The generation of tsunamis

Tsunamis are gravity-driven water waves. Most are generated by vertical displacement of the seabed that propagates through the water column to the sea surface. The resulting elevated surface wave collapses through gravity and then propagates outward from the source. Dispersion of the initial wave generates a multiple wave train. Tsunamis are mainly (∼80%) generated by earthquakes, but other mechanisms include subaerial and submarine landslides and volcanic collapse and eruption. Other, less frequent, tsunami mechanisms include bolide (asteroid) impact and weather events (meteotsunamis), but these are generated at the water surface, respectively, from external impact and from wind friction. The magnitude of a tsunamigenic earthquake has the main control on the tsunami, although “tsunami” earthquakes generate tsunamis much larger than expected from their earthquake source magnitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake mechanisms include interplate boundary rupture, splay faulting, and intraplate rupture. Landslide tsunami mechanisms include slumps and translational failures that may be initiated from either the bottom or the top. Landslide volume, water depth, and initial acceleration are the main controls on tsunami magnitude, although other factors such as the failure mechanism and the location of initiation are influential. There are three main aspects of a tsunami; (i) initial wave generation, (ii) propagation, and (iii) onland run-up. Initial wave generation from earthquakes is mainly from seabed vertical displacement, and a rule of thumb suggests that in most instances the maximum initial wave elevation is up to twice this. The maximum initial wave elevation from a landslide tsunami is theoretically determined by the ocean depth and thus could be thousands of meters. Local tsunami run-up elevations vary with source mechanism and vary considerably. Although dependent on local bathymetry and topography, these are likely to be more elevated and focused from submarine landslides than from earthquakes. The different mechanisms generate different tsunami wave frequencies; these determine travel distances, with the low frequency tsunamis from earthquakes traveling much farther than tsunamis from landslides, which are much higher frequency. Final onland run-up is mainly dependent on source mechanism as well as local offshore bathymetry and coastal topography

The importance of geologists and geology in tsunami science and tsunami hazard

Up until the late 1980s geology contributed very little to the study of tsunamis because most were generated by earthquakes which were mainly the domain of seismologists. In 1987–88 however, sediments deposited as tsunamis flooded land were discovered. Subsequently they began to be widely used to identify prehistorical tsunami events, providing a longer-term record than previously available from historical accounts. The sediments offered an opportunity to better define tsunami frequency that could underpin improved risk assessment. When over 2200 people died from a catastrophic tsunami in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1998, and a submarine landslide was controversially proven to be the mechanism, marine geologists provided the leadership that led to the identification of this previously unrecognized danger. The catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004 confirmed the critical importance of sedimentological research in understanding tsunamis. In 2011, the Japan earthquake and tsunami further confirmed the importance of both sediments in tsunami hazard mitigation and the dangers from seabed sediment failures in tsunami generation. Here we recount the history of geological involvement in tsunami science and its importance in advancing understanding of the extent, magnitude and nature of the hazard from tsunamis

Tsunamis: geology, hazards and risks: introduction

A decade or so ago, if you had asked almost anyone in Europe or North America, they might not have recognized the word ‘tsunami’. The enormous and tragic event that swept across the shores of the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, followed only a few years later by the devastating tsunami caused by the March 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake off Japan, both with appalling loss of life, changed all that. Today, the words ‘tsunami warning issued’ seem to appear frequently on international ‘breaking news’, showing the extent to which we have become sensitized to the triggers that launch these deadly, but terrifyingly spectacular, natural events. Yet, great tsunamis and the tectonic events that cause them have not suddenly become more frequent. The historical records of old civilizations contain accounts of major inundations reaching back hundreds or thousands of years and sometimes even warnings to future generations – valuable, if they are heeded. What has changed, and has consequently raised the profile of tsunamis, is the exponential growth in world population over the last few 100 years, the great majority of whom live in coastal areas and are consequently exposed to hazard, along with instant global communication, which brings every large earthquake on Earth's plate margins directly and immediately onto our screens

New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

The Mw 7.5 earthquake that struck Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, on September 28, 2018, was rapidly followed by coastal landslides and destructive tsunami waves within Palu Bay. Here, we present new tsunami modeling that supports a dual source mechanism from the supershear strike-slip earthquake and coastal landslides. Up until now the tsunami mechanism: earthquake, coastal landslides, or a combination of both, has remained controversial, because published research has been inconclusive; with some studies explaining most observations from the earthquake and others the landslides. Major challenges are the numerous different earthquake source models used in tsunami modeling, and that landslide mechanisms have been hypothetical. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using three published earthquake models, alone and in combination with seven coastal landslides identified in earlier work and confirmed by field and bathymetric evidence which, from video evidence, produced significant waves. To generate and propagate the tsunamis, we use a combination of two wave models, the 3D non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE and the 2D Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD. Both models are nonlinear and address the physics of wave frequency dispersion critical in modeling tsunamis from landslides, which here, in NHWAVE are modeled as granular material. Our combined, earthquake and coastal landslide, simulations recreate all observed tsunami runups, except those in the southeast of Palu Bay where they were most elevated (10.5 m), as well as observations made in video recordings and at the Pantoloan Port tide gauge located within Palu Bay. With regard to the timing of tsunami impact on the coast, results from the dual landslide/earthquake sources, particularly those using the supershear earthquake models are in good agreement with reconstructed time series at most locations. Our new work shows that an additional tsunami mechanism is also necessary to explain the elevated tsunami observations in the southeast of Palu Bay. Using partial information from bathymetric surveys in this area we show that an additional, submarine landslide here, when simulated with the other coastal slides, and the supershear earthquake mechanism better explains the observations. This supports the need for future marine geology work in this area

Convective rear-flank downdraft as driver for meteotsunami along English Channel and North Sea coasts 28–29 May 2017

We examine the physical processes that led to the meteotsunami observed along the English Channel and North Sea coasts on 29 May 2017. It was most notably reported along the Dutch coast, but also observed on tide gauges from the Channel Islands to the coast of Germany, and also those in eastern England. From an assessment of multiple observations, including rain radar, LIDAR, satellite, surface observations and radiosonde reports we conclude that the event was driven by a rear flank downdraft in association with a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This downdraft, from a medium level or elevated MCS, led to a hydrostatically forced internal or ducted gravity wave below the MCS. The gravity wave was manifested by a marked rise and fall in pressure, a meso-high, which then interacted with the sea surface through Proudman resonance causing a measured wave of close to 0.9 m in amplitude, and an estimated wave run-up on Dutch beaches of 2 m. Through examination of existing research, we show that the basic assumptions here relating to the formation of the Dutch meteotsunami are consistent with previously described physical processes, and confirm the correlation between the speed of the ocean wave and medium level steering winds. This raises the possibility that high-resolution, coupled, weather-ocean numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be utilised to predict future events. However, deterministic high-resolution NWP models still struggle with modelling convective systems with sufficient precision because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and incomplete observations. A way forward is proposed here to improve forecasting through post-processing of NWP model output by overlaying medium level wind fields with ocean bathymetry

The Subantarctic Front as a sedimentary conveyor belt for tsunamigenic submarine landslides

The Subantarctic Front (SAF), one of the three main jets of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), flows through a narrow gap in the North Scotia Ridge and then north-westward across the continental slope of Burdwood Bank, ~150 km south of the Falkland Islands. There, the SAF flows across a fold-and-thrust belt caused by oblique convergence at the active plate boundary between the Scotia Plate and South American Plate. We here use regional 2D and 3D seismic reflection data to show the interaction of the associated bottom currents with the active margin, particularly to understand the causes and consequences of a number of large submarine landslides located in the adjacent foredeep. Kinematic indicators from the landslide deposits show that they are derived from a single point source located in an embayment on the northern slope of Burdwood Bank, where we identify a large contourite drift deposit. This drift forms the depositional sink for an along-slope sediment routing system driven by currents associated with the SAF, with sediment being eroded from the Burdwood Terrace, transported ~200 km westward, and plastered against the middle-upper continental slope. The contourite drift is undercut by the core of the current, making the slope inherently unstable in this area. Numerical modelling of the landslides and resultant waves indicates the tsunamigenic potential of these events. Modelled peak wave elevations of up to 40 m inundate the southern coast of the Falklands for a ~100 km3 volume landslide, with a recurrence interval of 1 Ma or less. This research highlights preconditioning mechanisms for submarine failure on continental slopes dominated by strong ocean currents, and specifically, oceanographic controls on the frequency, magnitude and location of submarine landslides associated with contourite systems

Understanding and reducing the disaster risk of landslide-induced tsunamis: a short summary of the panel discussion in the World Tsunami Awareness Day Special Event of the Fifth World Landslide Forum

A World Tsunami Awareness Day Special Event was held in hybrid mode on 5 November 2021, during the Fifth World Landslide Forum, in Kyoto, Japan. In this context, a panel discussion was organized across America, Europe, and Asia, with the goal to better understand and reduce the disaster risk of landslide-induced tsunamis, consistent with the Kyoto Landslide Commitment 2020. This article presents a short summary of this panel discussion

Duration of breastfeeding and risk of SIDS: an individual participant data meta-analysis

CONTEXT: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is a leading cause of postneonatal infant mortality. Our previous meta-analyses showed that any breastfeeding is protective against SIDS with exclusive breastfeeding conferring a stronger effect.The duration of breastfeeding required to confer a protective effect is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between breastfeeding duration and SIDS. DATA SOURCES: Individual-level data from 8 case-control studies. STUDY SELECTION: Case-control SIDS studies with breastfeeding data. DATA EXTRACTION: Breastfeeding variables, demographic factors, and other potential confounders were identified. Individual-study and pooled analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 2267 SIDS cases and 6837 control infants were included. In multivariable pooled analysis, breastfeeding for <2 months was not protective (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68–1.22). Any breastfeeding ≥2 months was protective, with greater protection seen with increased duration (2–4 months: aOR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.44–0.82; 4–6 months: aOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.26–0.63; and >6 months: aOR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.22–0.61). Although exclusive breastfeeding for <2 months was not protective (aOR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.59–1.14), longer periods were protective (2–4 months: aOR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.42–0.87; 4–6 months: aOR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.29–0.74). LIMITATIONS: The variables collected in each study varied slightly, limiting our ability to include all studies in the analysis and control for all confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding duration of at least 2 months was associated with half the risk of SIDS. Breastfeeding does not need to be exclusive to confer this protection

Phased occupation and retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet in the southern North Sea: geomorphic and seismostratigraphic evidence of a dynamic ice lobe

Along the terrestrial margin of the southern North Sea, previous studies of the MIS 2 glaciation impacting eastern Britain have played a significant role in the development of principles relating to ice sheet dynamics (e.g. deformable beds), and the practice of reconstructing the style, timing, and spatial configuration of palaeo-ice sheets. These detailed terrestrially-based findings have however relied on observations made from only the outer edges of the former ice mass, as the North Sea Lobe (NSL) of the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) occupied an area that is now almost entirely submarine (c.21–15 ka). Compounded by the fact that marine-acquired data have been primarily of insufficient quality and density, the configuration and behaviour of the last BIIS in the southern North Sea remains surprisingly poorly constrained. This paper presents analysis of a new, integrated set of extensive seabed geomorphological and seismo-stratigraphic observations that both advances the principles developed previously onshore (e.g. multiple advance and retreat cycles), and provides a more detailed and accurate reconstruction of the BIIS at its southern-most extent in the North Sea. A new bathymetry compilation of the region reveals a series of broad sedimentary wedges and associated moraines that represent several terminal positions of the NSL. These former still-stand ice margins (1–4) are also found to relate to newly-identified architectural patterns (shallow stacked sedimentary wedges) in the region's seismic stratigraphy (previously mapped singularly as the Bolders Bank Formation). With ground-truthing constraint provided by sediment cores, these wedges are interpreted as sub-marginal till wedges, formed by complex subglacial accretionary processes that resulted in till thickening towards the former ice-sheet margins. The newly sub-divided shallow seismic stratigraphy (at least five units) also provides an indication of the relative event chronology of the NSL. While there is a general record of south-to-north retreat, seismic data also indicate episodes of ice-sheet re-advance suggestive of an oscillating margin (e.g. MIS 2 maximum not related to first incursion of ice into region). Demonstrating further landform interdependence, geographically-grouped sets of tunnel valleys are shown to be genetically related to these individual ice margins, providing clear insight into how meltwater drainage was organised at the evolving termini of this dynamic ice lobe. The newly reconstructed offshore ice margins are found to be well correlated with previously observed terrestrial limits in Lincolnshire and E. Yorkshire (Holderness) (e.g. MIS 2 maximum and Withernsea Till). This reconstruction will hopefully provide a useful framework for studies targeting the climatic, mass-balance, and external glaciological factors (i.e. Fennoscandian Ice Sheet) that influenced late-stage advance and deglaciation, important for accurately characterising both modern and palaeo-ice sheets

Did a submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?

Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40 m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) The rupture centroids obtained by tsunami inversions are biased about 60 km NNE of that obtained by the Global CMT Project. Based on an analysis of seismic and geodetic data, together with recorded tsunami waveforms, we propose that, while the primary source of the tsunami was the vertical displacement of the seafloor due to the earthquake, an additional tsunami source is also required. We infer the location of the proposed additional source based on an analysis of the travel times of higher-frequency tsunami waves observed at nearshore buoys. We further propose that the most likely additional tsunami source was a submarine mass failure (SMF—i.e., a submarine landslide). A comparison of pre- and post-tsunami bathymetric surveys reveals tens of meters of vertical seafloor movement at the proposed SMF location, and a slope stability analysis confirms that the horizontal acceleration from the earthquake was sufficient to trigger an SMF. Forward modeling of the tsunami generated by a combination of the earthquake and the SMF reproduces the recorded on-, near- and offshore tsunami observations well, particularly the high-frequency component of the tsunami waves off Sanriku, which were not well simulated by previous models. The conclusion that a significant part of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was generated by an SMF source has important implications for estimates of tsunami hazard in the Tohoku region as well as in other tectonically similar regions