Recent Indonesian economic development and the urgent need to remove key growth obstacles

Turbulence has been the hallmark of the course of Indonesian economic growth. Indonesia was dubbed a "chronic drop-out in economic performance in 1968, but it then immediately embarked on a growth spurt. Just as accolades to Indonesia's economic pragmatism and economic orthodoxy were reaching a new height, Indonesia's economy shattered during the Asian financial crisis of 199799. Indonesia has once again risen phoenix-like from that disaster, and the bounce back has been resilient in the face of the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite the commendable progress, however, its growth seems to be hindered. Indonesia must now tackle the two most important constraints to its continued high growth: logistics and infrastructure

PENGANGGURAN STRUKTURAL: FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI DAN DINAMIKANYA

This paper investigates the persistence of unemployment in Indonesia, by decomposing unemployment into structural and cyclical unemployment and exploring its determinants and dynamics. The result shows that currently Indonesia is experiencing structural unemployment, which is caused by structural change of Indonesian economy. Factors contributing to the structural unemployment include sectoral labor productivity and sectoral real wage, beside specific skill required by the sectors. The study reveals the need for a good economic planning to avoid unemployment in the future. JEL Classification: J21, J23, J31 Keywords: Structural unemployment, labor productivity, real wag

KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA: PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN DAN PERUBAHAN STRUKTUR EKONOMI

Poverty level of Indonesia remains high while the economy experiences relatively high and steady growth. The asymmetry is investigated, probing the poverty and economic growth-structure linkages at sectoral level. The result shows that agriculture sector is the highest contributors of poverty at almost all regions. It is also the most responsive sector, with its high growth elasticity of poverty reduction. On the other hand economic structure seems to have varying impacts on poverty at sectoral level. JEL Classification: O10, O49 Keywords:Poverty, economic growth, structure, sectoral level

DAMPAK PENINGKATAN PEMBAYARAN NON-TUNAI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP PENGENDALIAN MONETER DI INDONESIA

Non-cash payments have been increasing significantly, followed by its substitution and efficiency effects. Cash payment is substituted, inducing decrease of cash holding by economic agents, while on the other hand more money enters the banking system. The increase of non-cash payments also cuts transaction costs, and the economy runs more efficiently. Using Structural Cointegrating VAR, its impacts on the economy are investigated. The result shows that cash holding decrease, while money stock M1 and M2 increase. The increase of non-cash payments also induces GDP growth and slight price decrease. Its implication to monetary policy is also analyzed, showing decrease of BI rate and monetary policy cost. JEL Classification: E41, E51, E58 Keywords: non-cash, payment system, money deman

PENGARUH EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP RISIKO SEKTORAL DI INDONESIA

The disintermediation of Indonesian banking is probably due to the high level of the real sector risk. This paper analyzes the profile and the dynamics of this sectoral risk established from the median of individual firm's default risks. We measure the firm's default risk with the KMV’s Expected Default Frequency (EDF). The data shows a high correlation coefficient among the sectoral risk, and through the generalized impulse response, the interrelation of the sectoral risk is revealed. The macroeconomic variables also affect the sectoral risk. The positive shock of the BI rate, the nominal exchange rate or the inflation, causes an increase of the sectoral risk. On the other hand, a positive shock of the economic growth causes a decrease on the sectoral risk. Keywords: Sectoral risk, default risk, probability to default JEL Classification: G30, G3

PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Indonesia. The model applied considers both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply interaction and the impact of the exchange rate volatility channeled through the investment and trade. The result shows the negative impact of the exchange rate volatility either in nominal or in real, on the economic growth. Both nominal and real exchange rate volatility dampens the investment. However, the nominal exchange rate volatility lowers import while the real one lowers export and at the other side boosts import. Keywords: Economic growth, exchange rate. JEL Classification: F31, O11, O4

Nowcasting Household Consumption and Investment in Indonesia

It is imperative for the Central Bank to know the current state of the economy as the basis underlying projections of future economic conditions. To that end, current economic conditions, in this case household consumption and investment, could be predicted using nowcasting. In this research, a nowcasting model was developed for the two aforementioned macroeconomic variables using a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). The indicators used when nowcasting household consumption included: motor vehicle sales, total deposits, the lending rate on consumer loans, M1 and the rupiah exchange rate (NEER), while the indicators used for nowcasting investment included: cement sales, motor vehicle production, electric energy consumption, outstanding loans and M1. Accuracy testing showed that the nowcasting model for household consumption using DFM was sound, while the forecast error for nowcasting investment was significant but remained below the benchmark

Sunfish’s (Mola spp.) Habitat Characteristics on their Appearance at Dive Tourism Depths in Nusa Penida Waters, Bali

The sunfish or mola fish (Mola spp.) is one of marine tourism’ icon in Nusa Penida waters where they appear seasonally. This study was aimed to observe the habitat characteristics of mola fish at the depths of diving tourism where they are visible. The research was conducted from July to December 2019 using survey and descriptive methods to obtain information of mola fish animal linked to habitat conditions. On its appearance data on depths, temperatures, currents, and the presence of symbiotic fishes were observed directly assisted by dive center operators. By comparing the morphological characteristics shown photographically, it is assumed that mola fish in study area is composed by two species, M. alexandrini and M. mola. The highest individual record was in September and decreasing along the incoming months. Mola fish prefers calm deeper water with lower temperatures coincides with the presence of cleaning reef fishes.

PERBANKAN SYARIAH DAN PERBANKAN BERDASARKAN BUNGA: MANAKAH YANG LEBIH OPTIMAL?

Unlike the conventional interest-base bank, the Islamic banks use both equity financing with profit sharing and debt-like financing with mark-up, ad at the funding side they use both investment scheme with revenue sharing and deposit scheme with rewards. The conventional bank use debt financing with interest and at the funding side use the deposit scheme with interest as well. The optimality of the two banking systems will be tested to determine which one is more optimal in terms of the wealth of the bank shareholder, the welfare of the entrepreneur, and the welfare of the depositors. Using a multiperiod static optimization approach, the results shows that in the interest-based banking is more optimal in terms of the shareholder wealth and the depositor’s welfare, while the Islamic banking is more optimal in terms of the entrepreneur welfare. Keywords : sistem perbankan, bank syariah, bunga, bagi hasil, mudharabah, wadi'ah JEL Classification : G21, P5

Bagi Hasil: Konsep dan Analisis

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