Uganda

Open Access Article; Published online: 15 July 2019Rural households in sub-Saharan Africa earn a substantial part of their living from rain-fed smallholder agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate change. There is a growing number of multi-level assessments on impacts and adaptation options for African smallholder systems under climate change, yet few studies translate impacts at the individual crop level to vulnerability at the household level, at which other livelihood activities need to be considered. Further, these assessments often use representative household types rather than considering the diversity of households for the identification of larger-scale patterns at sub-national and national levels. We developed a framework that combines crop suitability maps with a household food availability analysis to quantify household vulnerability to climate-related impacts on crop production and effects of adaptation options. The framework was tested for Uganda, identifying four hotspots of household vulnerability across the country. Hotspots were visually identified as areas with a relatively high concentration of vulnerable households, experiencing a decline in household crop suitability. About 30% of the households in the hotspots in (central) southwest were vulnerable to a combination of 3 °C temperature increase and 10% rainfall decline through declining suitability for several key crops (including highland banana, cassava, maize and sorghum). In contrast only 10% of the households in West Nile and central northern Uganda were negatively affected, and these were mainly affected by declining suitability of common beans. Households that depended on common beans and lived at lower elevations in West Nile and central north were vulnerable to a 2 to 3 °C temperature increase, while households located at higher elevations (above 1100–2000 m.a.s.l. depending on the crop) benefited from such an increase. Options for adaptation to increasing temperatures were most beneficial in northern Uganda, while drought-related adaptation options were more beneficial in the southwest. This framework provides a basis for decision makers who need information on where the vulnerable households are, what crops drive the vulnerability at household level and which intervention efforts are most beneficial in which regions

Mapping spatial distribution and geographic shifts of east African highland banana (Musa spp.) in Uganda

Open Access Journal; Published online: 17 Feb 2022East African highland banana (Musa acuminata genome group AAA-EA; hereafter referred to as banana) is critical for Uganda’s food supply, hence our aim to map current distribution and to understand changes in banana production areas over the past five decades. We collected banana presence/absence data through an online survey based on high-resolution satellite images and coupled this data with independent covariates as inputs for ensemble machine learning prediction of current banana distribution. We assessed geographic shifts of production areas using spatially explicit differences between the 1958 and 2016 banana distribution maps. The biophysical factors associated with banana spatial distribution and geographic shift were determined using a logistic regression model and classification and regression tree, respectively. Ensemble models were superior (AUC = 0.895; 0.907) compared to their constituent algorithms trained with 12 and 17 covariates, respectively: random forests (AUC = 0.883; 0.901), gradient boosting machines (AUC = 0.878; 0.903), and neural networks (AUC = 0.870; 0.890). The logistic regression model (AUC = 0.879) performance was similar to that for the ensemble model and its constituent algorithms. In 2016, banana cultivation was concentrated in the western (44%) and central (36%) regions, while only a small proportion was in the eastern (18%) and northern (2%) regions. About 60% of increased cultivation since 1958 was in the western region; 50% of decreased cultivation in the eastern region; and 44% of continued cultivation in the central region. Soil organic carbon, soil pH, annual precipitation, slope gradient, bulk density and blue reflectance were associated with increased banana cultivation while precipitation seasonality and mean annual temperature were associated with decreased banana cultivation over the past 50 years. The maps of spatial distribution and geographic shift of banana can support targeting of context-specific intensification options and policy advocacy to avert agriculture driven environmental degradation

Assessment of sustainable land use: linking land management practices to sustainable land use indicators

Open Access Article; Published online: 22 May 2021Land degradation threatens food production especially in smallholder farming systems predominant in sub-Saharan Africa. Monitoring the effects of agricultural land uses is critical to guide sustainable intensification (SI). There are various indicators of sustainable land use (SLU), but conventional methods to quantify their metrics are complex and difficult to deploy for rapid and large-scale assessments. Considering that SLU indicators are dependent on agricultural practices, which can be rapidly identified and quantified, we propose a framework for SLU assessment that includes indirect quantifications of prioritized indicators (crop productivity, soil organic carbon (SOC), acidification, erosion, nutrient balance) using agricultural practices; and a SLU index derived from the integration of these indicators. The application of the framework to a case study, consisting of 1319 farm plots in Tanzania, reveals that SOC and N balance were the main contributors to the SLU gap. Only 2.2% of the plots qualified as being used sustainably. The framework proved to be sensitive to practices commonly used by farmers, thus providing an opportunity to identify practices needed to revert land degradation. Further application of the framework as a decision-support tool can enhance the efficiency of SI investments, by targeting practices which effectively enhance food production and preserve land

A multi-objective model exploration of banana-canopy management and nutrient input scenarios for optimal banana-legume intercrop performance

Open Access Journal; Published online: 10 Feb 2021Bananas on smallholder farmers in the African Great Lakes region are often pruned to illuminate shorter understory intercrops, reducing overall farm profitability. The impact of this practice on environmental and nutritional indicators are not known. This study determined the effect of this practice on operating profit, protein yield, soil organic matter (SOM) balance, and nitrogen input; and the management options for optimal performance of the intercrops. Alternative scenarios for improving soil nutrient balances of the system were also explored. Data from an experiment intercropping bush beans with banana at three leaf pruning levels (i.e., retaining all, seven, and four leaves) was used as the input for the multi-objective optimization FarmDESIGN model. Retention of four functional leaves mimicked a worst-case scenario observed on farms. Banana and bush bean monocrops served as controls. The model maximized operating profit, protein yield, and SOM, and minimized nitrogen input. Nutrient input scenarios in which (i) farmyard manure was only applied at planting (business as usual (‘BaU’)); and ‘BaU’, was combined with (ii) hedges, (iii) inorganic fertilizers, (iv) hedges and goat manure, (v) hedges and inorganic fertilizers, (vi) inorganic fertilizers and goat manure, and (vii) hedges, inorganic fertilizers, and goat manure, were also explored. Severe banana leaf pruning reduced profitability, SOM, and protein yield, although it’s less nutrient demanding. In contrast, the “un-pruned banana-bush bean intercrop” and “sole banana crop” had a higher profitability, SOM balance, and protein yield, whereas they demand more soil nutrients. No profound improvements in operating profit, SOM balance, and protein yield occurred for ‘BaU’, while hedges resulted in mild improvements. Profound improvements in all objectives occurred with the addition of the inorganic fertilizers, while goat manure resulted in a high SOM balance and N input. For ‘BaU’ and hedges, “severely pruned banana-bush bean intercrop” dominated the optimal solution set for improving farm performance. In contrast, when the inorganic fertilizers and/or goat manure was introduced, “un-pruned banana-bush bean intercrop” and/or “sole un-pruned banana crop” were the optimal solutions. The study confirms severe leaf pruning to negatively impact profitability, while the more profitable un-pruned crop options are unsustainable without external input of nutrients. Thus, investments in external inputs are crucial for a sustainable banana-intercrop system. The FarmDESIGN model made the trade-offs and synergies in this complex intercrop system explicit, thus was also helpful for field-level decision making

Small farms and development in sub‑Saharan Africa: farming for food, for income or for lack of better options?

Open Access Article; Published online: 15 Oct 2021Most food in sub-Saharan Africa is produced on small farms. Using large datasets from household surveys conducted across many countries, we find that the majority of farms are less than 1 ha, much smaller than previous estimates. Farms are larger in farming systems in drier climates. Through a detailed analysis of food self-sufficiency, food and nutrition security, and income among households from divergent farming systems in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda, we reveal marked contrasts in food security and household incomes. In the south of Mali, where cotton is an important cash crop, almost all households are food secure, and almost half earn a living income. Yet, in a similar agroecological environment in northern Ghana, only 10% of households are food secure and none earn a living income. Surprisingly, the extent of food insecurity and poverty is almost as great in densely-populated locations in the Ethiopian and Tanzanian highlands that are characterised by much better soils and two cropping seasons a year. Where populations are less dense, such as in South-west Uganda, a larger proportion of the households are food self-sufficient and poverty is less prevalent. In densely-populated Central Malawi, a combination of a single cropping season a year and small farms results in a strong incidence of food insecurity and poverty. These examples reveal a strong interplay between population density, farm size, market access, and agroecological potential on food security and household incomes. Within each location, farm size is a major determinant of food self-sufficiency and a household’s ability to rise above the living income threshold. Closing yield gaps strongly increases the proportion of households that are food self-sufficient. Yet in four of the locations (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ghana and Malawi), land is so constraining that only 42–53% of households achieve food self-sufficiency, and even when yield gaps are closed only a small proportion of households can achieve a living income. While farming remains of central importance to household food security and income, our results help to explain why off-farm employment is a must for many. We discuss these results in relation to sub-Saharan Africa’s increasing population, likely agricultural expansion, and agriculture’s role in future economic development

East African highland bananas (Musa spp. AAA-EA) 'worry' more about potassium deficiency than drought stress

Drought stress, potassium (K) and nitrogen (N) deficiencies are major constraints to rain-fed East African highland banana (EAHB) production in Uganda. It was hypothesised that the reduction in fresh bunch mass and increase in dry matter (DM) allocation to corms with drought stress, K and N deficiency is additive. Individual plant measurements at harvest from two field trials in central and south western Uganda were analyzed to evaluate effects of cumulative rainfall (CRF) received 365 days from sucker emergence, mineral K and N inputs on EAHB bunch yields. Dry matter content in aerial shoot (leaves and pseudostems) relative to that in the subterranean corm was also analyzed to evaluate DM allocation plasticity due to drought stress, K and N deficiency. This was verified with allometric analysis using pre-harvest stage plants from farms of known K and N nutritional status and plants from a screen house drought stress pot trial in Uganda. Dry matter production and yields were mainly driven by K interacting with CRF. Within 12 months, K input (250-600 kg K ha(-1) yr(-1)) increased bunch yield from 8 to 15 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) irrespective of whether dry (CRF = 1100 mm) conditions prevailed, possibly due to K-mediated osmotic adjustment under dry conditions. Without K input, wet conditions increased bunch yield from 6 to 8 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) while dry conditions decreased it from 6 to 4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) within 12 months. Total DM and its distribution between the biomass structures followed similar trends. Nitrogen input (150-400 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) neither affected bunch yield nor DM allocation at harvest stage. At pre-harvest stage, reduction in DM allocation to the corm per unit increase in total DM was 14-22% significantly lower with N and/or K deficiency compared with that under sufficient K and N. Drought stress per se had no effect on DM allocation but enhanced DM allocation shifts due to K deficiency. Drought-stressed EAHB thus increase DM allocation to subterranean structures only if K-deficient, unlike responses reported for other plant species. Potassium nutrition is perhaps a more viable entry point for mitigation of drought stress in EAHB cropping systems than irrigation but this requires further agronomic and economic evaluation. It may be important to account for carbon allocated to osmotic adjustment for realistic simulation of water- and K-limited growth in EAHB. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

East African highland bananas (Musa spp. AAAEA) worry more about potassium deficiency than drought stress

Drought stress, potassium (K) and nitrogen (N) deficiencies are major constraints to rain-fed East African highland banana (EAHB) production in Uganda. It was hypothesised that the reduction in fresh bunch mass and increase in dry matter (DM) allocation to corms with drought stress, K and N deficiency is additive. Individual plant measurements at harvest from two field trials in central and south western Uganda were analyzed to evaluate effects of cumulative rainfall (CRF) received 365 days from sucker emergence, mineral K and N inputs on EAHB bunch yields. Dry matter content in aerial shoot (leaves and pseudostems) relative to that in the subterranean corm was also analyzed to evaluate DM allocation plasticity due to drought stress, K and N deficiency. This was verified with allometric analysis using pre-harvest stage plants from farms of known K and N nutritional status and plants from a screen house drought stress pot trial in Uganda. Dry matter production and yields were mainly driven by K interacting with CRF. Within 12 months, K input (250–600 kg K ha−1 yr−1) increased bunch yield from 8 to 15 Mg ha−1 yr−1 irrespective of whether dry (CRF < 1100 mm) or wet (CRF ≥ 1100 mm) conditions prevailed, possibly due to K-mediated osmotic adjustment under dry conditions. Without K input, wet conditions increased bunch yield from 6 to 8 Mg ha−1 yr−1 while dry conditions decreased it from 6 to 4 Mg ha−1 yr−1 within 12 months. Total DM and its distribution between the biomass structures followed similar trends. Nitrogen input (150–400 kg N ha−1 yr−1) neither affected bunch yield nor DM allocation at harvest stage. At pre-harvest stage, reduction in DM allocation to the corm per unit increase in total DM was 14–22% significantly lower with N and/or K deficiency compared with that under sufficient K and N. Drought stress per se had no effect on DM allocation but enhanced DM allocation shifts due to K deficiency. Drought-stressed EAHB thus increase DM allocation to subterranean structures only if K-deficient, unlike responses reported for other plant species. Potassium nutrition is perhaps a more viable entry point for mitigation of drought stress in EAHB cropping systems than irrigation but this requires further agronomic and economic evaluation. It may be important to account for carbon allocated to osmotic adjustment for realistic simulation of water- and K-limited growth in EAHB

Ky’osimba Onaanya: understanding productivity of East African Highland banana

Over 30 million people in East Africa depend on East African highland bananas for food and income. The bananas are grown with limited additions of nutrients and no irrigation, despite widespread poor soil fertility and regular dry seasons. This thesis describes the effect of increasing rainfall and application of potassium and nitrogen fertilizers on banana growth and yields. In areas that receive less than 1100 mm of rainfall per year, additional rainfall increases yields by 65%. Application of potassium increases yields by 88%, while nitrogen is not required. A framework for computing banana growth and yield in response to the amount of water stored in the soil is described. Where the soil water storage capacity is low, mulching increases yields by 10% but it has no effect in areas where the soil water storage is high. This framework is envisaged to guide improvements in banana management and productivity in East Africa

Mineral fertilizers improve the sensory quality of East African Highland bananas (Musa AAA-EA, cv. Kisansa)

Some farmers in Uganda believe that fertilizers negatively affect the sensory attributes of cooking type bananas. This belief may hamper the adoption of fertilizers. To verify the validity of this belief, bunches (Musa AAA-EA, cv. ‘Kisansa’) from fertilized (i.e. N-P-K-Mg-Zn-S-B-Mo) and non-fertilized plots were harvested from on-station trials in central (Wakiso) and southwestern (Ntungamo) Uganda. Samples were anonymously tagged for preparation (boiled or steamed) and sensory evaluation by farmers from southwestern (n=33) and central Uganda (n=35). Data were analyzed in STATA using Tau-b rank test for proportions, median ranks and odds ratios. The frequency of evaluators ranking fertilized steamed bananas highly (i.e. ‘Best’ or ‘Second-best’) was significantly (P=0.05) higher (60%) than for non-fertilized bananas (42%). The opposite was true for boiled bananas (fertilized, 43% vs. non-fertilized, 60%). Irrespective of site of cultivation and evaluators’ origin, gender or age, fertilizers significantly (P=0.05) improved the appearance, odor, softness and acceptability of steamed bananas. For boiled bananas, attributes did not significantly differ between fertilizer treatments, except for appearance, which was significantly inferior (P=0.05) for fertilized bananas. This study shows that the belief that fertilizers negatively affect the sensory attributes of cooking type bananas is generally incorrect. Only when boiled, fertilized bananas appeared less attractive than non-fertilized bananas. The dominant and traditional way of preparing cooking type bananas in Uganda is through steaming (i.e., matooke). We recommend the application of fertilizer, as it will not only positively affect yield, but also the sensory quality of cooking type bananas