Long-term ash dispersal dataset of the Sakurajima Taisho eruption for ashfall disaster countermeasure

Abstract. A large volcanic eruption can generate large amounts ofash which affect the socio-economic activities of surrounding areas, affecting airline transportation, socio-economics activities, and humanhealth. Accumulated ashfall has devastating impacts on areas surrounding thevolcano and in other regions, and eruption scale and weather conditions mayescalate ashfall hazards to wider areas. It is crucial to discover placeswith a high probability of exposure to ashfall deposition. Here, as areference for ashfall disaster countermeasures, we present a datasetcontaining the estimated distributions of the ashfall deposit and airborneash concentration, obtained from a simulation of ash dispersal following alarge-scale explosive volcanic eruption. We selected the Taisho (1914)eruption of the Sakurajima volcano, as our case study. This was thestrongest eruption in Japan in the last century, and our study provides abaseline for a worst-case scenario. We employed one eruption scenario (OES)approach by replicating the actual event under various extended weatherconditions to show how it would affect contemporary Japan. We generated anash dispersal dataset by simulating the ash transport of the Taisho eruptionscenario using a volcanic ash dispersal model and meteorological reanalysisdata for 64 years (1958–2021). We explain the dataset production andprovide the dataset in multiple formats for broader audiences. We examinethe validity of the dataset, its limitations, and its uncertainties.Countermeasure strategies can be derived from this dataset to reduceashfall risk. The dataset is available at the DesignSafe-CI Data Depot:https://www.designsafe-ci.org/data/browser/public/designsafe.storage.published/PRJ-2848v2or through the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-vw5f-t920by selecting Version 2 (Rahadianto and Tatano, 2020)

The effects of hazard risk information on locations of firms by industry in tsunami-prone coastal areas

The construction of seawalls changes the risk of tsunami inundation and the locations of firms behind the seawalls. In order to estimate the benefits of seawalls and to design land use planning behind seawalls, it is necessary to know the impact of risk reduction on the location of firms. To capture such impacts, we estimate the effects of changes in tsunami inundation risk information on the number of firms behind the seawalls. The data is from Japanese areas with a high possibility of a tsunami. There are regional fixed effects by industry and spatial heterogeneities in risks due to the topographic conditions. We first rigorously derive a fixed-effects model in uncertain situations with expected profits of firms, and theoretically find that, unlike in situations of certainty, we should factor in the interaction between regional fixed effects and the change in risks besides the usual regional fixed effects. Our empirical estimation finds that awareness of a high inundation risk has a negative impact on industries with demand in a wide range of areas, such as manufacturing and wholesale, but no impact on industries with localized demand, such as education and clinics

The 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction: Expanding the Platform for Bridging Science and Policy Making

The Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes held its 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan, 19–21 March, 2017. The Global Alliance seeks to contribute to enhancing disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster resilience through the collaboration of research organizations around the world. The summit aim was to expand the platform for bridging science and policy making by evaluating the evidence base needed to meet the expected outcomes and actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and its Science and Technology Roadmap. The summit reflected the international nature of collaborative research and action. A pre-conference questionnaire filled out by Global Alliance members identified 323 research projects that are indicative of current research. These were categorized to support seven parallel discussion sessions related to the Sendai Framework priorities for action. Four discussion sessions focused on research that aims to deepen the understanding of disaster risks. Three cross-cutting sessions focused on research that is aimed at the priorities for action on governance, resilience, and recovery. Discussion summaries were presented in plenary sessions in support of outcomes for widely enhancing the science and policy of DRR

Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters, but the models have not been fully validated by applying them to real disasters. This study focuses on validating a model for use in a short-run case in which the functional recovery of infrastructure and businesses occurred on a time scale of a few months. A special attempt is made to determine the parameter values of elasticity of substitutions, which play an important role in the effect on supply chains. In this study, a spatial CGE model, in which Japan is divided into nine regions, is constructed and applied to the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Through this application, the best estimates of the elasticity parameters generated relatively consistent estimates of production change compared with the observed change, both in severely affected regions and in other regions

災害が及ぼす経済への長期的影響に関する一考察 −再建時の資金調達に着目して−

本研究は，災害後の再建活動にかかる資金調達に着目し，災害が負債の増加という形で被災地域に長期的な影響をもたらす可能性を指摘する。そのために近年の災害のケーススタディを行うとともに，過去に受けた災害の被害の大きさと現在抱える負債の大きさの関係について回帰分析を行う。また経済発展の状況の違いによる長期的効果の現れ方の違いについても明らかにする。本研究から、先進国・途上国ともに, 過去に大きな災害を受けた地域が 長期的に大きな 負債を抱える傾向にあることが示唆された。また低所得国のグループでは平均的に大きな負債を有する一方で、それが災害によって増加する効果は高所得国に比べ比較的大きくないことが示唆された。また その影響を軽減するのに 国際援助や海外からの送金が貢献する可能性が示された。This paper aims at pointing out that natural disasters and the associated post-disaster reconstruction efforts can give rise to negative impacts over the long term in affected economies in terms of increase in external debt. We conducted a regression analysis and found that, regardless of the level of development, countries with larger observed disaster losses tend to accumulate more external debt over the long term. We also examined how the level of development affects such longer term factors. Countries in the low income group tended to have higher levels of external debt on average than high income countries, yet these levels were relatively less affected by disasters. Finally, this research indicates that remittance inflows and international aid tend to reduce the external debt burden in disaster prone countries over the long term.本研究は，災害後の再建活動にかかる資金調達に着目し，災害が負債の増加という形で被災地域に長期的な影響をもたらす可能性を指摘する。そのために近年の災害のケーススタディを行うとともに，過去に受けた災害の被害の大きさと現在抱える負債の大きさの関係について回帰分析を行う。また経済発展の状況の違いによる長期的効果の現れ方の違いについても明らかにする。本研究から、先進国・途上国ともに, 過去に大きな災害を受けた地域が 長期的に大きな 負債を抱える傾向にあることが示唆された。また低所得国のグループでは平均的に大きな負債を有する一方で、それが災害によって増加する効果は高所得国に比べ比較的大きくないことが示唆された。また その影響を軽減するのに 国際援助や海外からの送金が貢献する可能性が示された。This paper aims at pointing out that natural disasters and the associated post-disaster reconstruction efforts can give rise to negative impacts over the long term in affected economies in terms of increase in external debt. We conducted a regression analysis and found that, regardless of the level of development, countries with larger observed disaster losses tend to accumulate more external debt over the long term. We also examined how the level of development affects such longer term factors. Countries in the low income group tended to have higher levels of external debt on average than high income countries, yet these levels were relatively less affected by disasters. Finally, this research indicates that remittance inflows and international aid tend to reduce the external debt burden in disaster prone countries over the long term

Estimation of Production Capacity Loss Rate after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011

This research aims to investigate a method for estimating the production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors damaged by a disaster, such as an earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear radiation, particularly the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. PCLR is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by a disaster. In particular, this paper proposes a method of PCLR estimation that considers the two main causes of capacity losses as observed from past earthquake disasters, namely damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems. To achieve the quantitative estimation of PCLR, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors for capturing the impact of lifeline disruptions have been adopted, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to the case study of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the PCLR in various industrial sectors is estimated; the estimated PCLR in the manufacturing sectors are then compared to the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of the individual sectors

生活リスクの中の洪水リスク軽減 : ムンバイからの知見

インドの経済的な中心都市であるムンバイは2005年6月26日に豪雨によって完全に機能を停止した。2005年の洪水でもっとも深刻な被害を受けた地域は、ムンバイの中でももっとも脆弱な区域であり、最も貧しい区域である。ムンバイの人口の60％以上がそのような脆弱な居住地域やスラムに暮らしている。そうした地域は限られた社会経済的資源、生産資本しか所有しないことにより非常に高いリスクの下で生活を営んでいる。伝統的な災害リスクマネジメント研究は日常生活の問題と災害へのプリペアドネスの間の関係について研究をしてきた。本研究では、地域コミュニティの洪水リスクがその生活リスクに非常に密接に関係していると仮説づける。本研究はムンバイのスラムに暮らす住民の生活リスクに及ぼす洪水の影響を示す。また、現在の生活リスクが住民の災害リスクにどのように影響を与えているのかを示す。Mumbai, the financial capital of India, came to complete halt due to heavy rainfall in one day on 26th July, 2005.The severest affected areas of 2005 flood are the poorest section of the city that are forced to live in the most vulnerable parts of the city. More than 60 percent of Mumbai populations live in such vulnerable settlement or slum. Limited economic and social resources and capital often put their livelihood itself into risks. The conventional studies on disaster risk management seldom consider linkage between livelihood issues and disaster preparedness. In our study we hypothesize that local community flood risks are very much related with their livelihood issues. The present study shows the impact of flood on the livelihood risks of the slum dwellers of Mumbai and also it shows how the exiting livelihood risks impinge the disaster risks of the people.インドの経済的な中心都市であるムンバイは2005年6月26日に豪雨によって完全に機能を停止した。2005年の洪水でもっとも深刻な被害を受けた地域は、ムンバイの中でももっとも脆弱な区域であり、最も貧しい区域である。ムンバイの人口の60％以上がそのような脆弱な居住地域やスラムに暮らしている。そうした地域は限られた社会経済的資源、生産資本しか所有しないことにより非常に高いリスクの下で生活を営んでいる。伝統的な災害リスクマネジメント研究は日常生活の問題と災害へのプリペアドネスの間の関係について研究をしてきた。本研究では、地域コミュニティの洪水リスクがその生活リスクに非常に密接に関係していると仮説づける。本研究はムンバイのスラムに暮らす住民の生活リスクに及ぼす洪水の影響を示す。また、現在の生活リスクが住民の災害リスクにどのように影響を与えているのかを示す。Mumbai, the financial capital of India, came to complete halt due to heavy rainfall in one day on 26th July, 2005.The severest affected areas of 2005 flood are the poorest section of the city that are forced to live in the most vulnerable parts of the city. More than 60 percent of Mumbai populations live in such vulnerable settlement or slum. Limited economic and social resources and capital often put their livelihood itself into risks. The conventional studies on disaster risk management seldom consider linkage between livelihood issues and disaster preparedness. In our study we hypothesize that local community flood risks are very much related with their livelihood issues. The present study shows the impact of flood on the livelihood risks of the slum dwellers of Mumbai and also it shows how the exiting livelihood risks impinge the disaster risks of the people

韓国における水害のリスクマネジメント概要とリスクコミュニケーション

洪水リスクが世界的に高まっている。最近では韓国においても台風と局地的な大雨による経済的な損失が大きくなっ ている。韓国の災害に関する損害の80％が水害によるものである。韓国では災害マネジメントと防災計画を、政府機関、地方政府や政府投資機関ごとに行っているが、毎年同じ時期に水害によって犠牲者が発生している。したがって、 防災に関する協力システムを構成することが重要である。Flood risks are rising in many parts of the world. Recently, due to typhoons and localized torrential downpours, the scale of economic loss over the Korean Peninsula is increasing. The damage caused by the heavy rain and the typhoon is 80% of total in Korea. Korea's disaster management and prevention plans are implemented by each ministry and regional government, and the government-invested organizations. But It flooded annually at about the same time of year and make the casualtie. The most important point is making a collaborative system for disaster prevention.洪水リスクが世界的に高まっている。最近では韓国においても台風と局地的な大雨による経済的な損失が大きくなっ ている。韓国の災害に関する損害の80％が水害によるものである。韓国では災害マネジメントと防災計画を、政府機関、地方政府や政府投資機関ごとに行っているが、毎年同じ時期に水害によって犠牲者が発生している。したがって、 防災に関する協力システムを構成することが重要である。Flood risks are rising in many parts of the world. Recently, due to typhoons and localized torrential downpours, the scale of economic loss over the Korean Peninsula is increasing. The damage caused by the heavy rain and the typhoon is 80% of total in Korea. Korea's disaster management and prevention plans are implemented by each ministry and regional government, and the government-invested organizations. But It flooded annually at about the same time of year and make the casualtie. The most important point is making a collaborative system for disaster prevention